Thanks to Chip's Massey's reference, I grabbed some additional stats
to look at this. In addition to ranking each team they also project the probability of winning each remaining game. And you can add them to get expected-value win totals. We are favored in every remaining game but not heavy favorites in every game. For example our probability of winning against these teams: Duke 59%, Clemson 58%, UVA 69%, GT 77%
Average ranking of teams played - 108
Average rankings of teams remaining - 79
Expected record for remaining games 28 - 7
Expected ACC record 18 - 6
Expected end of season record 44 - 9
11 Replies
5mo
the “projections” that TV (and sports shows) force us to read during games and such. IMO it’s just stupid. Watch the game(s) and see how it plays out.
(In response to this post by nkhooch)
5mo
has been producing mathematical rankings for many sports for a long time. At one point he was one of the contributors to the BCS rankings. I agree it's meaningless, but people love to speculate.
Do you object to TSL staff doing pre-game match-up assessments and predicting outcomes?
(In response to this post by HOKIE SEAN)
5mo
and then everyone else with some potential upside for our two freshman. Bree has come out of nowhere and has produced in big situations against good teams. But, as she becomes more well known will she remain as effective? Hard to know.
** Edited by nkhooch at 3/2/2026, 4:10:48 PM
(In response to this post by IB4TECH)
V
VT One
5mo
hardest thing in sports, especially 50+ games a season sports, is to maintain consistency, chemistry, and focus. Also, our ace throws way too many pitches, or she has so far. The majority of our pitching is either young, inexperienced, or both. As an example, our two losses came to teams we typically beat at least eight times out of ten.
(In response to this post by IB4TECH)
J
js93
5mo
If we take all those numbers at face value, the chance of going 4-0 across 4 games against those teams is just 18% (even though individually favored in each one). So please no freaking out if/when our Hokies drop a game or two, they're doing great!
(In response to this post by nkhooch)
5mo
expected values predict we will lose 7 more games.
(In response to this post by js93)
5mo
(In response to this post by nkhooch)
5mo
are you willing to put money on finishing better than 44 - 9?
** Edited by nkhooch at 3/2/2026, 4:10:03 PM
** Edited by nkhooch at 3/2/2026, 4:17:53 PM
(In response to this post by laphroaig)
5mo
It was a super-positive "claim" by a fan being super-positive.
(In response to this post by nkhooch)
5mo
(In response to this post by laphroaig)