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Everything you’ve said is true and what has been great for everybody.
But I think your comment about the “next TV contract” is the crux of what happens moving forward. We are reaching the point of diminishing returns for the P2. They can’t add schools and keep earning even more money. Since this is all about a recruiting arms race and a monetized, pay to win structure through NIL, schools are going to want to control as much money as they can. The ACC has 7 schools (at least) that publicly want more money to compete with the SEC and B1G. As you said, we aren’t doing that bad now. ACC schools just got a record payout. The ACC Network is very profitable. And we are projected to keep falling farther behind the P2 in money.
The NFL dominates TV with only 32 fanbases. But there is no competition for those fanbases. I agree with you that, in its current state, the P2 needs the rest of the P5 to not only be included, but be competitive in the playoff. TCU beating Michigan was great. The UGA-TCU game was bad, and puts on display how far everybody is behind UGA, Bama and maybe LSU. Those three plus Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma dominating the 4 playoff spots each year, is terrible for TV. Fans of other schools will start to lose interest, and ratings will suffer.
This new playoff with the top conference champs getting auto bids and first round byes is a ruse. This just means that SEC, B1G and ND at large bids will control home game revenue from first round games and get matched up with overmatched teams as the $$ gap widens. Exactly what they want. But, if the games aren’t competitive (and they won’t be as long as the $$ gap widens), TV ratings will suffer. Which means it will be the TV companies that push for consolidation of programs and equal revenue sharing to bring balance. Who, outside of UGA wants to watch UGA crush TCU or Cincinnati? Nobody.
At some point, for this all to work out, parity will have to be included. The money will need to be distributed evenly among all participants, like the NFL. But I think we are going to see the most powerful leagues try to exclude as many other schools as possible to get to the sweet spot of controlling as many eyeballs and keeping them interested.
Large, state schools need to be included. The schools from different time zones need to be included proportionally to their demographics. Like the NFL.
It’s like a game of Chinese checkers. The SEC, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 12, ACC and G5 all have a starting slot on the board. But right now, only the SEC and Big Ten are getting all of their pieces at the start of the game. The Big XII and ACC get half of their pieces and the PAC 12 gets maybe 2 and the G5 gets a single piece. But they all occupy an entire slot on the board, even with fewer pieces. The leagues with fewer pieces can’t win, so it’s not a really entertaining game. The SEC and Big Ten want more starting spots on the board and they can only take them from the others. The PAC 12 is about to give theirs up. But every time the SEC and B1G take a slot, if revenue sharing is equalized, they fill that slot up with playing pieces. Eventually the SEC will have 3 starting slots and the B1G will have the other 3. And if they have the right pieces across the country and each piece has an equal enough shot at winning, the game will be more competitive and entertaining to watch.
** Edited by hokieZ71 at 5/29/2023, 9:27:46 AM
Thread Replies (14)
Dial being turned up on B12 talking to P12 schools
-- clemson81nc
May 28, 2023 at 04:41 PM ET
clemson81nc
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05/28/23 04:41 PM ET
Just another so called expert who has a podcast
-- Mercury
May 29, 2023 at 08:07 AM ET
Mercury
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05/29/23 08:07 AM ET
I heard that Oregon and Washington will not sign a long term GOR, which,
-- Big12 guy
May 28, 2023 at 04:56 PM ET
Big12 guy
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05/28/23 04:56 PM ET
I don't think so. They do not bring 80M +.
-- Big12 guy
May 28, 2023 at 11:16 PM ET
Big12 guy
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05/28/23 11:16 PM ET
The BigXII didn't have any real options but to stick together.
-- Maroon Baboon
May 29, 2023 at 01:24 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
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05/29/23 01:24 PM ET
Neither will the left out ACC members. Look at the PAC**
-- Big12 guy
May 29, 2023 at 03:26 PM ET
Big12 guy
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05/29/23 03:26 PM ET
The Big XIi is everyone's safety school
-- Vippie1
May 29, 2023 at 08:01 AM ET
Vippie1
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05/29/23 08:01 AM ET
They aren’t going to the Big XII.
-- hokieZ71
May 29, 2023 at 07:52 AM ET
hokieZ71
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05/29/23 07:52 AM ET
A conference's value is what someone is willing to pay
-- EDGEMAN
May 29, 2023 at 10:52 AM ET
EDGEMAN
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05/29/23 10:52 AM ET
You could be right, but we don't know how this plays out.
-- Big12 guy
May 29, 2023 at 08:25 AM ET
Big12 guy
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05/29/23 08:25 AM ET
Everything you’ve said is true and what has been great for everybody.
◄
-- hokieZ71
May 29, 2023 at 09:24 AM ET
hokieZ71
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05/29/23 09:24 AM ET
Oregon and Washington will eventually be in big **
-- MrFantastic!
May 29, 2023 at 06:25 AM ET
MrFantastic!
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05/29/23 06:25 AM ET