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CyberHokie CyberHokie OP
May 16, 2023 at 11:22 AM ET
Assuming (a big assumption at this point) the rumors are true
& the Magnificant 7 find a way out, what's next? There are rumors of a 60 team breakaway from the NCAA. Do the SEC & Big 10 take all 60 teams? Does the Big 12 absorb most of the leftover ACC & Pac 12 to get into the Super Conference discussion?

29 Replies

S
Stech
I think it’s 48 in the Power 2, Big 12 isn’t close money wise, neither is
is the ACC, and the PAC is going to either swallowed up, or be less than the Big 12. Which means they mainly get swallowed up by the B1G and B12.
M
MrFantastic!
Could you see the BIG going to 30? SEC staying at 16
S
Stech
Possible, but not probable, SEC wants to look like the King, and they get
there with more eyeballs watching their games. That’s where the money is, TV eyeballs.
M
MrFantastic!
agree but not sure BIG not more aggressive
Vienna_Hokie Vienna_Hokie
I think the BIG is going west, not South East
The economics of having the 2 LA schools out there alone just doesn't work. They are going to have to deal with that. So they are either going to 24 or more or there is no room at the BIG Inn for ACC teams. At that point, it is really 2 conferences under a single parent conference (media agreement) which seems like the best answer anyway.
hokieball hokieball
One edit -> Kansas State is still in the Big XII
I also wouldn't be surprised if all 7 of the breakaway ACC schools end up in the SEC. ESPN might want to keep all of those schools under its wing.
Atlee Hokie Atlee Hokie
So espn will pump enough new money into it's contracts with ...
$EC to keep the current members whole, $$$ wise?
Victor Tango Victor Tango
If there is no ACC to pay, they could save $ and pay 24 SEC schools
a little more than their current cut.
RoswellGAHokie RoswellGAHokie
That’s what I misunderstood. The ACC would get the media revenue of any
school that breaches the GOR.
hokieball hokieball
We've skipped ahead to the point where the ACC and its GOR have been...
dissolved for the sake of this "what if" scenario.
CrystalCoveHokie CrystalCoveHokie
You left out Kansas State……Also…..
Makes most sense for B1G to take Washington, Oregon, Stan and Cal. Makes most sense for SEC to take FSU, Miami, Clemson and UNC. That leaves 8 spots for Big12 to get to 20…….AZ, ASU, Utah, Colo, VT, UVA, NCS and Pitt. All others will have to find their way in the wilderness. SEC and B1G will be at the top money level. B12 will be a level below but enough money to keep things going.
CyberHokie CyberHokie OP
Yep I did. Ugh.
HokieAl HokieAl
No doubt in my mind that the B12 will happily choose the volume approach
They may not have the "brand names" that ESPN and CBS like to push, but with a large enough conference over a big enough geographical footprint, they can still do quite well. The B12 already has caught up to the ACC in terms of basketball (in recent years). Some people may look down on the B12, but they don't have to be the biggest names to be successful. The Dollar store companies are still very profitable even though Target and Walmart are out there. Same applies here if the B12 can pull off the growth model that they seem interested in.
V
VTCALS72
They can be the new "group of 5." but that is about it.
HokieAl HokieAl
that is not at all accurate
G5 have MUCH lower contracts and payouts per team. The B12 (and ACC) are as far ahead of the G5 as the P2 are ahead of the B12 and ACC. It's not even close to being like the G5. Plus the B12 has a dedicated path to the playoffs if their champ qualifies. And they get the bigger bowls and just better everything compared to the G5. It's a media myth to think of the B12 as subpar compared to the P2. The only thing the P2 is better at is money and football championships (80% of which are one school, Alabama). In contract, the ACC in football has been every bit as bad as the media likes to portray. At least the past decade has pretty much been Clemson and nobody else. ACC has a big performance problem (worse than the B12, but better than the PAC).
