s11rww

And this guy is going to cherry pick his bball coach. Guaranteed. Not much thought to put into it. Probably part of the allure of the job for him. Sets up perfect if young can retain the core with the new 5th year rule and then step aside after 27-28 season … why would anybody want anything different? Only exception is if we have a bad year this year and there’s a good hire available then this season will be his last. Pretty simple. New ADs always pick their own coaches when they get the chance. It’s not like he doesn’t think young is good enough or something or any slight against him.

Durham, and basically the same amount as in the entire RTP area … Sure it’s not the Cameron indoor student section but as someone who attended those games before, it’s as much of a one sided crowd as you’ll see anywhere

Jones / Sagnia / Heide are all basically throwing mid at the wall and see if Sagnia or jones develops, heide is a solid known quantity, Sagnia gives a different look with the 3ball … depth … Hammond / Elohim / curry can all three play together if needed, I think curry will like you said spell Hammond but they will also play together Another wing to add depth but that’s basically our 8-9 man rotation, with room for 1-3 injuries, it’s pretty solid The whole “starters” vs “bench” thing doesn’t really matter as a guy like curry might not start but could still play more than half the game So what I see is a lot of room for matchup-based changes in the front court and backcourt, ability to go big or go small … should be interesting .. better shooting team than last year for sure ..

I’m 38 years old been going to games for 35 years, start to remember the NIT champs and early stokes years. I’m being legit is he the worst full-time starter we’ve ever had in a VT uniform? Jennis Grindstaff? I mean. If we trade Avdalas for Chris Tucker do we win more games this year? GC Hokie and his “gravity” will laugh but. Hands down better defender. Hands down better shooter. Hands down better rebounder. Hands down better hustle. Hands down better decision maker. What am I missing?

It’s called sarcasm, is what he was using, trying to imply that the people criticizing young are wrong. Pretty simple. What the f$&ck are you actually talking about?

The criticisms of Young are not strictly results oriented. They are process oriented. If anything, the “good” performances (such as winning against mediocre teams at home, if you count this) show exactly what the commentators have said - This team has all the potential in the world (top 25 / sweet sixteen) and that potential has not been harvested by the coaching staff. The best argument for Young consistently is that he’s the best we can do. Avdalas obviously finally stepped into a shot with confidence today for the first time in .. months? Does young get credit for that? Does he get any blame for it taking so long to resolve?

Who knows what we spent on Neo but it was obviously a lot, and literally nobody could have seen this coming. He’s handled what has ended up being both x/o’s-wise and I’m sure behind-the-scenes-wise a really awful situation with a lot of grace and about as well as anyone could. Can’t fault to eval there because he’s arguably the highest eval player to ever put on a jersey for VT. And is he THAT bad? No. But it’s pretty bad. We sold out on building around a guy who is a 6-7th man quality player on a midpack ACC team and that’s what we are getting but he is pressed into a “feature” role or huge hole due to circumstances, first with promises and now with injuries. The main advantage of having TJ back is we could bench Neo and cut into his minutes significantly. Unfortunately the actual two 7th men on our team were complete whiffs (Dorn and Pascha) which DOES again fall in CMY lap. As bad as he is, he’s still way way better than them. So, checkmate for us. My contention would be we don’t need “clutch gene” we just need guys to stop completely blowing it. Like just NEUTRAL play, effort, and decision making … we don’t need a Kobe in order to have won enough to be deep within the dance right now, we just need a bare minimum baseline of effort and decision making on both ends to have been instilled months into the season … Again that falls on the coaches. Like I said I’d like to see some IMPROVEMENT … for example Tobi is still a huge liability in meaningful situations on both ends … things like that … unless the players are just uncoachable? Which, he picked these guys. So again, I sound like a broken record … Yeah TJ changes everything. How come the coaches have added zero value to the rest of the core guys throughout the year? Good teams often play better and peak thru Feb and March, our results are just randomly praying for a hot shooting night by us or a cold one from the opponent, 20+ games into the season … I’m definitely asking for more from CMY and staff.

