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If the goal is survival at any cost, then it should die
No, the ACC is not getting a BIG/SEC deal anytime soon. But, I don't believe the BIG is going to see those numbers either, they are projections from FOX and partners to drive the BIG to their deal. ESPN did the same with the ACC and the B12 will see the same. So, when it all shakes out in 5 years, if this mess holds together that long, the BIG and SEC will be likely aroundd $60mil, the ACC will be pushing $50mil and the B12 will be mid $40mil.
The simple fact is, there is only so much money and the projections have the overall revenue doubling in like 6 years, that is just not going to happen. College football is at peak viewership, there aren't a bunch of people that are sitting around on saturdays to attract. It's all about carving up that pool, which will grow a bit because of some new matchups that this mess has created, but that is not going to be good for the B12 and will be not great for the ACC, but not as bad.
Look at the TV ratings by week I posted above. All the teams that draw big, no matter who they are playing will be in the BIG SEC and a couple in the ACC, none are in the B12. There are 4 broadcast slots that matter now at noon, 5 at 3:30 and 4 in primetime. Starting this season, there will be an additional one in each of those time slots. So that's another game to divide the existing eyeballs. Since the 4th place finisher in those time slots is now drawing between 100k and 500k viewers, what happens when you add another game to compete? Most weeks, that 4th place in each time slot is going to be a B12 or ACC game. The difference is, once in a while Clem or FSU will be there to move the ACC up the ladder, but that is not likely for the B12, because you don't have any brands that create national interest. Also remember, the ACC has been as bad as it has ever been in both football and basketball for the last few years and has managed to put $40 mil in the pockets of each school, just reverting to the mean brings those numbers up. The B12 on the other hand has been where they have never been in basketball, when things revert to the mean, as they do (especially after Tex and OU leave, though AZ will help a bit) they'll be struggling for viewers when competing against more broadcast games.
So, that said, your initial statement is true, there is no one out there that adds value. Once again, the ACC has a 13 year deal in place, you keep saying when the top teams leave, well it's gonna be 10 years at least before that happens without a huge financial windfall which changes the entire discussion. What's more likely to happen is the real payouts are going to come in, the gap between the ACC and the BIG/SEC will be there, but not the absurd projections that are out there now. The B12 will be behind that. The incentive for the top teams to leave will be marginalized and we will likely see the feds get involved which will do lord knows what.
Your entire argument is based on the top teams leaving the ACC, which is not likely for a decade. During that decade, the reality of the revenue gap will become real. If the projections are real, then fine, they'll leave. But the entire landscape is going to change in that decade. Adding more welfare cases now just takes away options in the future. The B12 is going to have to deal with those WNBA level ratings for UCF, Cin and HOU every week and will soon be wishing they'd not knee jerked and had some flexibility to operate. Last thing the ACC needs is to replicate that. Being a solid 3rd through a period of structural change is not a bad place to be.
Thread Replies (51)
B12 comes tomorrow and offers a spot. You’re the AD. Yes or No?**
-- JKHokie-RunFor32
Aug 21, 2023 at 12:21 PM ET
JKHokie-RunFor32
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08/21/23 12:21 PM ET
No...the Big12 sucks (unless we have to join)**
-- Tuckahokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 03:30 PM ET
Tuckahokie
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08/21/23 03:30 PM ET
No. ACC payouts should pass Big 12 in a few years...
-- Old Line Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 03:29 PM ET
Old Line Hokie
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08/21/23 03:29 PM ET
There is no point where ACC payouts will surpass the B12**
-- xx97
Aug 21, 2023 at 05:01 PM ET
xx97
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08/21/23 05:01 PM ET
Shows PAC12 passing Big 12 next year.
-- HokieDelNorte
Aug 21, 2023 at 06:42 PM ET
HokieDelNorte
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08/21/23 06:42 PM ET
I said it was from before the PAC break up
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 06:49 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 06:49 PM ET
why??? I don't get this recent awe of the Big 12,
-- cvillehokie92
Aug 21, 2023 at 02:13 PM ET
cvillehokie92
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08/21/23 02:13 PM ET
Utah is a bottom feeder in all this as well, how you do on field
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 06:12 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 06:12 PM ET
Tomorrow~no. If ACC blows up and no invite from B10 or SEC, then yes
-- hokiesrule98
Aug 21, 2023 at 02:10 PM ET
hokiesrule98
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08/21/23 02:10 PM ET
The B12 would take VT in a heartbeat, and based on recent events, would
-- Big12 guy
Aug 22, 2023 at 06:53 AM ET
Big12 guy
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08/22/23 06:53 AM ET
More-- it historically going back to the SWC etc. has not been the most
-- Nelsonia Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 01:37 PM ET
Nelsonia Hokie
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08/21/23 01:37 PM ET
Correct, B12 was the TX/OU/NEB/aTm and who they wanted to own after the SWC
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 06:33 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 06:33 PM ET
if the top schools leave, the ACC leftovers can become a B12 clone
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 09:10 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 09:10 PM ET
No thanks, zero financial benefit right now.
