The B12 has a new TV contract that is about $1 mil per team per year behind the ACC from here out, and likely even more ahead of the PAC. FSU should just enjoy themselves for the next 7 years or so by beating their ACC peers every year and getting a playoff bye. If they can pull that off, then they can do whatever they want.

is Michael Alford, a neer do well booster plant in the FSU AD office presenting his version of lies, damn lies and statistics. The analysis and presentation is simplistic and shoddy because it omits any discussion of the GOR and potential costs, be it rights or cost to litigate, in calculating total cost to recover in a breakeven scenario and that is even before the impact on operational costs and cost to make a conference change. All of this mind you assumes there is a conference out there willing to accept FSU and their impact on that conference's distribution. If this is anything more than mindless sabre rattling then any trustee executing their oversight and fiduciary responsibilities will likely have far more questions than answers arising from that presentation. Maybe there was more either not mentioned in the story or shared with Trustees privately but, if that was all there was it is just more evidence that FSU's issues run much deeper than money.

Who did they play. LSU, UF, and Oklahoma. About half or more of their games were on ACCN. That tells me two things. 1) they are a big draw among ACC fans 2) they aren't a big enough draw for ESPN/ABC to want them on the main networks

This is a great opportunity to try a little mind-reading. Perhaps the GoR barrier was omitted as a deliberate message to the others. FSU is being cautious to avoid interfering with any ACC contracts including GoR. Also since that very conspicuous omission will alert the other schools that FSU thinks there is some chance that the GoR can be defeated. Other schools will thoroughly re-examine the GoR and, if it were me, find out which law firms and consultancies FSU is employing (out of curiosity, of course.) If FSU fails to break the GoR, they will not curl up and die. They will pay the $120 million exit fee (negotiated down?) They become an independent program. The NCAA requires that they play five home games each season to remain Division 1 AQ (P5.) At least four of those must be P5 and one may be G5 who meets minimum scholarship requirements. I have read lawyers in other realignment discussions indicate that even though The ACC will own media rights to FSU's home games, the conference must still pay FSU for that content. The remaining seven games will have to be road games as cash for their appearance and no consideration for media. How much will other schools pay FSU to have a "buy" game. And can FSU continue to support more than a minimum number of Olympic sports? If they get regular road games, they will not starve. This reminds me of USC AD, Mike Bohn, in 2021, saying that USC deserves to be paid at the level of Texas and Ohio Sate. And if The PAC couldn't provide that, then USC would consider alternatives. (paraphrase)

Better to hang out in the ACC, and look into bolting in 2033 or so. By then, if they are good enough, they will have won a few ACC championships again and gotten a few playoff byes.

because you would like to see the ACC harmed and you're mad the Big 12 has already taken the shaft. Your last sentence is a good analogy. Ask yourself when USC pulled the plug on the PAC 12? Ask yourself when UT and OU finally will leave the Big 12? The financial implications of the GOR are onerous, the costs to litigate substantial and the outcomes questionable and, realistically, other than committing financial suicide, you need to dissolve the conference or get so deep into the GOR term that its leverage is significantly minimized. The ACC schools signed the GOR because that was their best option at the time and I doubt at present enough schools have a better option to make a dissolution vote.

Mr. hoop, I started my post by saying it was "mind-reading." I was taking guesses about what cryptic messages might be seeping out of that public meeting. In your post you did some mind-reading of your own: I "want to see the ACC harmed" and I'm "mad the Big12 has.." Well I assure you that I'm not mad at any of the conferences or member schools. I'm mad only at the two biggest media companies. Regarding the timing of TX/OK and USC/UCLA, yes the GoRs are about to expire, lowering the financial risk. But FSU has two bad choices: stay with the current contract/GoR until expiry is drawing close, or try to beat the GoR today. As time goes by, the cost of fighting the GoR becomes smaller, maybe. But can we predict what the payout gap will be by then? $100 million? The price of leaving early could be even higher by then. As for the details of the GoR, I suspect that you haven't seen it. The original GoR is floating around the internet, but it was altered in 2016 and never made public. Maybe it is flawed. And if it is, don't be mad. ** Edited by 33laszlo99 at 2/26/2023, 7:43:05 PM

Given the current contract terms of conferences for the gap to reach $100MM there would need to be massive shifts. The current gap grew from around $10MM to $30MM in the last 12 years and that includes the formation of conference networks and 2 pairs of the highest profile programs to move the TV needle. The only real player left on the board is ND. Your are also correct that I have not seen the GOR but, that does not mean I do not know people that have seen the most current version. It will be interesting to watch it play out and where the mind reading turns out to be accurate and where it turns out to be not so accurate.