Except for maybe Hammond, who was “benched” to start the season due to botching the Neo situation. Granted hindsight 20/20 there nobody could argue with that and changes were made but not exactly giving CMY and staff credit for Hammond’s stepping into a being a force. Forget the injuries yes of course if we have a completely non-injured roster we win more and make the tournament. Doesn’t mean they still wouldn’t have underperformed. The problem is the effort level of the players, the discipline of the players, and whether or not any constructive changes happen in game or between games. Yes it matters HOW we lost the Stanford and SMU games. Can say “lucky shot” but it completely overlooks the fact that we were in those situations in the first place. Yes a one-point loss on the road in the acc who cares, I get it, but the way the team has consistently gone through complete dry spells, gotten routed in 2h’s and last 5 mins, and poor execution in final two minutes … not once, but repeatedly, consistently … That’s what we are talking about. The game isn’t played on paper. Fans want to see the players working harder. What is the culture of this team? It’s a bunch of talented individuals that haven’t learned to play together by February. CMY doesn’t have answers. It is what it is. Maybe he’s still the best we can do.

It’s on CMY. Has the team improved at all throughout the course of the season? Everything that is lacking is the stuff that CMY is hired to do. Build a roster (we got so many guys who we can’t even count on to contribute, including Avdalas … which unfortunately the other players are worse) Effort? Decision making? (Turnovers / shot selection) Clock management (shot clock awareness and end game management) What am I missing? Mike Young and staff have gotten extremely little out of what they have. Sure we don’t have duke’s roster but that’s how you measure a coach. Work with what you’ve got. Make improvements. Get the guys to play hard. Get the guys to play smart. It’s an extremely poor performance for CMY. Does he deserve to lose his job over it? In a sane world maybe not. In current cbb structure it’d be crazy to keep him, especially for a lame duck year when he’s not getting an extension and so many other acc teams have had success just building portal teams with new coaches in no time.

It’s freaking hard work to only get 2 pts in 30 mins.

Was hilarious to watch … not touching the inbounds til mid court

It’s complete brainwashing at this point to try to spin it any other way. I mean he’s an asset as a 6th-7th man as a freshman on a mid-pack ACC team

Buzz and Greenberg seemed to have cemented a baseline culture of the program from day one that nobody gets a schollie, nobody gets a jersey, and nobody gets PT unless they are at a bare minimum committed to 100% effort at all times on the defensive end. Is that not possible in today’s ncaab culture? Sure was something that was easy to get behind as a fan. Regardless of the myriad other things that could go wrong during a game or a season (injuries, shooting, turnovers, missed FTs) … there was a baseline identity and culture there. This team is absolutely severely lacking in that regard and that’s a coaching problem - whether it’s recruitment, culture, etc or simply whiffing on so much eval that we literally don’t have the leverage to have guys nipping at anyone’s heels or pull them out of the game even if they are completely out to lunch on defense …

To bring Stuart Smalley out of retirement?

From The Waterboy

If you don’t get the photo reference then you have no idea what is about to be unleashed on the world

Basically one games worth of minutes out of the season for that lineup … trying to think but probably a lot of it was down stretch against uva off the top of my head, good chunk of it anyway, and Hammond was going OFFFFFF … I don’t think there’s much criticism to be had for the rotations from CMY in acc play … Avdalas just needs to play better

I get it the tourney committee looks like a black box, and that’s where you’re coming from. But also to be in the tourney you have to beat a few good teams. Tech has those teams beaten. If they don’t get in, there’s nothing to blame but execution. That’s what I’m saying. If they don’t get in, they had their chance, and those two moments were where they blew it. Currently they’re not in. So I’m saying right now undeserving, and can’t complain. Many previous years we had legitimate complaints being bubbled-out. As it stands, they need to do something to get in - to make up for those two games basically. They absolutely can. But it’s on them to make a move because those games were poorly executed down the stretch.

Like I get it put it in a black box, it’s okay to lose that game. But the WAY we lost it, which “doesn’t matter” really when evaluating by the selection committee- absolutely matters when you think … can this team really complain if they don’t get in? That’s more what I meant. They blew that one. Unlike other tech bubble teams of yore if these guys don’t get in can’t really point fingers at anything but execution id say. Because of those two collapses.

Team doesn’t really deserve the tourney, because of those two.

