The B1G wants ND and UNC, but if these schools aren’t available then they will take FSU as their 19th member and just wait to expand further for a few years. The SEC wants UNC and Virginia, but if these schools aren’t available, they will just wait to expand for a few years. Believing that the SEC & B1G are going to take a bunch of ACC schools all at once is nothing more than wishful thinking because the networks won’t pay for all of them especially in this environment. There is likely also a home in the Big 12 for two or four additional members with blessings from both ESPN & Fox, but as to who those schools would be is anyone’s guess at this point. ESPN at their sole discretion can notify the ACC by February 2025 that they are ending the conference’s media rights deal in 2027. That is only a little more than a year away, and without the ESPN media contract, the ACC ceases to exist in any form other than name only. We just watched this play out in the PAC-12 over the last year. There is a big advantage to trying to be available now as opposed to later and that appears to be part of FSU’s strategy. If we aren’t there yet, we probably are fast approaching the point where it is every man (conference member) for himself. TV money has become the life blood of conferences and their schools. For better or worse, there is no surviving at the highest level without it. IMO, this is the harsh reality of college athletics today.

How do you avoid an anti-trust suit? How many US Senators do you need to not piss off? I don't think you can have a television affiliation-based P2 and survive the courts/congress. I think you have to provide access to any school willing to meet a specific set of qualifications. And then the schools/fanbases can decide how competitive they want to be. How many is that? I'd guess 50-75 in a new D1. ** Edited by daveinop at 1/2/2024, 10:57:17 AM

UNC, NCSU, VT, and UVA. If Clemson is left out, they go to the B12. If Miami is left out, they stay with the AVV privates (academics and ND), or they too go to the B12. Louisville and Pitt go to the B12. The ACC remains intact with GT, Duke, Syracuse, BC, Stanford, Cal, SMU, Wake, ND (partial), Miami?, maybe WSU and OSU, then add Rice. There are a couple others they could add like Tulane, but that all depends on the ESPN contract. Their contract will come in about $20M or so. The B12 doesn't just absorb the rest. Just a theory, and is how the Big 12 guy sees it at this point in time.

1. How big will the P2 get? 42 2. How inclusive will the CFP-12 (or whatever the number is after 2026) be? 16, but 2-4 highest ranked Conference Champions get automatic bids, so they are going to cut them as fast as they can cut them. (If P2 break off happens soon, and there are only 2 Conferences, well there will be 2) 3. To what degree will the P2 try to save or destroy the ACC/B12/G5s as a D1 entity? Not destroy them, but break off from them and have their own playoff and basketball tournament. 4. Does Notre Dame continue to successfully navigate the unpredictable waters of football independence? “If” the P2 breaks away, they make them join to participate at tier 1 IMHO. It will be the B1G of course. 5. Where do you see Virginia Tech, conference affiliation wise, by the end of the decade? I want the SEC because I like a regional conference and most of our alums/fans live in the DMV and South of DMV, but I “mostly” want to go anywhere Virginia goes, because I think with so many teams in a Conference it’s the only way IMHO we keep playing them in most if not all sports in the regular season. In other words I could see OCC games only happen in playoffs and tournaments, it’s just too many teams to play in the Conference.

Virginia is currently the 12th largest state by population and #10 by household income. I think we’ll surpass NJ in population within a decade and Michigan in two. North Carolina stands at #9 in population and is growing quickly. Virginia dwarfs SEC footprint states MS,AR, etc. in population and wealth. North Carolina has much lower income but is considerably larger by headcount. NC and Virginia contain about six percent of the U.S. population and, at least in the case of VA, is adjacent the seat of US government. That tells me that if our governor and NC’s governor join hands they can probably dictate a destination for four state schools. That’s about the best we can hope for I think. I guess it’s also worth noting that, assuming that Hawai’i and similar states do not become football hotbeds, NC and VA constitute nearly 10% of the population that matters in these calculations. ** Edited by lawhokie at 1/1/2024, 1:40:35 PM ** Edited by lawhokie at 1/1/2024, 1:49:43 PM

#9 In population. I would expect with its upward rapid trend in population growth the household income ranking will eventually rise as well. Another item of interest is that Maryland is #1 in household income while ranking #18 in population.

Virginia absorbed their half of DC, so why not? Maryland would gain a bunch of rich fans for UM.

And when you add New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Georgia, Florida, Texas, and California to that, how does the ACC map out population and income wise? It think well. If well, then the ACC should be able to continue one would think. Ripping it apart to stuff pieces in leagues that need no help is so bad for all involved.

I know we have small private schools, USC-w is a small private school, many of the Basketball champions like Villanova are small private schools. Many are saying we can never catch up, but I never see any facts proving that. *You mean if the ACC gets 3 in the playoff 12, it won’t matter? You mean if they start paying the Sweet 16 like they pay the playoff, it won’t matter? We have dominated the Sweet 16 for decades. Where are the financial/facts on this, and why aren’t they out there for everyone to see and be able to understand? *Not you HOO86, those saying it

the answer whether we want to admit it or not. TV drives the bus and TV ratings attract advertisers(the inflow) that compensates the ratings/content providers(the outflows). The preceding while simplistic and affected to limited degrees by slotting, time zone, population, alumni and followings, etc. is the reason why they make more and likely will continue to make more. Look at Clemson, despite their recent accomplishments, they do not rival the TV draws of Michigan or Ohio State, both programs that have accomplished significantly less in recent times. All the ACC can really do is WIN. Winning may still not produce the numbers but, winners cannot be ignored regardless of TV metrics because while fans are loyal they are also smart enough to recognize when a second rate product is being foisted upon them.

