ACC Rumblings - The Late Kick with Josh Pate
In short, Josh knows what I have known for quite a few months. Link provided below to his show from last night (Friday). Starts at about the 28 minute mark.
Here is the transcript regarding his ACC water gif this past week:
Can you expound on your water gif from Twitter this week in relation to the ACC?
Yeah, I think the ACC is kind of, sort of screwed. I think the future of the conference will look radically different then it does now. There are powerful entities that are well motivated and well financially backed that want out. In other words, FSU and they're not alone. I think they're going to get out.
I put that gif out earlier this week because I have not talked about this publicly by the way. I have acquaintances shall we say. I have contacts in the legal community. These are not contacts I would normally have. I came about these contacts in a very interesting way. But I have them. And they're on the legal side of this and they're not necessarily on the football side. They're just on the legal side. I don't even know if they're aware of what Florida State's mascot is, but they're on the legal side. And I've gotten as much intel as they can give me through out this whole thing. And they've always been very, very guarded. They talk like classic legal types would talk. I can't say this, I can't tell you this, I can't tell you that, I can't respond to that. Well, earlier this week when they said, "Hey, get ready. It's coming." I put the gif out.
I don't know what the timeline is. I just know that this is the kind of person who is not one for hyperbole. Frankly I don't even think they care about the ramifications over on the college side or the conference realignment side. But they know I do. And they know people like us do. So they threw that at me and I asked a bunch of questions and I got some answers I can't share, but the long and short of it is I think that the reconstruction or reconfiguration of the ACC is pretty imminent. And I don't certainly know action is going to happen before this season. But it wouldn't stun me at all if we heard news on this front before this season starts. And that's what? Nine Saturdays away.
So yeah, if that gives you any idea of what kind of time table we're working on it wouldn't surprise me at all if we had some breaking news stories or several breaking news stories. And knowing some of the folks that work on those stories I can whole heartedly tell you those stories are in the oven as we speak. So that's what the water gif was about.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/22/2024, 11:43:19 AM
19 Replies
M
Marooned
2y
get ready; “it’s” coming?
F$U has already fouled up the ACC, both legally and in reputation. They are partly correct in noting that there’s no way to close the revenue gap with the P2 based on current conditions and trends. When they started all this there must’ve been a handshake deal with a B1G representative that there would be a landing spot for them. Does that exist still? Who knows after the PAC teams join (which would be an interesting dynamic if the ACC succeeds in dragging this out). Does a spot still exist for Clemson? Same answer. Has the SEC made any overtures to other ACC or other schools to preserve ESPN’s product inventory and counter balance the B1G’s moves? That remains to be seen.
In all of these matters, all we’re going to get is rumors until shoes start dropping again. There’s no point to these types of “insights” in the meantime. They just get folks wound up, stressed out and jaded needlessly.
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
M
Marooned
2y
When actual information and opinions get exchanged. This was none of that, just “something’s coming soon”.
Link:
New Board Theme Song?
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
2y
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
2y
flying around today.
I've been getting an abnormal amount of texts and emails concerning SEC and ESPN having heated issues that go beyond FSU/Clemson dominoes. Some heavy stuff to where you have to step away and realize it's the connected world we live in. Small rumors trying to become huge realities for news to sell.
Why can't we go back to the days of when your team's best player gets hurt and you don't find out about the extent of the injury until a week later when hard print gets delivered to your doorstep? Not sure if that wasn't a better sports information world in some regards.
Gee, ESPN and the SEC don't see eye-to-eye on some heated issues turns into gossip yammer. I do get it and why some forums such as these are tired of the hearsay. But you can always step away at least.
(In response to this post by ColoVT82)
D
daveinop
2y
the timeline for TX/OU to join the SEC because they ignored the obvious; the Big 12 GOR. The Big 12 didn't fold until they got what they wanted...pro-rata for a bunch of G5's. The magic beans...the money...to instantly whisk TX/OU away (they announced in July 2021) to the SEC wasn't there. Ultimately, ESPN used the money savings from killing LHN to pay off the Big 12 to let their darlings move a year early.
So that's what I'm looking for here. How do the "insiders" account for the easy part, the stuff we actually know? If the ACC is going to collapse in the next year or two (or in two months!), what has to happen? So far we keep getting more magic beans theories...simple majority vote to dissolve the conference...there is a fatal flaw in the GOR...ESPN has an out clause in 2027. Now it is secret legal intel; which may be the most laughable of all unless those lawyers work for the ACC (and they'll be disbarred if they do).
Can FSU get to the B1G faster than TX got to the SEC? I think they either need to pay someone A LOT of money, or they need a landmark win in court. If the ACC holds its cards, nothing is going to happen fast, imo. The ONLY way the ACC doesn't do that is if the P2 can promise enough good homes to enough teams; or ESPN puts enough money in front of the Conference to get a contraction vote regarding the lower tier football schools. Something like we'll pay you a bunch more but the crap games have to go away; we want your 10 best playing each other all season long.
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
2y
It could happen before the season or after.
It's FSU and likely others.