What I’m hearing does kinda revolve around intensity and rebounding … I trust that the threes will fall enough … there will always be variance in that part of the game … I’d love to see lawal in more situations where he’s catching the ball cutting to the basket with instructions to not think about anything other than embarrassing the opposition. Don’t care if you miss don’t care if you get a charge once in awhile don’t look for anybody or at anything but the rim and go attack HARD with authority .. again just an overall lack of killer instinct is the vibe from several key pieces … sounds wishy washy but lawal should know that nobody can hang with him in the air and make it a focal point

Aside from getting rid of the fans, the students, whatever might completely bring etiquette compliance from 99% to 100% … (Side note I think it’s at least noteworthy that said fans showed up and booed him in public rather than just calling people names on the internet … there’s at least slightly more accountability and skin in the game there) … I’d love it if you showed up next game to the corner of the student section to admonish these fans in person and hold them accountable pre-game and teach them a lesson. I’m 100% serious lolol. But what I’m really curious about is the roots here not the symptoms. Now as anyone who understands bball, probabilities, and variance … ultimately we had the ball in our best shooters hands a few times to make this a one-possession game, that it kinda looked like we never had any business being in. Our mythical “3 point defense” showed up in the 2h which seems to keep us in a lot of games (yes that’s a jab when teams often miss a lot of open looks against us) So play that out different say it’s a one possession game or we somehow force overtime and/or win. The conversation is still “holy crap this team is REALLY good, imagine how dominant they could be if Avdalas was on all cylinders” So in that vein … I’d like to run this by you as an insider/expert. I feel like I might just be getting old and turning into my old coaches, honestly, but I find myself constantly yelling internally “hustle! Rebound! Play defense! Get back in position! Put a hand up!!! BOX OUT!!!!” Hahahaa when I watch this team play. To be more concrete the defense flat out sucks from a few guys. Neo very politely is a liability on defense. That’s fine. Honestly. But it would go a long way if he were more of a stopper with his frame. I went grew up in teens and 20s thru the Collins/gordon/dowdell era thru the vassallo/dwash era basically Greenberg and buzz years. Not that I don’t remember the Tucker twins or Dixon/Matthew’s big east era but … Greenberg and Buzz teams always had a basically baseline culture it seemed that you weren’t going to be on the floor unless you gave max effort at all times and that basically manifested in defense and rebounding. I know times have changed and it seems like the players more have the coaches by the balls nowadays and the dynamic makes it harder to push them, withhold pt etc (not that we have that option with current roster - rosters are also less deep in NIL era) But do you see that as missing and is there anything that can be done to change it down the stretch? I’m old and can’t remember **** but I honestly have maybe one image all year of a player diving on the floor for a ball. The real rub is that the team - while many technical mistakes were made against uva … they definitely fought their ASS off for that game. And Hammond was the star of it. And even yesterday the announcers (who granted are also idiots but even a broken clock is right twice a day) kept saying how vt was creating any havoc on defense. Now I get it slippery slope - discipline is important especially to CMY … But you COULD see Hammond doing these things. Disrupting, creating pressure, scrapping … When’s the last time I saw a vt player RIP a 50/50 ball away from somebody in the air? There was just an entirely different feel And intensity to the heart of the team. And Greenberg would rightly point at guys like jamon really bringing that energy. Now obviously he’s a generational talent in that area not every team is going to have a jamon gordon but I can’t help but feel even if we had 10-25% more of “that” that this team could beat anybody. Why doesn’t lawal aggressively go to the rim more like dwash? Why doesn’t neo wake up in the morning salivating at the opportunity to catch and shoot like a vassallo? Obvi his numbers are bad but we KNOW neo is a threat from a college 3. It seems like he’s the only one who doesn’t. Slapping the floor pumping up the crowd getting cocky where is all that? Is there any chance of that down the stretch? Harrassment, intensity, fire, hustle, fight … it was the easiest thing in the world to root for those teams even when nothing went right … Or am I just getting old?

But weren’t most of the people booing, by all accounts, also “teenagers” (students)? So don’t they get the same pass on their lack of performing up to standards? Just seems overblown. I’m just making the case for a silver lining, which is the only choice as far as I can see. Like I pointed out below ultimately all the coaches and the players and the whole sport as we know it only exist because solely of the fans - on tv and in the arena. They are there ultimately to be entertained, and the guys on the floor are there solely to entertain them. I find the whole situation more entertaining than the alternative, and can’t wait for nc state even more. Avdalas heel turn wasn’t in my 2026 forecast, but I’m here for it! Popcorn popped!!