You say the ACC needs to win -- but winning is hard when you have fewer resources. It's hard to have the resources without fan support. Fan support is harder to come by for the conference as a whole when it has so many private schools and basketball-first schools. In order to win under those conditions, everything has to fall perfectly into place -- and Clemson had a 5-6 year run where that happened.

my point was of all the realistic alternatives, none necessarily good, the only one the ACC has a chance, no matter how minute, to control is winning.

I think the best thing VT can do is to enhance the brand as much as possible over the next 1-2 years. We need to WIN. We need to compete for conference titles, maybe make a playoff. We need games being broadcast on primetime with Lane rockin. Everything that made VT cool 25 years ago, we need to have again. That way, we'll be a desirable commodity when the ACC inevitably fails and schools are poached.

1. Minimum: 44, Maximum 52 2. 12 is the most efficient. The first round in 16 team field requires eight games, too many for the available TV slots. They would have to do it over two Saturdays… not happening. 3. The conferences will become a single Div I group administratively. The difference will be wealth gap. Those who can’t keep up financially will withdraw. B1G and SEC will intrude on their junior conferences when they get an itch for expansion. 4. Conferences will be nudged into ten-games in-conference schedules. Scheduling will become problematic for ND. NBC will persuade them to join The B1G. 5. Soooo many possibilities. The best case, IMO, is that VT, UVa, UNC, NC St join The SEC. Here’s how that could happen: FSU and Clemson (soon to announce) will give The B1G their much-desired Southern footprint. The SEC can’t keep that from happening. To prevent The B1G from taking the entire Eastern Seaboard, they will pay whatever is needed to bag the four aces in VA/NC. Alternative A: (More interesting). VT ends up with Pitt, Louisville, W. Virginia and Cincy in the Appalachian Division of The Big XII. Vicious cage fights every Saturday. 6. Bonus prediction. In 2032 The NCAA contract for March Madness ends. The Division I schools will move to their new regulatory body and start the new era of college basketball. The season calendar will be shifted to have less overlap with football. Hoops will be paid at their true value. Fox will try to lure Syracuse, BC, Duke, and GT into The B1G East. Those FB programs could join with Villanova (Patriot) and Georgetown (CAA), UMass and UConn to form The Atlantic Coast FB Conference. MARCH Madness Becomes MAYhem.

3. ACC is doomed and will ultimately lose the big football schools. Maybe it ends up surviving but as a G5 conference, same as the PAC. The B12 is the torn in all of this and complicates things...for awhile 1. 48-60 schools at the end in P2 (eventually pulling off top ACC and B12 teams) 2. 12 teams until the P2 gets full control and then go to 16 team playoff 4. yes until the very end when the P2 makes them join (maybe in a decade) 5. I think we make it into the P2 but no clue which side

Is important. I think we will end up in either Big12 or a leftover ACC and I think that will be fine for us and we will continue to have a good team and football culture in Blacksburg. IMO, we are just not a good fit for either the SEC or ACC because of the relatively low population in the area around our school. I don’t believe we have the tv rating or revenue potential for the super conferences. This is just my opinion. I don’t know what might happen, but we will be fine because our school and area loves football. I think we are in the same mold football-wise as WVU.

I never dreamed that my tigers were capable of winning national championships and I darn sure didn't expect much out of a little known coach with a very light resume. The moral of the story is dream big. If you have the right leadership (coaches AND a committed administration), it can be done.

You need to take those areas in mind when you talk about Virginia Tech, much like Penn State is all over the state of Pennsylvania. PS That doesn’t even take into account areas like Charlotte, Baltimore, Atlanta and many Baby Boomers moving to Florida for 6 months and a day to avoid state taxes.

That area is more isolated than the New River Valley area. At least Roanoke is nearby. Virginia Tech (VPI&StateU) represents the entire state, not just the Blacksburg area.

It’s a long way to the “hot” spots.

PSU lengthened the runway at their airport. Harrisburg is 90 miles away and Pittsburgh is a two hour plus drive if the weather is good.

Wish VT had a 7000 X 150 ft runway.

with Tech's future conference affiliation.

1. How big will the P2 get? 44 2. How inclusive will the CFP-12 (or whatever the number is after 2026) be? 16 3. To what degree will the P2 try to save or destroy the ACC/B12/G5s as a D1 entity?none 4. Does Notre Dame continue to successfully navigate the unpredictable waters of football independence? Yes 5. Where do you see Virginia Tech, conference affiliation wise, by the end of the decade? SEC

and all of my answers were identical to yours except for question #2 which I kept at 12. I thought the longest time on question #3 thinking maybe NCAA D-1 adds an additional level but realized that the G-5 wants the CFP money and wouldn't want their own playoff level like the FCS now has. There's also the possibility that the P-2 breaks away from the NCAA all together in 5 to 10 years but the chance of that happening is probably 10% at best. ** Edited by Old Line Hokie at 12/31/2023, 11:38:22 PM