On top of that, his source is a lawyer working on this. I've never met a lawyer that didn't think they were winning the case.
I think ACC is on borrowed time regardless, but this report doesn't exactly sway my thoughts one way or the other.
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
S
Stech
2y
have been worked out for those leaving or staying (he is saying the ACC survives but will be much different). I don’t know if he is right or not, but he has put himself out there by saying these things, so now let’s see if he is right. I don’t understand the attacking mentality.
** Edited by Stech at 6/23/2024, 11:28:19 AM
(In response to this post by Seikoh_04)
D
daveinop
2y
there would need to be 13 votes in the conference to have some kind of contraction/relegation in football with ESPN bumping the ante in exchange for the larger fanbase teams playing each other to constitute the primary viewing content
OR
13+ votes to completely reconfigure the internal football income distribution formula.
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
He has a job to do.
(In response to this post by Stech)
W
WBGV
2y
based on information obtained from his legal sources and not from his sports or media sources. The conference reconfiguration he alludes too is necessary not because of adding members but because of subtracting members, and Pate would not be surprised if it happens within the next two months. Wow.
Could Josh Pate be referring to Clemson’s motion for a partial summary judgment on who owns an ACC school’s media rights if that school ceases to be a member? Would a favorable ruling in that case be enough for Clemson and FSU to give formal notice on exiting the conference? Would that court ruling be enough for the B1G and SEC to enter into discussions on membership with ACC schools? Would the formal notices that two or more schools are leaving the ACC impact ESPN’s decision to extend the media rights contract ( ESPN’s silence on this issue has been deafening )? I guess time will tell.
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
V
VTCALS72
2y
But I do not see any way that a school declare they are leaving then say once gone, the Agreement we signed is now null and void.
I cannot believe that the GOR, whose main frame has been reviewed by all 4 league lawyers as well as ESPN/Fox would have such a loophole. In fact it does not. The GOR in which Clemson assigned their rights to the ACC does not have ESPN as a party to it. ESPN is in fact an arms length away from it. The statement Clemson appears to be hanging their hat on assumes that somehow they did not grant those rights to the ACC but that they granted them directly to ESPN.
I don't see how any covenant of the media rights agreement applies to any individual school.
Of course from at least O.J. forward there have been some real headscratcher verdicts/rulings.
(In response to this post by WBGV)
S
Stech
2y
grads that were the founders of all of this Conference Realignment movement. Also, Ironically UNC voted against all Realignment in 2003. Yes there is more! Just months ago the North Carolina Board of Governors passes that any school leaving a conference must get their approval. You ask why did they need to do that? It doesn't end their either, the ACC is headquartered in North Carolina, has the ACC Championship football game, and host most of the ACC Championship Basketball Tournaments and many ACC Championship Baseball Tournaments. Talking about a family fight, the Hatfield's and McCoy's have nothing on these guys.
(In response to this post by Maroon Doom)
2y
and changed the landscape so much that the once highest paid conference is now stuck in a media deal that potentially puts them at the bottom of the pile. It doesn't help the ACC that a decimated B12 got a comparable deal to the ACC.
The Big 10 and SEC just lapped everyone else, and panic has set in. Add in the "revenue sharing" with the students, and you have an expensive pile of stuff to work through.
All of the sudden, athletic budgets are being blown up, and unless you are Rutgers or Indiana, you don't have an extra $30M per year in which to budget with.
I'm not sure Skipper and Swofford could see the NCAA litigation working out the way it did, nor do I think many anticipated USC paying in the Big 10. Add in the guaranteed playoff money, and you have a perfect storm.
FSU and Clemson are suing for the right to have discussions with the P2. As long as they do not have a contract until 2036, or a GOR number, they are not even allowed to talk to other conferences. That does not guarantee they have a spot in the existing framework of the P2 contracts that are already inked, and are just now starting. Likely, yes, but nothing is ever 100%.
The good news, is that a K-Sate, with an athletic budget of around $127M annually, was very competitive for over 30 years with Texas, with an athletic budget of over $270M annually. That is well over $150M per year. Based on those reported numbers, K-State with about $100M deficit with Texas annually for 30 years, equates to about a $3B deficit. Yet, they won the B12 championship two years ago.
While the B12 and ACC schools should be concerned, it is not the revenue they should be worried about. It is the "cap" on player compensation that will determine whether or not they can be competitive. If K-State has to compete for recruits based on how much revenue a school takes in, they will not remain competitive.
** Edited by Big12 guy at 6/22/2024, 1:59:10 PM
** Edited by Big12 guy at 6/22/2024, 2:01:19 PM
(In response to this post by Maroon Doom)
2y
sure. It goes deeper than that as well, as there are too many unknowns at this point. Title 9 compliance, schools being involved with NIL money (the NFL doesn't have "collectives"), distribution of the student "pay", non revs, and a few other big issues that are screaming more litigation.
It is always the unknowns that are worse than the end game. Once we have rules in place (will we?), we will be able to get back to playing ball. It doesn't even matter what the conferences look like.
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)