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Joined: 08/10/2012
Posts: 170
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js93

Warning, nerdy math-driven (thanks for the degrees , VT!) rant below

It is my biggest pet peeve when people say things like "I think the season ends today", what does that mean? Sports are probabilistic, not deterministic. Hokies have already shown they can win a game at Alabama this year, so there is very obviously a realistic chance they can win two games. If the Hokies play 100 games at Alabama, how many do you think they win? 40? 45? I'll say .45, then then the chance of winning the regional is .45*.45, good for about 20%. So, my question again is, what does you think the season ends today mean? That it is more likely than not we go home? Well, obviously, according to the math. But things with a 20% chance happen all the time! Our Hokies can absolutely win today!
Posted: 05/18/2025 at 09:44 AM ET
(In response to this post by ToledoHokie)

Thread Replies (51)

Full Thread →
Sadly, I think the season ends today…
ToledoHokie • 05/18/25 09:27 AM ET
Hope that you have your antacid ready for the crow meal. 😂 **
Hokie`79 • 05/18/25 01:10 PM ET
Why would you post this garbage, shame on you.”**
Catbird132 • 05/18/25 12:16 PM ET
Didn’t they make a statement against Stanford?
Hockeydad • 05/18/25 12:12 PM ET
Southeastern Louisiana beat LSU twice. We have 21 outs to get first one.**
NC_Hokies • 05/18/25 12:10 PM ET
Or 15 if we trounce.**
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 12:22 PM ET
Trounce Rule?**
laphroaig • 05/18/25 01:40 PM ET
Coined 👍**
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 01:42 PM ET
TRA5
laphroaig • 05/18/25 01:44 PM ET
Sounds good to me**
NC_Hokies • 05/18/25 12:23 PM ET
We are what we are? Thanks for reminding us. We are THE team who pulled
laphroaig • 05/18/25 11:39 AM ET
Dxxn right!**
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 11:40 AM ET
The odds are against us having to win two from host team
tallahasseehokie • 05/18/25 11:35 AM ET
"Order up!"**
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 12:26 PM ET
CXL’ed
LakeFredHokie • 05/18/25 11:38 AM ET
I say we beat Bama twice...Let's go Ladies...Go Hokies!!!!**
HokiesBill48 • 05/18/25 11:33 AM ET
Like Stanford?
texashokie1 • 05/18/25 11:30 AM ET
Yes they have lost some big games, but they have won some too. The
BEST2VT • 05/18/25 11:23 AM ET
Win the first game and our odds of winning the second increase dramatically
TheAmishHokie • 05/18/25 11:17 AM ET
Well yes…
hokiepro • 05/18/25 11:55 AM ET
Shown up...again**
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 11:28 AM ET
Two A level (maybe one A-) games needed to win both, O, D & Circle
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 11:02 AM ET
For entertainment, we beat bama twice. Oklahoma will embarrass us.**
SuperFeHokie • 05/18/25 10:35 AM ET
Doubt it. Hope we get the chance to see
hokiepro • 05/18/25 11:19 AM ET
Oklahoma will embarrass Alabama also.
HolidayInnHokie • 05/18/25 10:50 AM ET
Alabama did win the regular season series against Oklahoma. I want to see
dallasvt • 05/18/25 12:08 PM ET
Many are not going to like your post but it’s hard to argue your point.
WhoDatVT • 05/18/25 10:32 AM ET
Sadly, I agree!
ForgeHokie • 05/18/25 10:18 AM ET
I believe we are the better talent team or evenly talented but it really
SuperFeHokie • 05/18/25 10:17 AM ET
We won there once, beat Stanford x3
hokiepro • 05/18/25 10:03 AM ET
Stanford is not Bama (SEC) we are 2-8 vs bama.may win one definitely not 2 **
SuperFeHokie • 05/18/25 10:21 AM ET
Previous season's meetings mean nothing except in their heads and hearts
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 11:27 AM ET
We are ABSOLUTELY capable of winning today.
vt49701 • 05/18/25 09:53 AM ET
Capability mean nothing. Africa is capable of being a world power & you lol**
SuperFeHokie • 05/18/25 10:28 AM ET
Africa is not one country so it has no capability of being a world power.
laphroaig • 05/18/25 11:12 AM ET
And capability fuels the ability. Go Hokies!
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 11:33 AM ET
I think we will beat Bama,they are too cocky.**
Rahvatech • 05/18/25 09:48 AM ET
If we do beat them (and I think we can) this will NOT be the . . .
MidloHokie • 05/18/25 10:53 AM ET
I have never been in their locker room so I don't know.**
Rahvatech • 05/18/25 02:19 PM ET
Warning, nerdy math-driven (thanks for the degrees , VT!) rant below ◄
js93 • 05/18/25 09:44 AM ET
Odds don't count if it happens to me!**
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 11:50 AM ET
So you're saying we have a chance? YES!**
jesuisvtguy • 05/18/25 11:17 AM ET
The HOKIES easily could have won game 1; Bama got some breaks that…
TomA • 05/18/25 11:01 AM ET
Whats the conditional prob they win game 2 after winning game 1? ;)**
U2Hokie • 05/18/25 10:19 AM ET
Know you're teasing, but I would say they're almost completely independent!
js93 • 05/18/25 10:20 AM ET
What are the chances one player hits multiple home runs in one game?
laphroaig • 05/18/25 11:18 AM ET
As Pete 'preaches,' "live in the moment!"**
TomTurkey • 05/18/25 11:51 AM ET
We are Virginia Tech!
VPI71GC • 05/18/25 09:33 AM ET
We are 2-8 vs Bama. Do the statistics. Meaning the probability is very low.**
SuperFeHokie • 05/18/25 10:31 AM ET
Results from 2000 & 2014 have zero relevance.**
schubee • 05/18/25 01:05 PM ET
'cuz a coin that lands heads guarantees heads on the next flip...**
RRHokie90 • 05/18/25 11:40 AM ET
Every team is different so 1-2
texashokie1 • 05/18/25 11:37 AM ET