the wall. Forecasting the price of media rights in the next few years does not lend itself a conservative approach. Things are going to blow up. The restructuring of the playoffs by 2026 is going to cause some desperate college presidents into risky behavior that they would never have considered in the past. What I just wrote there is opinion, no more. I say what I really think will happen whether I approve or disapprove of the act. Maybe you know, or think you know, what is in the GoR. No shortage of people on the message boards who make the claim. I was talking to a guy in Huntsville, AL. He was from Cleveland. He said when Len Barker pitched a perfect game in 1981 that the stadium wasn't even half full. But to this day there are hundreds of thousands of Clevelanders who swear they attended that game.

you will have a better chance of getting something to stick though if its foundation is either based on reality or at least defensible logic.

So says a FSU fan in the comments under that Link. He also I think properly stated that was done purposely to withstand any test in court. They were mentioning legal actions against Swofford for what amounts to malfeasance as a possible course. They also I think more realistically talked about the ACC being broke up from within. Thereby just muting that GOR. They said 2/3 or 3/4 of the ACC members with the choice on those two percentages probably needing to be legally interpreted. They said going with 3/4 would be 12 members. The 15 members plus the ACC Commissioner voting. They talked about eight or so ACC schools already having P2 landing spots mapped out and remaining needed ACC schools being bought off with big parting monetary gifts. They are really pleased with Michael Alford. You have to think they are dead serious about all this from FSU Administrators down. You have to wonder how the Administrators at the other ACC schools feel about all this. This all did break on a Friday. We will see what is heard from around the ACC next week. If it is Silence? That will be very telling.

I have no dog in the fight. I realize there are many lifelong ACC fans who regularly post on this site. I will not enjoy the demise of the ACC anymore than I enjoyed the demise of the SWC. The SWC actually died when UT steered {pun there) a merger with the Big 8. Which Broyles had accurately predicted in the late 1980's. Broyles stated then that "Texas would not take care of Arkansas, Arkansas therefore must take of themselves." That was clearly proven in 1995, when Texas left Rice, Houston, SMU & TCU, blowing in the wind. I think VT and all the other ACC schools besides FSU now need a Frank Broyles. If anyone here sees my somewhat neutral all facts approach here as rude & crude. I will gladly cease posting here. I would rather do that than offend anyone.

They probably believe they will take over the SEC. I hope they are a perennial bottom feeder in the SEC.

God help them.

If it moves to Dallas, Watch Out!

anywhere in Texas, they are screwed.

if this was more than just wishful thinking from fans it would not only be in the comments section of the story. Of course they like Alford, they put him in the seat he now occupies but, that doesn't mean he is remotely competent and, if he is, he would be the first FSU AD to fit that description in a while. The 8 of the 12 already having landing spots is a fanciful joke. What do you believe silence will tell? It may not mean what you think.

Arkansas did some conference moving in the early 1990's. It was immediately vilified by the entire state of Texas as destroying the SWC. Just as FSU is being vilified by you here. The last thing those Texans were Is Silent. No internet in those days but the newspapers were full of quotes declaring "Get the Hell Out" & "Don't let the Screen Door Hit Your *** on The Way Out". Those weren't quotes from football fans. They were quotes of statements made by rival Texas AD's & Head Football Coaches. Those same people had very publicly pleaded with Arkansas all summer not to exit to the SEC. You can enjoy your basketball and act disillusioned. Doubt you are even a football fan. However silence in a situation like this is not Golden.

football fan as long as you have been alive. How did that move work out for the Hogs? I didn't villify FSU but, I did criticize its leadership. Doesn't appear vocal helped the Arkansas situation back then and silence does not mean action is not taking place behind the scenes.

However I don't think I have made 1/2 dozen comments on an internet basketball blog since Nolan Richardson left. Arkansas did well enough in the SEC during the first nearly two decades. However Saban being hired at Alabama and the Hogs' head football coaching hires after Broyles left have been atrocious. Bielema was bad but Chad Morris had to be one of the worst couple P5 hirings in history. Now they have Pittman who is too old to motivate a football team once Jimmy Sexton got him a raise to $7 Million per year. Pittman retired right then. If all the other ACC members secretly get together and anti up that $30 Million every year for FSU. All will probably be fine over about the next decade. I don't know if you are a VT fan or what? However do you think your fav ACC program will give millions every year just to keep FSU happy? They are going to have to do exactly that.

indeed long in the tooth. I agree with your first paragraph and I expect anything is likely better than having to put up with the arrogance of the Longhorns, however, I wonder if competitively, and with the foresight of the wealth accumulation of some Razorback fans if the Hogs might have enjoyed more success had they remained in the SWC and its successors. As far as your 2nd paragraph, I am a VT fan with family ties to a number of ACC schools. I doubt ANY ACC school will willingly ante up $30 million to entice FSU nor am I convinced that is the actual number or a relative value of FSU importance to the league. I doubt either the SEC would ante up full price for a market they already have in footprint and I am not sure the BIG would make enough off the addition to to make it anti-dilutive to existing member shares. They are already carrying Rutgers and Maryland. FSU fired a shot and we will see in the coming days whether it was a blank. The problem with bluffing starts when someone calls your bluff so we will just have to see how it plays out and what the actual reality might be.

