Follow the stocks and their distribution networks. Everything is down. Convergence of multiple factors: GLPs, young people not drinking as much, etc. and now new push for cancer labeling.

Hard seltzers and similar items are doing great. More traditional booze sales are softening.

Has been for over six months. Too many producers that can’t afford storage which is in very short supply. A lot of leverage in the industry and many thought rates were going back down. You could buy a barrell of new make for $200 in October. Alot of firms tried to fire sale bourbon in barrels at year end but clean balance sheets but there was very little buying. Many of the newer producers are dead especially the folks that were buying bourbon from the mass producers then aging and branding it. Pappy won’t fall to far though. Regardless of tariffs it is still swarmed in auctions and by the foreign crowd. The brands with pretty bottles but mediocre bourbon are “toasted”. The cocktail culture from Covid is also falling off. If you want to buy a barrel of bourbon to store at your farm or house it’s a very good time to buy one.

O’Daniel

it's good, but not 5x the price of real good stuff good.

Pappy and a reasonable priced bottle of quality bourbon.

The question is, has BT increased production of Pappy, which I doubt they have, but if they have, when did they start and when will that production enter the market. There is a multi-year lead time in bourbon. I would also suspect that the big name stuff will be the last to come down. The driver of the bust is over saturation of the market, so the impact will first be some of the new brands/products that are being introduced that won't sell.

There is some great stuff in the $30-$50 range and a lot of stuff just like it in the $50-$90 range in a fancy bottle.

product at inflated prices. But once the boom ends, the strong will survive. The good bottles at each price point are likely to stay strong and the distilleries that threw something out there just to ride the wave are going to die.

and toured several distilleries (Trace, Beam, Woodford, Makers, and we stopped at a couple others too). One of the questions I asked all of them was how do you business plan when your product has a 3 to 9 year lead time? There has been a tremendous uptick in bourbon in recent years, kinda replacing the craft beer boom of the 2000's. How do you position yourself for seismic shifts like that? I never really did get a good answer since I was asking tour guides and not VP's of marketing or product development. But that seems a uniquely challenging business planning problem.

At least not with Pappy.

It dropped significantly after the pandemic when it got really hard to find cars, and the area markups were crazy, but I've seen prices come down a bit over the last few months. Talking about prices on cars like Boxers, Caymans, BMW M-cars, etc. If someone wanted to sell their "driver level" car, they've probably just missed their window for max profit. But if they have a true classic, those are still holding (or increasing) their value. Just saw Steve McQueen's old 917 is going up for auction, and that's probably going to sell for $25M+. It's changed hands several times since Steve owned it, and I think the last time it sold was in the late 70s/early 80s when it sold for <$20K. It might have changed hands since then, but that one sale really stood out to me...lol