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Number of teams will ultimately be informed by media content requirement
I.e. ESPN wants to sell $X worth of advertising airtime, but X is a product of the number and quality of the games (Ohio State vs Michigan is presumably worth more than Indiana vs Purdue). However, even games like the latter aren't worthless as advertising vehicles. This will probably mean that any future Divison 1-A+ or 1-S or whatever you want to call it for football isn't going to be optimized strictly for competitiveness.
What I mean by that is, right now, as college football is currently structured, there's really only a pool of about 10-15 teams who have any believable shot at competing for a national title at any point between now and the next 5 years. A hyper-competitive league would just take those teams, and every league game they played would be very compelling for the viewer (even the SEC still has clunkers like Alabama-Vanderbilt). But they won't play enough games for ESPN to hit their price target, they need more content than just 6-8 games per week. So they need to add a bunch more teams as filler, basically. Those teams, as of today, will never compete for a league/national title and will mostly never even win their conference title, they'll just have to hope for a winning record each year and maybe score an upset once in a while.
I kept talking about how things currently are, because it would be easy to create a far more well-rounded and competitive league, with more than just 10-15 teams, by instituting a couple simple (but hard-to-swallow for some people) changes. #1, get rid of scholarships, and thus the scholarship limit, which is an imperfect proxy for salary cap, and just pay players directly. No games of "you should come to Texas because we have many fans who love giving lucrative NIL deals to current Texas players, wink wink," programs just negotiate a salary based on their desire/need for a certain player. Let the players form a union (ideal) or have them all be a bunch of individual 1099s (still better than what we currently have). #2, institute program-wide salary cap. Do you want to pay big money for an elite coaching staff and less on the players, or do you spend it all on the players and just get an unremarkable coach? It'd be program's discretion, but it's all against the same cap space. Finally, #3 directly follows, how do you determine the cap for the league? Suppose ESPN says that the right number of teams is 40, maybe it's 4 conferences of 10 teams, whatever. Take that 40th-best program and use them as the benchmark, some kind of rolling average of the last 5 years of what they've spent on football, you can even let debt service payments against the stadium count for it. If you think that indexing the cap against the worst team is way too fair, then have the cap be the median spending (NOT the average) of your entire 40 team league (my guess is this would put it somewhere down in the 25-30 range).
Doing something like this immediately cripples the dynamic of what's been allowed to happen over the years (and has become greatly pronounced over the last 10-20), where the top programs have no limit on what they can spend, which over time increases the functional gap between them and the rest of the teams in their conference, since they naturally accumulate the best coaches, best players, best facilities, etc. The Alabamas and Ohio States would absolutely hate such a system, and scream and howl and cry huge crocodile tears of anguish, which is how you know it would work to create competitive parity.
What I mean by that is, right now, as college football is currently structured, there's really only a pool of about 10-15 teams who have any believable shot at competing for a national title at any point between now and the next 5 years. A hyper-competitive league would just take those teams, and every league game they played would be very compelling for the viewer (even the SEC still has clunkers like Alabama-Vanderbilt). But they won't play enough games for ESPN to hit their price target, they need more content than just 6-8 games per week. So they need to add a bunch more teams as filler, basically. Those teams, as of today, will never compete for a league/national title and will mostly never even win their conference title, they'll just have to hope for a winning record each year and maybe score an upset once in a while.
I kept talking about how things currently are, because it would be easy to create a far more well-rounded and competitive league, with more than just 10-15 teams, by instituting a couple simple (but hard-to-swallow for some people) changes. #1, get rid of scholarships, and thus the scholarship limit, which is an imperfect proxy for salary cap, and just pay players directly. No games of "you should come to Texas because we have many fans who love giving lucrative NIL deals to current Texas players, wink wink," programs just negotiate a salary based on their desire/need for a certain player. Let the players form a union (ideal) or have them all be a bunch of individual 1099s (still better than what we currently have). #2, institute program-wide salary cap. Do you want to pay big money for an elite coaching staff and less on the players, or do you spend it all on the players and just get an unremarkable coach? It'd be program's discretion, but it's all against the same cap space. Finally, #3 directly follows, how do you determine the cap for the league? Suppose ESPN says that the right number of teams is 40, maybe it's 4 conferences of 10 teams, whatever. Take that 40th-best program and use them as the benchmark, some kind of rolling average of the last 5 years of what they've spent on football, you can even let debt service payments against the stadium count for it. If you think that indexing the cap against the worst team is way too fair, then have the cap be the median spending (NOT the average) of your entire 40 team league (my guess is this would put it somewhere down in the 25-30 range).
