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cvillehokie92 OP
Aug 31, 2023 at 03:59 PM ET
ACC Presidents meeting tomorrow

23 Replies

seekoHoG seekoHoG
I'm guessing the votes are there now. My question is there other teams that
have asked to be considered. WSU, OSU, Colorado St, Boise St ... I'm just throwing out the first teams that come to mind. It seems to me there are going to have to be more Western states added now or at least in the next few years.
mrcaniac mrcaniac
Nope
The ACC got the 2 biggest population states west of the Mississippi River, all the schools left now don't add anything to the tv contract. 80% of the US population lies to the east of the 98th meridian, only 20% of the population is west of it, and California makes up 65% of that 20%. So, about 7% of the US population resides in the states of WA, OR, AZ, NM, NV, ID, MT, WY, CO, UT, AK, HI, and the western parts of TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, and ND. That's why the loss of USC and UCLA killed the PAC12
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Stech
True on all of that, but Northern Cal is not Southern Cal, more
people in Southern Cal than Northern Cal. If we are going to do this on population and not football interest, why not grab a Southern Cal school too? Academic snobbery?
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tarheelblue
There's no SoCal team that gets great football TV ratings and is available.
** Edited by tarheelblue at 8/31/2023, 8:09:19 PM
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Stech
Most schools in the G5 don’t get great ratings, but when they join a P4,
things can change dramatically. Besides are you saying Cal Football and SMU football are great ratings? If we are going to do this, grab San Diego State and hope the trade up helps them like they hope SMU will in Dallas. Maybe they will get invited later, but if we are out there, get Southern California too.
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tarheelblue
If we have 2 schools in California, we don't need a third.
Cal and Stanford will probably get better TV ratings in Southern California than San Diego State anyway.
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Stech
Done a ton of business in Cal, So Cal & No Cal are 2 different states, they
don’t even like each other. Cable hook ups are dropping like a led weight, ratings are back and mean more each day. You will not get So Cal ratings with No Cal schools, ignoring that area is like ignoring the state of North Carolina, because you are in Virginia. Terrible business approach, and just shows we don’t know the markets.
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tarheelblue
People have been complaining about Syracuse and Pitt being dead weight
San Diego State would be much worse. At least Stanford and SMU are willing to pay their own way out of pocket and have good academics. San Diego State adds nothing. ** Edited by tarheelblue at 8/31/2023, 10:42:26 PM
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Stech
I don’t want expansion, but if you make a case for No Cal, you need So Cal.
I like regional conferences, but it really doesn’t matter, as your UNC Board of Trustees is against it.
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tarheelblue
B1G only has SoCal schools. I don't see them trying to add a NoCal school.
And UNC only gets 1 vote. It takes 4 to stop expansion. ** Edited by tarheelblue at 8/31/2023, 11:49:54 PM
Maroon Baboon Maroon Baboon
What is the minimum size does a state need to be for the ACC to consider
adding a school from that state? I'm thinking in terms of states that would be new to the ACC footprint, and in terms of TV money.
mrcaniac mrcaniac
Pretty much the top 15 in size
Roughly 25% of the US population is a pay-tv subscriber, so any new school would have to add about $20M a year in instate subscriptions to make sure that the other schools break even and not lose money. At roughly $1 a month for the instate fee, then divide the fee in half for ESPN's cut, there would need to be about 2M pay tv subs in the state, so a population of 8M+. So, TN, AZ, WA, NJ, MI, OH, IL. TheoreticallyRoughly 25% of the US population is a pay-tv subscriber, so any new school would have to add about $20M a year in instate subscriptions to make sure that the other schools break even and not lose money. At roughly $1 a month for the instate fee, then divide the fee in half for ESPN's cut, there would need to be about 2M pay tv subs in the state, so a population of 8M+. So, TN, AZ, WA, NJ, MI, OH, IL. Roughly 25% of the US population is a pay-tv subscriber, so any new school would have to add about $20M a year in instate subscriptions to make sure that the other schools break even and not lose money. At roughly $1 a month for the instate fee, then divide the fee in half for ESPN's cut, there would need to be about 2M pay tv subs in the state, so a population of 8M+. So, TN, AZ, WA, NJ, MI, OH, IL. Theoretically, SMU, Cal, and Stanford could add an additional $200M a year in subscriber fees to the ACC Network that would be split among the schools and ESPN.
Maroon Baboon Maroon Baboon
So would you take Memphis and/or Wazzu? And a question about Oregon State.
And I know the state of Oregon is under your threshold, but would it be worth it to take Oregon State for an additional travel partner for Stanford and Cal and possible Wazzu? For every West Coast team we take, that's one less trans-continental trip someone needs to make. Plus, they've been conference mates for generations.
mrcaniac mrcaniac
The distances between schools is unbelievable
San Francisco to Corvallis is close to 600 miles, and to Pullman is 850+ miles. Blacksburg to Tallahassee is almost 650 miles and I don't think anyone would think of VT and FSU as travel partners. As for Memphis, their location makes a lot of sense, but I'm not sure that they can afford the jump in moving up to the level of the ACC. If you look at UMCP and Rutgers, they are having a difficult time making the move to the B1G because they just didn't have the income production before joining. Getting that extra TV money meant that they were getting more, but now they were going to have to spend more, and that is why they just can't gain traction. It's the financial health of athletic departments that are why the conferences spend time vetting schools before inviting them so that they know if the school can actually compete at that level for the next 25+ years.
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tarheelblue
Illinois, Ohio, and maybe Michigan.
But the bag thing is that those states are all losing population (or at least aren't really growing much). ** Edited by tarheelblue at 8/31/2023, 8:13:48 PM
Victor Tango Victor Tango
I don't think any of those have the academic pedigree
to get the votes. Tulane would be a good travel partner for SMU and get the ACC into another large state. One item I would like to see come out of this would be for ESPN strike a deal with Apple or Amazon to stream some games. Take Apple's Pac-12 offer, add it to the pot and give them some weekly games.
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tarheelblue
Louisiana isn't a large state.
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VTBoar
Assuming there is a vote, any chance there will be a surprise when the
results are released, like VT to the ACC was? If you think there is a chance what do you think it will be? Saturday can't get here quick enough.
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Hokie12thman
A surprise for me - would be if the negotiations delays were partly due
to concessions for those wanting to leave the conference - ie promised something for their future exit in exchange for a yes vote ** Edited by Hokie12thman at 8/31/2023, 5:10:49 PM
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2hhoop3
I think if you have to......
promise somebody something for their future exit in order to gain their vote for a current expansion you probably shouldn't be doing the current expansion to start with.
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Hokie12thman
I wonder if ACC knows it’s inevitable - so their back filling now as a
hedge - just in case - the conference falls apart a yr or 13 yrs from now
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hokieZ71
I think differently.
It’s possible in 2031, if FSU and Clemson leave that the ACC could be better looking than the Big XII to WVU, Cincinnati and UCF. Potentially Arizona State, Arizona and Utah. The ACC just needs to keep its membership at 15. Thinking that the Big XII is automatically signing a bigger contract in 2031 or whenever their next deal starts is not an automatic. The ACC’s payout, which is virtually even with the Big XII, is guaranteed through 2036. (and with step increases) With less travel and similar money, WVU, Cincinnati and UCF may be open to an east coast conference. ** Edited by hokieZ71 at 8/31/2023, 5:29:26 PM ** Edited by hokieZ71 at 8/31/2023, 5:30:47 PM
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Stech
I could see that, but I wonder if they would go public right now with that.