Facts?? Evidence ?? His gut feelings like many are only worth a cup of coffee

as the ACC knows, can be a double edged sword.

B1G will eventually call.

Do they deserve to be one of the top 40-60 programs? Sure they do, but it's my contention it will not happen. The PAC will stick around unless they refuse to sign the GOR, and then the ones that want to leave to the 12, will. If that happens, it will be a sad day for college football. The remaining Cal schools, Oregon and Washington, and a couple of others will be on an island. The Big10 will not extend an invitation unless FOX is willing to pay them - the current Universities in the Big10, will not take a pay cut to include them. People are delusional that this is a move to have a break away league. The PAC needs to sign no matter what the media deal is. The Big12 as we know them now - some REALLY good programs - decided their best bet was to stick together - the PAC should come to the same conclusion. You guys in the ACC need to as well.

They are making the best of it. But let's face it, not a single school in the conference is coveted by the P2. I don't even think the ACC wanted any of the schools (which is a mistake on the ACC's part IMO, but still.) ** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 5/29/2023, 1:28:24 PM

Sorry but the only reason for schools outside the traditional footprint of the big 8 to consider big 12, is if the alternative is regulation to a non P5. And Washington and Oregon will only do with maximum flexibility to bail when they can.

If they do, it’ll be for this next contract. Or it will be with the condition they don’t sign a GOR. The B1G wont leave USC and UCLA on an island for long. Then they’ll follow in the line of Nebraska, aTm, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma and every valuable property the Big XII has ever had. They’ll leave. The same will happen with the ACC. The same is happening with the almost extinct Pac12. The Big XII will end up with every decent school that the B1G and SEC doesn’t want. (You referred to them as “some really good programs”). You’ll be 3rd place by default when the ACC crumbles. The Big XII will end up being the Big XX, with “some really good programs”. The best Big XII teams will play for the NCAA football championship most every year because the SEC and Big XII will leave the NCAA in football and take the playoff that makes money with them. And the NCAA will let them because if the NCAA doesn’t and say, threatens to exclude them from its Basketball Tournament, the SEC and B1G will have Kentucky, Michigan, UNC, Kansas (yep, that Kansas, it’s coming), Texas, Florida, UCLA, USC, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame, Virginia, Michigan State, Wisconsin and more. So many large, National fanbases that it could have its own basketball tournament simultaneously with the NCAA and wreck the one money maker the NCAA has. The Big XII needs the PAC and ACC to stay together to help the Big XII think being in 3rd place is important. It won’t be important in 10 years. I wish it weren’t true. But this is where it’s headed.

The B12 isn't going to approach P2 money when they start adding all of the "left behind" schools, no matter who they add. If Oregon and Washington were that valuable, they would have already joined the B1X. They still might join, but that will be at the detriment of the other P2 schools. If you can't add a school that's more valuable than what every school is currently receiving, everyone takes a payout hit. It appears the ACC is destined to be #3 financially, even with our current deadwood. If the B12 goes to 24, 34, or whatever, their TV contract will continue to drop for each member as they add them...the same goes for the ACC. No conference left outside of the P2 will be able to touch P2 money. Even if the ACC added ND, the conference still wouldn't come close.

"The third best conference" - Is that what we are down too? Maybe in terms of media money, but the difference between the 12 and ACC are not so different. I don't see the BIG and SEC braking away to "keep all the playoff money". There is way too much football content out there, and if they want to keep on getting those media contracts, they will need the rest of college football to be healthy. The 20% needs the 80%, or they do not exist. You are right, the Bi12 needs the PAC and ACC, but not so they can be ranked "third". It is so there will be a robust CFB playoff system where we all can compete. At what point did this become a win or loss depending on your media contract, or what conference you are in. The conferences do not play the games, the teams do. Texas, for instance, has always been "richer' then TCU or Baylor - by far (it's never been close). What has changed here? They make more money - by far. Nothing has changed, and teams like TCU can go on a good run, and win it all. The board room, and the negotiating table, are not the king makers. Coaches, recruiting, administrations, and alumni support make the kings.

is certainly possible. Winning it all not so much. Ask yourself how many darkhorses have won or even played for a football national championship in the playoff or poll eras? CFP expansion likely makes that possibility even more remote.

** Edited by 2hhoop3 at 5/29/2023, 11:44:55 AM

But I think your comment about the “next TV contract” is the crux of what happens moving forward. We are reaching the point of diminishing returns for the P2. They can’t add schools and keep earning even more money. Since this is all about a recruiting arms race and a monetized, pay to win structure through NIL, schools are going to want to control as much money as they can. The ACC has 7 schools (at least) that publicly want more money to compete with the SEC and B1G. As you said, we aren’t doing that bad now. ACC schools just got a record payout. The ACC Network is very profitable. And we are projected to keep falling farther behind the P2 in money. The NFL dominates TV with only 32 fanbases. But there is no competition for those fanbases. I agree with you that, in its current state, the P2 needs the rest of the P5 to not only be included, but be competitive in the playoff. TCU beating Michigan was great. The UGA-TCU game was bad, and puts on display how far everybody is behind UGA, Bama and maybe LSU. Those three plus Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma dominating the 4 playoff spots each year, is terrible for TV. Fans of other schools will start to lose interest, and ratings will suffer. This new playoff with the top conference champs getting auto bids and first round byes is a ruse. This just means that SEC, B1G and ND at large bids will control home game revenue from first round games and get matched up with overmatched teams as the $$ gap widens. Exactly what they want. But, if the games aren’t competitive (and they won’t be as long as the $$ gap widens), TV ratings will suffer. Which means it will be the TV companies that push for consolidation of programs and equal revenue sharing to bring balance. Who, outside of UGA wants to watch UGA crush TCU or Cincinnati? Nobody. At some point, for this all to work out, parity will have to be included. The money will need to be distributed evenly among all participants, like the NFL. But I think we are going to see the most powerful leagues try to exclude as many other schools as possible to get to the sweet spot of controlling as many eyeballs and keeping them interested. Large, state schools need to be included. The schools from different time zones need to be included proportionally to their demographics. Like the NFL. It’s like a game of Chinese checkers. The SEC, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 12, ACC and G5 all have a starting slot on the board. But right now, only the SEC and Big Ten are getting all of their pieces at the start of the game. The Big XII and ACC get half of their pieces and the PAC 12 gets maybe 2 and the G5 gets a single piece. But they all occupy an entire slot on the board, even with fewer pieces. The leagues with fewer pieces can’t win, so it’s not a really entertaining game. The SEC and Big Ten want more starting spots on the board and they can only take them from the others. The PAC 12 is about to give theirs up. But every time the SEC and B1G take a slot, if revenue sharing is equalized, they fill that slot up with playing pieces. Eventually the SEC will have 3 starting slots and the B1G will have the other 3. And if they have the right pieces across the country and each piece has an equal enough shot at winning, the game will be more competitive and entertaining to watch. ** Edited by hokieZ71 at 5/29/2023, 9:27:46 AM