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Vienna_Hokie
Joined: 09/16/2002
Posts: 17,623
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If the goal is survival at any cost, then it should die

No, the ACC is not getting a BIG/SEC deal anytime soon. But, I don't believe the BIG is going to see those numbers either, they are projections from FOX and partners to drive the BIG to their deal. ESPN did the same with the ACC and the B12 will see the same. So, when it all shakes out in 5 years, if this mess holds together that long, the BIG and SEC will be likely aroundd $60mil, the ACC will be pushing $50mil and the B12 will be mid $40mil. The simple fact is, there is only so much money and the projections have the overall revenue doubling in like 6 years, that is just not going to happen. College football is at peak viewership, there aren't a bunch of people that are sitting around on saturdays to attract. It's all about carving up that pool, which will grow a bit because of some new matchups that this mess has created, but that is not going to be good for the B12 and will be not great for the ACC, but not as bad. Look at the TV ratings by week I posted above. All the teams that draw big, no matter who they are playing will be in the BIG SEC and a couple in the ACC, none are in the B12. There are 4 broadcast slots that matter now at noon, 5 at 3:30 and 4 in primetime. Starting this season, there will be an additional one in each of those time slots. So that's another game to divide the existing eyeballs. Since the 4th place finisher in those time slots is now drawing between 100k and 500k viewers, what happens when you add another game to compete? Most weeks, that 4th place in each time slot is going to be a B12 or ACC game. The difference is, once in a while Clem or FSU will be there to move the ACC up the ladder, but that is not likely for the B12, because you don't have any brands that create national interest. Also remember, the ACC has been as bad as it has ever been in both football and basketball for the last few years and has managed to put $40 mil in the pockets of each school, just reverting to the mean brings those numbers up. The B12 on the other hand has been where they have never been in basketball, when things revert to the mean, as they do (especially after Tex and OU leave, though AZ will help a bit) they'll be struggling for viewers when competing against more broadcast games. So, that said, your initial statement is true, there is no one out there that adds value. Once again, the ACC has a 13 year deal in place, you keep saying when the top teams leave, well it's gonna be 10 years at least before that happens without a huge financial windfall which changes the entire discussion. What's more likely to happen is the real payouts are going to come in, the gap between the ACC and the BIG/SEC will be there, but not the absurd projections that are out there now. The B12 will be behind that. The incentive for the top teams to leave will be marginalized and we will likely see the feds get involved which will do lord knows what. Your entire argument is based on the top teams leaving the ACC, which is not likely for a decade. During that decade, the reality of the revenue gap will become real. If the projections are real, then fine, they'll leave. But the entire landscape is going to change in that decade. Adding more welfare cases now just takes away options in the future. The B12 is going to have to deal with those WNBA level ratings for UCF, Cin and HOU every week and will soon be wishing they'd not knee jerked and had some flexibility to operate. Last thing the ACC needs is to replicate that. Being a solid 3rd through a period of structural change is not a bad place to be.
Posted: 08/22/2023 at 09:52 AM ET
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)

Thread Replies (51)