For the record I mumbled to myself “it’s time for Schutt” and left it at that, from the comfort of my iPhone screen in the middle of the desert. apparently Mike Young had the same conclusion. I thought the fan reaction, which I didn’t hear on tv or wasn’t paying attention to the noise, was pretty entertaining. I’d counter to say the bare minimum is they could not show up at all. At the end of the day I’m not saying buying a ticket gives anyone any RIGHT to do x y z by any means but it does seem lost sometimes that literally the ONLY reason why ANY of this exists is PURELY to entertain the fans. Coaches players media etc tend to get lost in that bubble too often. Literally that’s it. Doesn’t give the right to be abusive but also can’t be that dismissive and demeaning of their existence or presence or opinions in the whole thing. At the end of the day the coaches and players are just a dog and pony show to entertain the nut low peasantry, they’re not much different from clowns or gladiators, there’s not much more to it than that everything else is layers of window dressing. Cue Clerks “this job would be GREAT if it wasn’t for the damn CUSTOMERS!!” Lololol

For the award you’ll surely receive for that prestigious accomplishment Meanwhile the rest of us are going to take the even higher road of being unbothered so we can make use of the situation rather than sit on a high horse and point fingers down our nose at things that are completely airmailing the point - like a Avdalas skip pass into traffic after getting trapped because he’s afraid of missing another shot :)

Ad hominem fueled by onomatopoeia in the age of autocorrect is a bold stance to take

Are we focused on criticizing the fans - who as it has been established are and always will be out of control, as per the point of the sports psychologist from UM. They also cannot control the effort level and grit and motivations of the players on the court, but ultimately the noise they make is the only recourse they have. So much posting about the fans and asking them to be better. And the fans are asking the team to be better. Who is the owness on? The lowest common denominator to raise their standard, or the professionals (coaches and players, young and old) to properly filter and harness the energy of the moment?

Don’t kick a man when he’s down Higher intelligence asks tough questions of people Look it’s obviously an emotional issue for people. “How could you!?!?” It’s mean it’s cruel it’s unthinkable it crosses the lines of decency etc I get it. So “higher intelligence” whatever there’s too much semantics and emotional loading there to really unravel it. The bottom line is the fans are ready for desperate measures because they are CORRECTLY more or less assessing the situation at this point as running out of time for a correction. And they are not seeing that kind of fight from the team. Everything revolves around Neo - literally and figuratively. Hammond “took that personally” MJ-style and has shown he’s the best player on the team when it matters. So the “higher intelligence” potentially is: If doing it for his draft stock doesn’t move the needle, if doing it for a team championship doesn’t move the needle, if doing it to “earn his salary” doesn’t move the needle, if doing it to make his teammates and coaches and parents proud doesn’t move the needle (not saying ANY of this is valid or even true just outlining examples of reasons why people play in the first place - which is always an interesting question) … if none of those move the needle maybe bruising his pride and playing for his own personal “F YOU” moment to the peanut gallery will do the trick. I mean given how everything has unfolded that’s basically the best play he has. It’s fuel or not. He needs a spark. I thought he hit rock bottom before this game and thought Duke at home was the perfect opportunity to really showcase FIRE from Neo. That’s what’s missing. Hammond has it. Lawal doesn’t Neo doesn’t … So as is often the case rock bottom is really a few tiers lower than you usually think at first. It basically has to be this way in order to grow and change. Embrace it. I expect Neo to come out with something to prove after this. There’s no “debate” to “win” it’s just a matter of: focusing on what can be gained from this instead of hanging head and pity party. I wouldn’t have booed if I were there but I’m also not worried about the people who did I think it’s pretty fascinating if not entertaining and sets an awesome stage as a fan to see what happens next.

There’s probably a reason why the people bothered by it are weeded out of the game at the highest levels. It’s a blessing. Use it to your advantage. The best use everything to their advantage and don’t complain or cry or play victim.