-- wwhokie1
Aug 21, 2023 at 01:18 PM ET
wwhokie1
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08/21/23 01:18 PM ET
What if you were Cuse or Pitt? Or even Duke? When the
-- Big12 guy
Aug 21, 2023 at 01:34 PM ET
Big12 guy
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08/21/23 01:34 PM ET
If I were Pitt, Cuse, or Duke, I would be very concerned. GOR prevents
-- wwhokie1
Aug 21, 2023 at 06:23 PM ET
wwhokie1
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08/21/23 06:23 PM ET
why? assuming (which I don't) FSU/Clem/Miami/UNC leave
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 07:14 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 07:14 PM ET
If the ACC loses its top 4 to 6 teams, I seriously doubt they will be able
-- wwhokie1
Aug 21, 2023 at 10:29 PM ET
wwhokie1
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08/21/23 10:29 PM ET
Set aside your opinion of the B12 for a moment, and focus
-- Big12 guy
Aug 21, 2023 at 08:03 PM ET
Big12 guy
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08/21/23 08:03 PM ET
If the GOR holds, and nothing says it won't, expansion is irrelevant
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 08:18 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 08:18 PM ET
The GOR is not forever, and the current situation is untenable.
-- Big12 guy
Aug 21, 2023 at 08:27 PM ET
Big12 guy
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08/21/23 08:27 PM ET
They were absolutely no brainers to not add, they add nothing, they cost
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 08:34 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 08:34 PM ET
Yes, the current model is not sustainable for anyone except the SEC
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 09:08 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 09:08 PM ET
Ill be the first to admit that I don't know the answer for the ACC, but
-- Big12 guy
Aug 22, 2023 at 08:37 AM ET
Big12 guy
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08/22/23 08:37 AM ET
If the goal is survival at any cost, then it should die
◄
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 22, 2023 at 09:52 AM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/22/23 09:52 AM ET
They also didn't have 12+ years remaining on a GOR that pays very well**
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 02:45 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 02:45 PM ET
Fair, but the fact is, they never made the call. Remember, before the PAC
-- Big12 guy
Aug 21, 2023 at 03:50 PM ET
Big12 guy
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08/21/23 03:50 PM ET
Once again, there is nothing out there that makes the ACC better
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 05:52 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 05:52 PM ET
Now, or when the top ACC teams leave? **
-- Big12 guy
Aug 21, 2023 at 08:06 PM ET
Big12 guy
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08/21/23 08:06 PM ET
both, if top teams leave, you see what that means and decide how to move
-- Vienna_Hokie
Aug 21, 2023 at 08:21 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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08/21/23 08:21 PM ET
I think WV and UCF are content. They should be in the ACC, but there
-- Big12 guy
Aug 21, 2023 at 08:36 PM ET
Big12 guy
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08/21/23 08:36 PM ET
You control nothing yet. Bunch of scrambled eggs needing bacon.**
-- MrFantastic!
Aug 21, 2023 at 12:56 PM ET
MrFantastic!
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08/21/23 12:56 PM ET
Big 12 doesn't want or need ND**
-- Millpoint
Aug 21, 2023 at 02:22 PM ET
Millpoint
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08/21/23 02:22 PM ET
All would take ND. BIG 12 took WVU. They take about anyone!**
-- MrFantastic!
Aug 21, 2023 at 02:25 PM ET
MrFantastic!
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08/21/23 02:25 PM ET
Says the league that gobbled up Louisville, BC, Syracuse, etc?**
-- xx97
Aug 21, 2023 at 05:03 PM ET
xx97
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08/21/23 05:03 PM ET
LOL.. why so huffy? Ames rivalry game got you nervous?**
-- MrFantastic!
Aug 21, 2023 at 02:33 PM ET
MrFantastic!
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08/21/23 02:33 PM ET
Better to have a real rival in Ames
-- Millpoint
Aug 21, 2023 at 04:09 PM ET
Millpoint
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08/21/23 04:09 PM ET