There are 20 rounds in the draft.
At what point in the draft (usually) do most players opt to stay in college?
14 Replies
Q
QCP
1y
Looking across the last four post-Covid drafts in aggregate, here are some stats:
• OVERALL: Across all drafted players across all rounds, 92% end up signing with all rounds from 1 through 15 having a 92% or greater signing rate. Things start to taper off slightly in rounds 16 through 18 as they range between 83% to 87% signing rate and then things drop considerably in rounds 19 and 20 with 66% signing in round 19 and 58% signing in round 20.
• 4YR: Across all rounds, 97% of 4YR college players end up signing. All rounds 1 through 18 are in the 91%+ range and things don’t really change until rounds 19 and 20 where the rates drop to 84% and 82% respectively.
• HS: Rounds 1 through 10 have more or less a 100% signing rate and then things dip to the 80% range generally in rounds 11 through 14 and then rounds 15 through 18 are roughly a 50%-60% signing rate and then rounds 19 and 20 have a large drop-off with just a 26% and 15% signing rate respectively.
• JUCO: JUCO follows a relatively similar pattern to 4YR College players with the exception of the last 4 rounds as JUCO drops below 88% signing in round 17 and the last 4 rounds having roughly a 70%-75% signing rate.
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
1y
I wouldn’t have thought the percentages would be that high.
Perhaps additional bits of info would be what percentage of the draftees by round actually made the majors (on a permanent basis) and how long it took them to get to the majors. I suppose you would have to use more than four years to have appropriate data and trends.
A friend of mine who pitched for VT in the late 60’s spent nine years in the minors before hanging up baseball and getting a “regular” job……..
** Edited by RJHokie at 7/14/2025, 8:36:57 PM
(In response to this post by QCP)
V
vtfin91
1y
which is a different process. Amazing how difficult projecting amateur baseball players to mlb is. So many guys kill it in the low minors and hit a massive wall in AA. Tough to get over that hump. Look at recent high vt picks Gavin Cross and Drue Hackenburg. Both have been really bad this season, and at this point it would take a major change to make it, even as 1st and 2nd rounders - both must, and could still, make major adjustments.
** Edited by vtfin91 at 7/14/2025, 11:13:01 PM
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
1y
If you don’t follow baseball that closely, which I don’t, I’m not sure you would consciously be aware of such data/statistics.
(In response to this post by vtfin91)
1y
I read John Feinstein's "Where Nobody Knows Your Name" and it really paints a picture of how tough it is.
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
C
chagerma
1y
(In response to this post by Hokie Bird)
1y
(In response to this post by chagerma)
1y
These guys have talked with teams and they have an idea already of whether they'll sign and for how much before drafting them. If a guy gets drafted, it's most likely they're signing with that team.
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
C
chagerma
1y
Seems like $200k isn't going very far to slum it for 4 yrs.
(In response to this post by Vawter Tech)
1y
And luckily it got a little better with a wage increase and teams now covering housing costs. But they still don't get paid much and will have to work a job in the off season while still committing to high level training to improve and stay in shape, which costs a lot of money and is NOT covered by the teams.
I used to work as a mascot for the Salem Red Sox. I also spend a lot of time at minor league games and have talked with players and workers at the stadiums. It's not a fancy way to earn a living. They've since moved teams around and reshaped the minors so they're closer together, but they used to have very long bus rides between stadiums.
College ball in the SEC and ACC have better facilities, uniforms, and camaraderie than what you'll find in the minors. So for high schoolers passing on college, you better be getting a fat check. Because it's a job. They expect you to work. It's not like college where you hang out and enjoy spending time with your buddies on the team at college parties and football games. You might have a couple friends on the team, but there's a lot of turnover with promotions and trades so you don't often get to see the same people all the time. The facilities can often be rundown. The food you get before games is provided by a clubbie, for both the home and away teams. The clubbie is expected to go to Costco on his own dime and buy all the food for each locker room. He then hopes to break even on money from the players that they leave for him.
Housing used to be more difficult when players had to figure it out on their own. This meant 5 players to a room sometimes, because they didnt' have much money, and if you got promoted or traded you were still expected to cover your portion of the lease unless another player came and filled your spot. Now teams cover housing so this is no longer as much of an issue.
Minor league baseball is a beautiful thing, but most players will watch their dreams die before even reaching AAA. Of players from the 2022 team that were drafted or signed, it's looking like only Tanner Schobel, Drue Hackenberg, and Carson DeMartini have a shot of making it to the pros.
(In response to this post by chagerma)
1y
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Rookie Level: $19,800 per year.
Low-A: $26,200 per year.
High-A: $27,300 per year.
Double-A: $30,250 per year.
Triple-A: $35,800 per year.
** Edited by U2Hokie at 7/15/2025, 9:03:40 PM
(In response to this post by chagerma)
C
chagerma
1y
And signing bonuses drop to $0 in the 11th round don't they? In other words, mom and dad are still footing the bill for you to live. But then again, I heard the two starters in last nights game had 3 total offers between them out of HS. I was shocked to hear that.
(In response to this post by U2Hokie)
1y
got 750/month in A ball yr 1, then 900 yr 2 high A, then 1050 yr 3 AA - High A, then 1250 yr 4 High A....only for the time the season was in play (March to Sept) - then it was odd jobs like Electrician apprentice and Manpower jobs. This was after a 4 yr degree and turning the draft down 2x's to play at VT.
Shoulder probs sent me to grad school - worked during school to pay for it - got a stipend the 2nd yr.
Met my future wife and started real work in 1990 - life got great with ups n downs - found Jesus - now just retired.
Still love ball and glad to have chased a dream - Nolan R and Joe Rudi were my favs! The Swinging A's were my team!
(In response to this post by chagerma)
1y
of up to $150K. Which is usually what is given. I think.
(In response to this post by chagerma)