Arkansas would have always fit as easily in the Big 8 as the SWC. I remember Broyles &Tom Osborne of Nebraska seriously having a public discussion about Arkansas entering the Big 8. I was a kid with an older sister married & living in Kansas. I wanted Arkansas to move to the Big 8. However Broyles roots were in the SEC, Georgia born & an old Georgia Tech 3-Time All-SEC QB. FSU did put up TV viewing stats that might merit SEC & B1G offers. However looking at the way the B1G stalled on the Pac schools. Who knows? Things is this country economically just might be causing second thoughts on these expansions. I think they probably should be.

numbers as well as finally got around to reading the comments to the article. I commend the FSU personnel for cherry picking data to try and prop up their valuation case. I am not sure the fans commenting on the article, aside from possibly the one lawyer, really have a clue. It will be interesting to see whether any media push back on FSU numbers. I doubt any member or the conference office will push back publicly other than possibly feeding other media members off the record on the glaring holes and only IF it works to benefit their agenda. Arkansas with Broyles, Holtz and Richardson was always entertaining. Holtz showed a lot of moxie in that Orange Bowl and the Triplets and 40 minutes of Hell was great TV. I hated when they went to SEC. I could have lived with the Big 8.

That was a #1 ranked Oklahoma team they thrashed around in that Orange Bowl. Holtz had just suspended three star players off that football squad, one being the SWC league leading RB. Those were great teams. FSU said those TV viewing stats ranked them the 3rd most watched team against all the teams in both the SEC & B1G TV rankings. Ahead of SEC teams as Alabama. That is all hard to buy, especially consider how FSU has played the last decade on a football field. Concerning that Mike Norvell. Norvell is a Texan but he played college football at UCA in Conway, Arkansas. Conway in located not even 30 miles NW of Little Rock. Of course Norvell was at Memphis. However, when Bielema was fired. It came down to Mike Norvell & Chad Morris who was the SMU head coach in Dallas. I thought Norvell had the Arkansas job and Norvell had interviewed, and I think Norvell thought he had the job. Norvell started following all the football recruits that Arkansas had committed on the internet platforms. Anyway, Clint Stoerner who was living in Dallas, a Texas born ex QB for the Hogs started hitting all the radio spots saying Chad Morris was the man for the Hog job. I think it was all cooked up by Jerry Jones. Jerry Jones had an undersized grandson playing QB in a Dallas high school that just had one major college scholly offer from Texas Tech. When Morris was hired at Arkansas, one of the first scollies he offered was to Jerry Jones' grandson. Why do billionaires need a scholarship? Great question, but then he would never be labeled a simple walk-on. Anyway. Morris played loud hip-hop music at football practices and danced around like a fruit cake for not even two years before being fired. Mike Norvell was contacted again before Pittman was hired three years ago. Norvell would not even return phone calls to Arkansas about the Job. Norvell was at that time in contact with FSU where he was soon hired. Lane Kiffin also turned Arkansas down to go to Ole Miss. The Hog football stock dropping like a bomb with those bad coaching hires.

I commend the FSU folks for cherrypicking stats. I feel certain that a deep dive on their numbers would show they played fast and loose with the data. Ironic that Kiffin's dad was the DC on that Orange Bowl team and Houston Nutt was the backup QB to Calcagni. Roland Sales made the most of his night too. I have to stay away from Jerry Jones otherwise I just get pissed off. ** Edited by 2hhoop3 at 2/27/2023, 5:41:34 PM

Petrino had no problem beating Texas A&M as Hog coach. These other loser Hog head coaching hires choke on that game every year. Still has two more years on the Jerry's World contract. A blessing to get that game out of Texas every year. Ironic to now see Petrino with Jimbo. I don't think those two will get along until the water gets hot. Arkansas fired the AD right along with Bielema. They put a woman in as interim AD. That left a lot of wiggle room available for the whales as Jerry Jones to manipulate a hire. Chad Morris was hired within hours of each other right along with Yurachek who was/is the new AD. Yurachek did hire Pittman but he also hired Eric Musselman. So, Yurachek is one out of two. I think Pittman will be fired within two years. That woman interim AD left for a job in an athletic dept.,up north soon after Morris' hiring. Morris never won an SEC game and lost at home to San Jose State, just the bottom of the barrel low points in a horrendous job of coaching. I just wanted to clarify that. The AD does hire head football coaches in general, not the whales. However this was a situation with an AD void where I think Jones meddled.