Full Thread →
B12 comes tomorrow and offers a spot. You’re the AD. Yes or No?**
JKHokie-RunFor32 08/21/23 12:21 PM ET
Seriously?
jesuisvtguy 08/21/23 05:11 PM ET
haha no**
VT Pez4Life 08/21/23 03:59 PM ET
No...the Big12 sucks (unless we have to join)**
Tuckahokie 08/21/23 03:30 PM ET
No. ACC payouts should pass Big 12 in a few years...
Old Line Hokie 08/21/23 03:29 PM ET
There is no point where ACC payouts will surpass the B12**
xx97 08/21/23 05:01 PM ET
2026
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 06:11 PM ET
Shows PAC12 passing Big 12 next year.
HokieDelNorte 08/21/23 06:42 PM ET
I said it was from before the PAC break up
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 06:49 PM ET
why??? I don't get this recent awe of the Big 12,
cvillehokie92 08/21/23 02:13 PM ET
Utah is a bottom feeder in all this as well, how you do on field
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 06:12 PM ET
Tomorrow~no. If ACC blows up and no invite from B10 or SEC, then yes
hokiesrule98 08/21/23 02:10 PM ET
The B12 would take VT in a heartbeat, and based on recent events, would
Big12 guy 08/22/23 06:53 AM ET
Definitely no!**
hokie77 08/21/23 01:53 PM ET
No**
HokieJamie 08/21/23 01:37 PM ET
More-- it historically going back to the SWC etc. has not been the most
Nelsonia Hokie 08/21/23 01:37 PM ET
Correct, B12 was the TX/OU/NEB/aTm and who they wanted to own after the SWC
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 06:33 PM ET
No., **
Nelsonia Hokie 08/21/23 01:30 PM ET
No......
2hhoop3 08/21/23 01:22 PM ET
if the top schools leave, the ACC leftovers can become a B12 clone
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 09:10 PM ET
No thanks, zero financial benefit right now.
wwhokie1 08/21/23 01:18 PM ET
What if you were Cuse or Pitt? Or even Duke? When the
Big12 guy 08/21/23 01:34 PM ET
If I were Pitt, Cuse, or Duke, I would be very concerned. GOR prevents
wwhokie1 08/21/23 06:23 PM ET
why? assuming (which I don't) FSU/Clem/Miami/UNC leave
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 07:14 PM ET
If the ACC loses its top 4 to 6 teams, I seriously doubt they will be able
wwhokie1 08/21/23 10:29 PM ET
Set aside your opinion of the B12 for a moment, and focus
Big12 guy 08/21/23 08:03 PM ET
If the GOR holds, and nothing says it won't, expansion is irrelevant
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 08:18 PM ET
The GOR is not forever, and the current situation is untenable.
Big12 guy 08/21/23 08:27 PM ET
They were absolutely no brainers to not add, they add nothing, they cost
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 08:34 PM ET
With each day and year.......
2hhoop3 08/21/23 08:53 PM ET
Yes, the current model is not sustainable for anyone except the SEC
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 09:08 PM ET
Ill be the first to admit that I don't know the answer for the ACC, but
Big12 guy 08/22/23 08:37 AM ET
If the goal is survival at any cost, then it should die
Vienna_Hokie 08/22/23 09:52 AM ET
yes for 70 mil per yr**
Windows NT 08/21/23 01:12 PM ET
Nope! Not interested in B12! **
hoodat 08/21/23 12:51 PM ET
Neither was the PAC4. **
Big12 guy 08/21/23 12:57 PM ET
They also didn't have 12+ years remaining on a GOR that pays very well**
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 02:45 PM ET
Fair, but the fact is, they never made the call. Remember, before the PAC
Big12 guy 08/21/23 03:50 PM ET
Once again, there is nothing out there that makes the ACC better
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 05:52 PM ET
Now, or when the top ACC teams leave? **
Big12 guy 08/21/23 08:06 PM ET
both, if top teams leave, you see what that means and decide how to move
Vienna_Hokie 08/21/23 08:21 PM ET
I think WV and UCF are content. They should be in the ACC, but there
Big12 guy 08/21/23 08:36 PM ET
No Thanks
Millpoint 08/21/23 12:48 PM ET
You control nothing yet. Bunch of scrambled eggs needing bacon.**
MrFantastic! 08/21/23 12:56 PM ET
Big 12 doesn't want or need ND**
Millpoint 08/21/23 02:22 PM ET
All would take ND. BIG 12 took WVU. They take about anyone!**
MrFantastic! 08/21/23 02:25 PM ET
Says the league that gobbled up Louisville, BC, Syracuse, etc?**
xx97 08/21/23 05:03 PM ET
That's ok
Millpoint 08/21/23 02:30 PM ET
LOL.. why so huffy? Ames rivalry game got you nervous?**
MrFantastic! 08/21/23 02:33 PM ET
Better to have a real rival in Ames
Millpoint 08/21/23 04:09 PM ET
No thank you.**
EDGEMAN 08/21/23 12:45 PM ET
No thank you period**
Mercury 08/21/23 12:28 PM ET