V
VTCALS72
If you think the payouts for ACC and B12 level teams will be about the same
after the completion of all this, then we just disagree. IMHO maybe the biggest driver of this whole thing is to get the majority of the current P5 teams hands out of the big money cookie jar so it can be redistributed to a chosen minority of current P5 teams ** Edited by VTCALS72 at 5/16/2023, 4:20:55 PM
B
Big12 guy
Expansion for the 12 - along with the P2, comes down to
what the networks are willing to pay. Don't forget that out here in Big12 country, Yormark has talked to Gonzaga, and is establishing a presence in Ney York, the later being interested in a coast to coast basketball bemouth. Today it's all about football, but the 12 is currently the only conference that has Fox and ESPN. Fox has the rights to the Big East, so it appears that some of the monies in the media deal was for basketball content, as well as football content. The Big12 wants content in all time zones, so the East Coast is on the radar, I assure you - but it may not be the ACC schools, as they will find a way to stay together, even in Clemson and FSU bolt.
2
2hhoop3
I will ask again......
tell us what you know that the Big 12 has with FOX and ESPN SPECIFICALLY.
B
Big12 guy
I can only tell you what I read, in that Fox was more interested
in the basketball content then ESPN was. They both get football content, but ESPN gets most of the first choices, and Fox gets a lot of the first choices for basketball.
2
2hhoop3
It will be.......
interesting to see if and when anybody from the Big 12 will be able to and willing to speak to actual specifics.
B
Big12 guy
Yormark has already been quoted
that he will attempt to separate football and basketball content in the next round of negotiations. If he can pull that off, we may have anther round of realignment when football settles down.
2
2hhoop3
Yormark's often.....
quoted on what he hopes to do or will attempt to do but, when it comes to the details and specifics on what he has done it is mostly crickets, at least as far as specifics.
B
Big12 guy
You're right, but looking at the speculation on this and other
boards - it is a direct quote. How that transpires is pure speculation.
2
2hhoop3
What I am saying is........
that Yormark/Bowlsby/Big 12, Phillips/Swofford/ACC and Kliavacoff/Scott/PAC 12 and their media partners behave decidedly different than Sankey/SEC or Warren/Big Ten. The reasons may not all be the same but, for the first three it is likely a combination of final amounts not being accurately estimable and/or the numbers not being really positive news from the conference side and their media partners following their wishes because it also gives the media an advantage in other ongoing negotiations. Meanwhile, the SEC, the Big 10 and their media partners scream the results before the ink is fully dry on the contracts. Larry Scott masterfully played PAC 12 administrators, possibly to the point of fraud. I do not think Yormark, Phillips or their predecessors are stooping to that level and it is more the desire to avoid the negative questioning of why it is not more and what are other possible plans to close the gap.
B
Big12 guy
I don't think the gap will be closed - it is what it is, but
keep in mind, K-State and Oklahoma State for example NEVER even came close to making the money that Texas and Oklahoma have over the decades. Not even close. Oregon never came close to being as rich as USC, and now they think they are going to be left behind because USC is making more money then them? This is way over blown. Ohio state and Texas have been the richest college football programs for a century. Exactly what has changed for the rest of the Big12? Absolutely nothing on the money side, but with those programs out of the way, the remaining teams in the Big12 have a legitimate chance of the playoffs, and with a little luck, are better positioned to win it all now then they were before. Almost all of the big brands and blue bloods are in two conferences. They will beat each other up, and will be sitting on the sidelines watching the Cincinnati's, USF's, K-States, and Baylor's play on the biggest stage in college footballs history.
2
2hhoop3
Your optimism......
is laudable, even if misplaced. Money does not buy brains, anybody can look at Texas and Texas A&M to see that, however, other things being equal or at least close, money is a significant differentiator. It buys facilities, coaches and staff, players and numerous other operating advantages. Making the playoffs is good publicity and a little more money but, that doesn't guarantee competitiveness and depending on performance can actually hurt rather than help relevance if a school becomes considered a perpetual doormat(see Michigan) rather than a legitimate threat to win it all and it takes more than catching lightning in a bottle once to alter that perception. The four schools you mention, along with the rest of the Big 12, the Big Ten(aside from Ohio State), the ACC(aside from possibly Clemson), and the bottom half of the SEC have all been little more than window dressing in recent times and that seems highly unlikely to change when the road goes from having to win 2 to 3,4 or more
R
RJHokie
Adding to this, if VT winds up in the “60”,
do you trust Whit to be able to guide VT through the process, upgrade fund raising/Hokie Club operations, football, etc?
Atlee Hokie Atlee Hokie
No!
S
saret
NO!