From the article: An estimated look at what an uneven distribution model could look like in the ACC came via @ricobert11, with FSU leading the conference at $61.6 million and Duke bringing up the rear at $19.8 million. ACC distributed $36.1m per school on average in 2022. If based on viewership? 1. FSU $61.6m 2. CU $59.9m 3. UM $39.6m 4. UL $39.2m 5. VT $37.3m 6. SYR $34.2m 7. GT $33m 8. UVA $ 32.6m 9. Pitt $32m 10. NCSU $32m 11. UNC $30.5m 12. BC $29m 13. WF $24.5m 14. DU $19.8m Seems that FSU has done some research on themselves, and surprisingly they have come out on top. :-) Side Bar: One thing that makes sense if this is close to being true, is that the 4 schools ranked over Virginia Tech all have another SEC school in their state. Twice in the last 10 years Finebaum either himself or a host said Virginia Tech needed to call the SEC. So if Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Kentucky don't want their rivals in the SEC, the next choice would be Virginia Tech, but we all know that Fuente/Pry records of late, are horrendous. I guess we will see if Pry can coach up 3 stars to 4 stars and 4 stars to 5 stars like Beamer did in his heyday. In the meantime, FSU would pay at least 100 million to leave and hundreds of millions in TV rights after that, the article said at least another 400 million. That's a half a billion dollars, I don't care what they are making, that's crazy money to pay. I have been saying and I will keep saying it, the ACC needs the Sweet 16 to pay out like the football playoff or maybe even now to form a completely different conference with the top ACC, PAC and even Big 12 schools and negotiate a completely different TV deal. The ACC would have to have enough leave to dissolve the conference and has anyone heard what the B12 GOR is? That is suspiciously quiet right now.

Let's see what TV ratings are for schools across all sports combined. ** Edited by tarheelblue at 2/26/2023, 12:30:52 PM

Generally, football games gets he best ratings. But if a football game gets 10 million viewers and a basketball game gets 10 million viewers, then those two games have the exact same value to the broadcaster. Because advertisement rates are linked to ratings. ESPN owns the rights to all ACC sports, not just football games. So all broadcast games have some value, which is roughly proportional to the number of viewers. So to get a true measure of value of any individual school, you must add up all viewers across all sports broadcasts, not just football. ** Edited by tarheelblue at 2/26/2023, 3:48:24 PM

goes to the NCAA, 🏈 goes to the teams/conferences. Until they pay the Sweet 16 like they pay the playoff 12, basketball ratings don’t have the impact of 🏈 ratings. That’s why they need to go to 90 in the tournament so the NCAA machine has there money, but the Sweet 16 payout has to change for the 🏀 schools to make similar money.

Most of the basketball money is in the NCAA tournament because the tournament games usually get the highest ratings, and the NCAA owns the rights to tournament games. But the conferences hold the rights to the regular season games. If regular season basketball game gets the same ratings as a regular season football game, then those two games hold the same value for the networks and thus produce the same amount of revenue for the conference. If a regular season water polo game got the same ratings as a football game, then the value of those two games would be equal. So it still holds that to get an accurate measure of what a school is worth, you must add up all the ratings across all the regular season games that are broadcast. ** Edited by tarheelblue at 2/26/2023, 11:55:51 PM

The numbers just don't work out for them to leave right now or in the near future. The uneven distribution model will only create more negative issues for the ACC. Even with the proposed model, FSU and Clemson will still be far behind the schools in the B1G and SEC. Meanwwhile, nine ACC schools will be making less money than they did in 2022, putting them even further behind the B1G and SEC schools. That will further weaken the ACC. No way those nine ACC schools vote for that model, especially the three private schools (BC, Duke and Wake). The truth is, FSU will still be unhappy with their $61.6 annual distribution. Tech, Louisville and Miami will be making about the same as they did before. The other nine schools will be making less. FSU will eventually leave the ACC, leaving behind a much weaker conference than they had before the uneven distribution model. Maybe it's the new uneven distribution model that will finally force schools to want to break up the ACC?

It would be awesome though if we tied the uneven distribution to performance and then FSU tanked, and VT, NC State and Pitt started winning more than everyone. ** Edited by Truthahn at 2/28/2023, 1:48:12 PM

Administrators all around the ACC is the most logically damning thing about all this.