ACC Situation Perspective from David Hale via Twitter
"The past week has been filled with a lot of speculation on the future of the ACC, so I figured I'd put together a little thread to clarify some of the issues and options the league has.
This may be long but the TL;DR is this: THERE IS NO EASY ANSWER."
"Start with this: In the past 12 months, Jim Phillips & ACC leadership have gotten rid of divisions & built the framework for a success-based revenue sharing model. Those were non-starter talks for a decade. It may ultimately be band-aids on bullet wounds, but it's commendable."
"Now, let's take stock of where the ACC stands. ... While financials for 2021-22 aren't available yet, expectation is a distribution of about $43M/school -- ahead by a bit of what we expect from the Big 12 and $30-40M/year behind where B1G & SEC will be w/new TV deals."
Link:
@ADavidHaleJoint
27 Replies
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WBGV
3y
Total amount distributed by each Power 5 conference PER SCHOOL in 2021-22 fiscal year via @usatodaysports
Big Ten $58.8 million
SEC $49.9 million
Big 12 $42-$44.9 million
ACC $37.9-$41.3 million
Pac-12 $37 million*
The Big 12 distribution for 2022-23 is expected to pay close to $50M per school.
* “The Pac-12 is expected to file an amended return for 2022 because of “a possible restatement” of its audited financial statements. This is tied back to a $50 million overpayment that Comcast made over a period of at least five years to the conference-owned Pac-12 Networks.” - Pete Mundo
** Edited by WBGV at 5/19/2023, 9:33:03 PM
(In response to this post by hokieball)
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2hhoop3
3y
the expected Big 12 distribution of $50M per school for 2022-2023?
(In response to this post by WBGV)
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HOO86
3y
It's 2024-2025 when they drop off back to mid 30s. There is a big bump from the Texas/Oklahoma exit fees, but most of that is allocated to pay for the new additions to get them to the mid 30s.
The ACC will be around the upper 40s low 50s then. What ACC schools are upset about is SEC/B1G will be around mid 70s to 80 then. ACC will be clear third by doing nothing, but still behind.
Any talk about ACC schools going Big 12 is David Swain nonsense. We're back to the wild rumors like 2012.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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HOO86
3y
That's because we didn't get the Orange Bowl money in 2021. It was the year OB was part of CFP. Georgia beat Michigan in a semifinal. Also we'll get a full year of Comcast ACC Network revenue verses half in 2021-2022. Comcast started in 2022.
(In response to this post by WBGV)
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Mercury
3y
about 6-7 months ago Whit was asked if VT be left out due to the big pay rights difference in SEC and Big 10.
His answer is VT has looked at the situation, be nice, but they feel with the VT financials, if they could get 10-15 more that would ensure VT is competitive at the national level (He didnt say how to get the 10 million, rights??? adjusted distributions? or more contributions. Actually, I think that's the going discussion with the rest of the ACC institutions.
(In response to this post by hokieball)
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Vippie1
3y
Not only will it answer a ton of questions it will limit the unrealistic fantasies and save bandwidth
(In response to this post by hokieball)
You are making huge assumptions, that folks will read, comprehend and
Be able to have a rational discussion without involving their own wants/emotions. That's one of the main reasons I haven't posted about it. I was extremely happy when we joined the ACC, but it didn't take long for me to begin to realize the ACC "weren't our people".
I don't know what the answer is, but the ACC as it stands isn't it.
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
3y
"The ACC has trailed the B1G/SEC in revenue for YEARS by $10-15M/school/year and it's still managed to win champs. But that gap is going to grow starting in 2023-24 and will keep doing so. That's the existential problem Alford and others are so concerned about."
"So, what can be done about it?
Based on my reporting, there are 5 options:
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in court
Let's look at each in more detail..."
"Option 1: Everyone waits. The anger this week stemmed from "the 7" but that outrage was largely by design. FSU, Clemson, UNC & others CANNOT wait on this & Alford, in particular, is driving home a sense of urgency that being a half-billion behind SEC by 2036 is untenable."
(In response to this post by hokieball)
3y
"Untenable why though? Hasn't the ACC always made less than the SEC and B1G and still won champs? Yes! And in all likelihood, if this was 2018 and the gap stayed around $15-20M, it'd be OK. But there are 2 bigger issues at play now..."
"Dan Radakovich had a very important quote this week: "The gap is just not about the money. It's about schools being able to take those dollars and translate it into potentially NIL opportunities for student athletes." This isn't how NIL is supposed to work, but it's happening."
"More importantly, the courts could soon erase the middle man & determine athletes are employees w/salaries from schools. That'd be the end for the ACC, which is why Phillips was in DC lobbying Congress to nix employee convo & halt future litigation. That's not likely though."