Doing something like this immediately cripples the dynamic of what's been allowed to happen over the years (and has become greatly pronounced over the last 10-20), where the top programs have no limit on what they can spend, which over time increases the functional gap between them and the rest of the teams in their conference, since they naturally accumulate the best coaches, best players, best facilities, etc. The Alabamas and Ohio States would absolutely hate such a system, and scream and howl and cry huge crocodile tears of anguish, which is how you know it would work to create competitive parity.
Thread Replies (82)
Dabo Swinney on CFB: "40 or 50 teams and a commissioner"
-- goldendomer
Apr 09, 2022 at 12:01 AM ET
goldendomer
•
04/09/22 12:01 AM ET
UNC and UVA will follow the money**
-- MrFantastic!
Apr 12, 2022 at 05:56 AM ET
MrFantastic!
•
04/12/22 05:56 AM ET
How much television revenue would it generate?**
-- EDGEMAN
Apr 11, 2022 at 10:06 AM ET
EDGEMAN
•
04/11/22 10:06 AM ET
Gee, maybe there will be a TRANSFORMATION COMMITTEE that works on this
-- daveinop
Apr 10, 2022 at 08:36 AM ET
daveinop
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04/10/22 08:36 AM ET
My first question: Would VT follow into this new alignment?**
-- VTNSC
Apr 09, 2022 at 12:27 PM ET
VTNSC
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04/09/22 12:27 PM ET
If we are talking closer to 40 teams, then probably not unless VT
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 09, 2022 at 02:41 PM ET
VTHokie2000
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04/09/22 02:41 PM ET
For the sake of argument, what impact would be on VT if it were included
-- IB4TECH
Apr 16, 2022 at 09:19 AM ET
IB4TECH
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04/16/22 09:19 AM ET
Good question. It might depend on what "rules" the group agrees upon.
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 16, 2022 at 11:25 AM ET
VTHokie2000
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04/16/22 11:25 AM ET
Currently only about 15 or fewer schools average 80,000. VT typically ranks
-- wwhokie1
Apr 13, 2022 at 03:00 PM ET
wwhokie1
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04/13/22 03:00 PM ET
The number was just a random number I threw out there.
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 13, 2022 at 03:41 PM ET
VTHokie2000
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04/13/22 03:41 PM ET
According to a 2020 article by College Football News the top 40 in
-- wwhokie1
Apr 13, 2022 at 05:25 PM ET
wwhokie1
•
04/13/22 05:25 PM ET
I don't disagree if attendance is the deciding factor.
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 13, 2022 at 05:30 PM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/13/22 05:30 PM ET
Attendance will be a factor though because this league will want programs
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 04:18 AM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/12/22 04:18 AM ET
Stadium capacity does not need to increase.**
-- marcbvtgm
Apr 10, 2022 at 03:47 PM ET
marcbvtgm
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04/10/22 03:47 PM ET
If the new league decides to have a minimum stadium requirement in order
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 04:20 AM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/12/22 04:20 AM ET
Lane is in the Top 25 in stadium capacity right now.
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 03:35 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/09/22 03:35 PM ET
Yes, VT can add to Lane. However, there is no guarantee that the
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 09, 2022 at 06:11 PM ET
VTHokie2000
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04/09/22 06:11 PM ET
And consider the impact of money spent. Money spent on expanding Lane will
-- wwhokie1
Apr 13, 2022 at 05:33 PM ET
wwhokie1
•
04/13/22 05:33 PM ET
Maybe decrease the price of admission or give unsold tickets to...
-- EDGEMAN
Apr 14, 2022 at 09:49 AM ET
EDGEMAN
•
04/14/22 09:49 AM ET
A 20 team league is way too small. Would destroy interest**
-- jesuisvtguy
Apr 11, 2022 at 12:04 AM ET
jesuisvtguy
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04/11/22 12:04 AM ET
Maybe it will and maybe it won't. If the schools truly commit to the idea,
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 04:06 AM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/12/22 04:06 AM ET
Duplicate post. Sorry. Delete. Thanks.**
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 09:57 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/09/22 09:57 PM ET
If it is 16-20 teams, we won't be in it anyway.