Take off the cult worship snowflake glasses. You act like you’re better than everybody else. It’s actually funny to me. There’s a point that needs to get across to the kid. Booing wasn’t the first step, nor the third. It’s classless sure. But a truly classy person doesn’t take it personally and understands that there is SOMETHING to be gleaned from the raw unfiltered emotion of the mob rather than getting butt hurt or defensive or turning it into a pissing contest. And that something is that they want to see some fire from the kid. It’s time. Why is it funny? Max Kellerman’s little brother had a great quote years ago that sums it up. Paraphrasing: sports is man’s joke on god. We are born in a world where we fight and scrap and struggle every day and in the end, it doesn’t matter because we die anyway. So our only response to that scenario is to create our own sub-world, called sports, which ABSOLUTELY doesn’t matter at all, and treat it as if it were life and death. That’s our joke on god. Let them be fanatics. It’s part of the scene. As pointed out above they’re booing not because the ball doesn’t go in the basket but because they are frustrated that he doesn’t believe in himself as much as everyone around him believes in him. It’s super common in high level sports - I work 1on1 with pga and lpga golfers who come from a variety of privileged and prodigy-like backgrounds, and their tour coaches and sports psychologists and parents and agents etc etc every day and deal all the time with exactly what neo is going through. I had a 20 year old Asian girl give herself a piece of self-talk in the middle of a tournament last year that would be good for this situation: “Time to grow a pair and hit a good shot.” Blaming the fans for somehow holding him back or interfering or making things worse or for not being patrons saints of basketball wisdom or all that is sacred in the world of psychological therapy is literally just an excuse. Blaming, finger-pointing, throwing around accusations instead of looking in the mirror is also low-brow stuff. There’s absolutely something to be gained from the fans albeit brutal response to the situation. Whether he wants to gain it or not is up to him. Therein lies the potential of listening to the subtlety of the sound and where it is coming from and harnessing the raw energy of it versus being tormented by it and deflecting. I’m really curious if neo’s as bothered by it as you are. Obviously there’s a history there with you and fans being dumb that probably will never be let go of. Ultimately Neo has started playing very defensively mentally, as if trying to protect his stock like a football team trying to protect their lead and immediately giving it away instead of attacking. Feels like he wants the season to be over, especially since his injury scare. None of this matters to him, IT SEEMS. And as per kellerman he’s right. But as of right now he’s not at all cut out mentally to be a competitive athlete professionally. He’s also probably never had the chance to hone those skills, I’m guessing. The jeering gives him a chance. There’s a beauty to it. Embrace it. It’s tactless but they’re not wrong in wanting to see more effort more hustle more moxy more fight more killer-or-be-killed from him and really the whole team. So it’s a tactless way to communicate it but are the tactful ways that he’s probably surrounded by with everyone kissing his feet working at all? Shock therapy is a last resort, but as far as the fans are concerned that’s where we’re at with just a handful of games left and not much of a pulse from Neo.

See my reply to GC below (easy to find, long text body)

Or at least put it squarely in the category of you not needing to constantly melt over it. There’s been a lot of patience, acknowledge that. Staff and teammates are either unwilling to put any heat on him or not wired that way. Is there enough heat on him? Yes. Is that part of the problem? Yes. But there’s some higher intelligence in booing him. There’s a massive ego there with neo. And that’s also the source of the humiliation for him. I’m glad to see somebody not treat him like a baby and hold him accountable. Granted you will probably rant about some YOU THINK YOU KNOW WHAT CMY DOES BEHIND CLOSED DOORS YOU DONT KNOW ANYTHING. My point is, whatever’s going on, the fans are part of the village raising this kid, and always will be, wherever he goes, and maybe there’s some cards they can play and a role they can play that is necessary and prescient. I get your theory. The dude is cooked mentally, and this is making it worse. The counter point would be from a fans perspective it can’t get any worse. The outcome I’m hoping for is- and I honestly think it is legitimately in-play - is that Neo develops some kind of a chip on his shoulder. Rather than sulking sulking sulking. Currently Hammond is the only guy on the team who gets after it like he has something to prove out there. I wonder why? The answer should be obvious for anyone who’s followed this season. What did Hansberry do after dropping the ball on the blown challenge (which by the way was very weak on CMY part given that with 1.4s on the shot clock it was 90% a turnover already, can only win 0.1 possessions best case who cares?) Did he sulk did he fold? I don’t know the team dynamic but as an “insider” maybe you can - are these guys afraid to hold Neo accountable? Has anyone in Neo’s circle ever held him accountable or is he surrounded by a bunch of yes-men? Tobi Lawal looks like Kobe pulling up from 3 compared to Neo and Neo looks like Shaq at the FT line from three. That’s a problem. Even the announcers point it out the body language is terrible. He’s got a few games left in his college career and you’re right none of it matters, Neo will get drafted and nobody really cares much about what he does here. Except the fans. So is something going to change or not? I don’t care about production I don’t care about variance I don’t care about him helping the team in other ways. I care about the BODY LANGUAGE and I care about this dude being absolutely shook inbounding the ball and pulling up for rhythm 3’s. He’s so tentative and afraid to make mistakes and that SUCKS to see. I don’t care if it goes in or not I’d rather see 0-7 with him pulling up like the cockiest mf on the planet 7 times in a row than what we saw yesterday and a lot recently. I want to see Neo f’ing pissed, not shrinking. I don’t care the result. He should be pissed. He NEEDS to come out with something to prove. That’s how great players react we’ve seen it a million times. Is that a lot to ask from a 19yo? Absolutely. But that’s what we are asking for. Ball’s in your court, Neo. It’s that time in the season where freshmen aren’t freshmen anymore. He’s obviously got it in his head being told he took bad shots early in the season. He’s gotten mugged a lot. I don’t feel bad for the kid. This is ultimately something that he needs to go through, in a very spiritual way in a sense. Fans are fanatics. They’re idiots. They’re going to probably be at every game he plays in for many many years. The only choice he has is how does he respond, and I think it’s fair to say he needs a wake up call mentally. Because of what I said: not the results, but the body language. Neo should act like an ice cold killer out there. That’s what his talent level corresponds to. Not an indecisive and sheepish fawn that needs protection. The fans reaction: it’s insulting. It’s humiliating. Would a professional coach or friend etc ever do that? No. Let them be fanatics. I’d like to see Neo and those around him (yourself included) use it as fuel for a white-hot fire down the stretch where we see more guys diving on balls, more guys going HARD to the rim (where’s that from lawal d-wash style this dude should be trying to put people on posters a half dozen times a game) … more guys fouling HARD at the rim, more guys sprinting off screeners, more guys aggressively harassing ball handlers. Like I said Hammond is the only one playing with a chip on his shoulder. That’s what Neo needs and SHOULD have, not the sulking. Now’s the opportunity for that. I don’t get the wisdom in trying to protect him. Let him be a man out there. The fans cheering his benching should either be small potatoes - water off a duck’s back. Or fuel for the fire. So in that sense the response is either “who cares” or “good” … because like I said SOMETHING NEEDS TO CHANGE and that is NOT his results or stat-line per se but it IS his attitude and body language.