(In response to this post by hokieball)
3y
"It's more than buying the best players tho. Multiple ADs have suggested the perception of a "Power 2" could make recruiting outside the SEC/B1G impossible. Just look how much Aresco has put into fighting the P5 label. Phillips acknowledged it's already a concern."
"Option 2: The ACC adds ND to get a new TV deal bridging the $ gap. Not happening. The notion the Irish would join the ACC was always unlikely... but it at least got lip service. Not now. Swarbrick wasn't in Amelia Island & no one I've talked to even has it on their radar."
"What about other expansion options? ACC has looked at a few, including Oregon, Washington, SMU and West Virginia. From what I've been told, the $$ just aren't there. I can explain why but honestly, you don't want to hear the TV minutiae."
(In response to this post by hokieball)
3y
"That said, there are some admins who are frustrated the ACC isn't considering some more aggressive expansion tactics to at least do *something*. I've heard some very outside the box ideas that are at least intriguing. But bigger issue is this should've happened years ago."
"I know nothing of the behind-the-scenes beyond what ACC admins have told me, but I am also doubtful that Option 3 happens without adding ND. ESPN is invested in the ACC (and 50/50 partners on ACCN) so ACC survival is important, but timelines for network vs ADs are very diff"
"In the short term, ACC hired Fish Bait to look into ways to work with ESPN on "new revenue streams." I'm a bit dubious this will amount to much that really moves the needle. Ex. ACC wants to give schools more control over local ads but again, what's in it for ESPN? Not much."
(In response to this post by hokieball)
3y
"I do think ACC has real value to ESPN that it does not want to a) lose to FOX/B1G or b) have to pay tons more for in a new SEC agreement in a few years and 3) devalue a network it's 50/50 partners on. But even if ESPN opened the coffers, ACC isn't getting close to SEC $."
"Option 4: The Magnificent 7 dissolves the league! Few things: 1) That name is a made-up joke from McMurphy. No AD was calling it that. 2) There have been LOTS of side convos among schools: The 7 mentioned have talked. So have smaller groups. So have schools outside the 7."
"Yes, those 7 had lawyers review the GoR. So did most of the other 7. "You'd be stupid not to," one AD said. And no AD would confirm a nuclear option is even possible legally. Me & @aadelsonESPN wrote about this in early March..."
(In response to this post by hokieball)
3y
"But let's indulge the idea. As noted, the B12 isn't more $ and no more than maybe 5 schools are likely to have an SEC/B1G invite (and maybe not that many). So why would they blow up the ACC now? Answer: They wouldn't. An AD from The 7 on this plan: "Completely absurd.""
"That leaves us with Option 5: Fight the GoR in court. Ultimately, I think this is the only remotely likely outcome... and nobody is eager to do it. It will be an option of last resort that will be ugly, costly and lengthy. See: Texas/OU spending $100M to leave ONE YEAR early."
"I've talked to a few folks w/firsthand knowledge who feel they could put together a "compelling" legal case... but if they thought it was an easy winner, it'd have happened already & to leave w/o legal release from the GoR would be impossible for an ACC team."
(In response to this post by hokieball)
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WBGV
3y
The magnificent seven schools (UNC, NC State, Miami, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia and Virginia Tech) were not meeting in secrecy to discuss the floral arrangements at the corporate offices.
The revelation that half of the conference was secretly meeting behind the commissioners back and the backs of the other members to plot the destruction of the ACC can’t just be explained away with kumbaya comments. If they thought that the dissolution option wasn’t even a possibility then why would they have bothered to have secret meetings?
What actions will the other schools that weren’t included in the secret meetings now take to secure their futures? This cloak-and-dagger story is just beginning.
(In response to this post by hokieball)
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2hhoop3
3y
I see. First, the cute little name was a media creation just like the feigned indignation over schools meeting and exploring their options. Everybody has and will continue to study their options and if not, it is because they are being negligent or lazy. The same goes for any that might have really been surprised, they were just not paying attention. The media created this story, as they often do, likely at the behest of one or more but, not all 7 schools named. Separate, but similar, conversations among a group of schools does not constitute a group meeting.
(In response to this post by WBGV)
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WBGV
3y
Yea. Right. Every conference has a magnificent seven including the SEC, Big 12, and B1G that meets in secrecy behind their commissioner's back. You can't possibly be this naive.
"Trust no one. Not even your own shadow. Mine's been acting shady."
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
3y
you are the perfect Brett Yormark shill, ignorant and compliant. Trot on back to West By God Virginia where you MIGHT find somebody to buy your BS.
(In response to this post by WBGV)
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WBGV
3y
Not selling anything. I live no where near WV. Yormark isn’t even part of this story. If you would have only taken the time to read the linked articles on realignment made available to you in the past, the revelations this week of secret meetings wouldn’t have been such a shock to you and others. Making things personal prevents you from seeing reality.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
3y
just fine and the fact is you are a troll who brings no knowledge or value to the board. Your constant links provide no revelations and mostly just regurgitate the smart, although BS, PR plan Yormark has devised employing a circular reporting loop comprised of his witting or unwitting shills. Everybody can see your history and mine and make their own judgements as to our credibility, knowledge and motivations.
Everything you post has a decidedly Big 12 bent and usually very little real substance or fact. When you are actually challenged to provide facts you go silent, just like you have done on your most recent claims of future projected Big 12 payouts of $50 million.
(In response to this post by WBGV)
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WBGV
3y
You have accused me of being a B1G troll, a SEC troll, and a Big 12 troll on the same conference realignment board just at different times. And you have done the same to others when they have said something that you don’t enjoy hearing. I’ll play your silly game just once because there isn’t a source out there that someone who is closed minded as you would ever accept. Replying to you in the past has proven to be futile. And for the record, you are the one who shifted this dialog once again away from the ACC to other conferences.
“According to Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard, the total annual payout to each team will be approximately 50 million per school. That amount has now been confirmed by various outlets.”
Link:
https://www.si.com/college/byu/football/report-big-12-reaches-new-media-deal-increases-annual-payout
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
3y
accused you of being a B1G or SEC troll, only a Big 12 troll and I would challenge you to show otherwise. The report you link is all part of the carefully crafted circular reporting with NO ACTUAL CONFIRMED FACTS Yormark produced back in late October and early November of 2022. I challenge you to link even one article where there are named network execs and Big 12 Commisioner's office personnel that confirm the agreement specifics, note unnamed sources stating "reported amounts" does not qualify nor does "confirmed by various outlets" referencing other outlets in the same loop working off the initial spin.
The only thing silly, and also sad, is the games you try and play on this board. Your listing of individual payouts Per School above being the most recent. You conveniently omit that the Big 12 is 5 of 5 in total payout. You then double down by editorializing on the $50 million that if it happens is OU and UT foregone distributions.
(In response to this post by WBGV)
3y
"Financially, an exit fee is 3x annual revenue (appx $120M). But the GoR isn't just about money. It means a team cannot broadcast its games because the rights to broadcast are owned by the ACC. It'd be like selling someone else's house."
"So now what? Options 1-4 have a close to 0% chance of happening & Option 5 is expensive & risky. All this should help explain why a) schools are considering absolutely anything and b) nothing has happened yet. But maybe there's another option, too..."
"Phillips has routinely said there is no "magic bullet" but the revenue issue may be overcome by a combination of moves. That's why the "success initiatives" plan from this week matters. It's not a fix, but it's a step. So, is there a round-about path to a solution? Maybe."
(In response to this post by hokieball)
3y
"1 problem: Success initiatives could mean an extra $10+M/year per Alford... IF you're successful. Miss the CFP though and it doesn't help at all. (Indeed, you're worse off than if CFP $ was divided evenly as it is now.) And even w/CFP... still a big $ margin w/SEC & B1G."
"That's problem No. 2: It's not *just* about getting more $ to the ACC. It's all relative to what the SEC/B1G get. ACC will distribute record $ this year... but SEC increases even more. In relative terms, ACC is falling further behind even when it's earning more."
"Consider the "success initiative" $. If FSU or Clemson gets an extra $10M by making the CFP... but SEC gets four teams in the playoff and distributes $ evenly... there's still very little relative progress made by Clemson/FSU, etc. and that still ignores the perception gap."
(In response to this post by hokieball)
3y
"True for any other revenue initiative ACC could dream up, too. If it's successful... the SEC or B1G can just mimic it & we're right back to Square 1. I've talked to some ADs who think the easier playoff path in ACC has some value compared to SEC, but not $30M/year value."
"The college landscape has changed a TON in the past 3 years, so maybe that shift opens up new avenues (like forcing ND's hand?) so there's value in having *some* patience. Realignment, after all, hasn't been great for Neb, Colo, Mizz, UMd, etc. But the clock is ticking..."
"Best guess is we'll get to Option 5 & a court case eventually. Maybe in a couple years when the pinch of revenue gap is really felt. Maybe if courts rule players = employees. Maybe approaching NEXT round of TV in 2029/30. But as I said at the start: There is NO EASY ANSWER."
(In response to this post by hokieball)
3y
"One last thing I’ll add here for context: Coaches and ADs don’t make decisions on things like realignment. School presidents and chancellors do. And many of them are not a fraction as invested in athletics as fans on Twitter are."
(In response to this post by hokieball)