Tries to cover the whole world in leather. A wise man puts on shoes. It’s just a game dude. And it’s just a movie. Avdalas has a chance to become a supersoldier. It’s go time, no more kid gloves.

In all seriousness lol lighten up guys. Here’s hoping Avdalas heel turn works in our favor. Something needs to get him sharp. Stop crying about the fans booing. This isn’t a cult. He’s visibly shook out there and needs a wake-up call. Hopefully his teammates rally around him and also give him some tough love. He needs an “F YOU” game and an “F YOU” mentality if anything now we’ve got a chance for a Walter white type moment from our star and honestly that’s what it takes. Hammond only one out there playing like he has a chip on his shoulder with something to prove. Buzz and Greenberg teams were loaded with that. It would do Avdalas wonders to develop one and use it down the stretch. Was hoping today would be the “F YOU” to the world game but he’s not ready. Have some moxy young man. Go get it. Not with fadeaways. Anything but. Put the body on the line. Act like you want it. Demand the ball. Go get it on defense and on the glass and stop crying about missed shots. Go get to the line 10 times. Anything but pouting. I hope he’s pissed. He should be.

The comments about it being "insane" and that "mathematical models have huge problems" etc. - I mean, I'm not defending massey or models in general, but all these comments are fundamentally misunderstanding what these massey projections are saying. For example. Say there is a hypothetical team who, according to the math, unfortunately is playing a very unique and competitive schedule where they are actually favored to lose all 12 games they play by 1 point. The predicted season-long record for this team would be 6-6, or realistically slightly less than that like say 5.8-6.2 just to fudge a number but obviously you can't win 2/10ths of a game. These massey ratings are implying a season-win prediction of 4.27 wins on average, but is saying that we will only be favored against ODU as of this moment. just because a team isn't favored in a game doesn't mean they have 0% chance of winning it. You can arrive at this implied season-long wins projection by summing the predicted win% from each of the 12 games. 0.81+0.28+0.44+0.38+0.27+0.13+0.30+0.41+0.14+0.46+0.29+0.36 = 4.27 So on average we win 4 or 5 games this season according to the projections. Even more realistically you could say we will probably win a range of games this season based on a normal distribution. just guessing at the exact parameters, masseys models would say that we would win 4 or 5 games most often, but also a legitimate chance of winning on 3 or 6 games this season, an outside chance of going 2-10 or 7-5 depending on some luck or injuries or players outperforming expectations, but in all likelihood winning more games or winning less games than that would only happen in very freaky circumstances (less than a few percent of the time for each scenario). Honestly I think based on that his assessment is pretty fair and not really out of line with most human "expert" prognosticators, right? Which is pretty impressive for a mathematical model that has never watched a single game of football in its life .. ... ...