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 09:56 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
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04/09/22 09:56 PM ET
As I stated before if the league is 40-50 teams, then VT could still
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 04:29 AM ET
VTHokie2000
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04/12/22 04:29 AM ET
I'm assuming they won't do it this way if they do it at all.
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 12, 2022 at 01:36 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/12/22 01:36 PM ET
Why use Wyoming as an example? I certainly never used Wyoming
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 10:09 PM ET
VTHokie2000
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04/12/22 10:09 PM ET
I didn't see your list, but it really doesn't matter.
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 12, 2022 at 11:14 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
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04/12/22 11:14 PM ET
I don't believe the Big XII is done expanding. Likewise, I wouldn't
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 11:22 PM ET
VTHokie2000
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04/12/22 11:22 PM ET
You may be right. And demographics change over time. That's all the more
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 12, 2022 at 11:58 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
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04/12/22 11:58 PM ET
Promotion/Relegation isn't in the American culture though. If it was, then
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 13, 2022 at 02:11 PM ET
VTHokie2000
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04/13/22 02:11 PM ET
I realize it isn't in the American sports culture, but it should be.
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 13, 2022 at 03:34 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/13/22 03:34 PM ET
Depending on how things play out, it may not take JMU as long as you think
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 13, 2022 at 03:51 PM ET
VTHokie2000
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04/13/22 03:51 PM ET
Who says who is in or out?
-- 33laszlo99
Apr 09, 2022 at 03:12 PM ET
33laszlo99
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04/09/22 03:12 PM ET
Typically those paying for it have a say. If it's ESPN TV money they will.**
-- RTFC
Apr 10, 2022 at 10:27 PM ET
RTFC
•
04/10/22 10:27 PM ET
Actually, I didn't have anyone in mind because it may end up being
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 09, 2022 at 05:58 PM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/09/22 05:58 PM ET
And to whose benefit would it be if conferences fractured and disposed of
-- 33laszlo99
Apr 09, 2022 at 08:24 PM ET
33laszlo99
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04/09/22 08:24 PM ET
The schools' benefit. Fewer teams = larger piece of pie for each school
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 04:46 AM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/12/22 04:46 AM ET
Dabo is right that the P5 need their own setup.
-- Hokester
Apr 09, 2022 at 10:01 AM ET
Hokester
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04/09/22 10:01 AM ET
Might as well move into an NFL-EPL hybrid model for football
-- EDGEMAN
Apr 09, 2022 at 11:26 AM ET
EDGEMAN
•
04/09/22 11:26 AM ET
I think stadium size would be a good qualifier
-- EDGEMAN
Apr 09, 2022 at 06:27 PM ET
EDGEMAN
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04/09/22 06:27 PM ET
Should keep in mind that NFL average capacity does not even reach 70,000**
-- wwhokie1
Apr 13, 2022 at 05:37 PM ET
wwhokie1
•
04/13/22 05:37 PM ET
Average attendance would be better.
-- obguthr
Apr 10, 2022 at 12:29 PM ET
obguthr
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04/10/22 12:29 PM ET
In that case, Miami will definitely be "out"**
-- EDGEMAN
Apr 10, 2022 at 01:39 PM ET
EDGEMAN
•
04/10/22 01:39 PM ET
Pitt has a big stadium that they don't own, that is half full usually.
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 09:19 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/09/22 09:19 PM ET
Attendance will force schools to adjust their ticket prices
-- EDGEMAN
Apr 10, 2022 at 08:35 AM ET
EDGEMAN
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04/10/22 08:35 AM ET
Where do they draw the line?
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 12:32 AM ET
Maroon Baboon
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04/09/22 12:32 AM ET
Number of teams will ultimately be informed by media content requirement
◄
-- Synaesthesia
Apr 09, 2022 at 12:32 PM ET
Synaesthesia
•
04/09/22 12:32 PM ET
It's all predicated on how many regular season games each school will play
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 03:15 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/09/22 03:15 PM ET
I don't hate the idea of relegation; 'boundary' programs are always hurt
-- Synaesthesia
Apr 09, 2022 at 03:46 PM ET
Synaesthesia
•
04/09/22 03:46 PM ET
When did UConn announce it was returning to DI-FCS in football?
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 09, 2022 at 06:14 PM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/09/22 06:14 PM ET
You're right, I thought it was finalized, but just under consideration**
-- Synaesthesia
Apr 09, 2022 at 06:48 PM ET
Synaesthesia
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04/09/22 06:48 PM ET
No worries. Personally, I do think UConn and UMass should both switch
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 09, 2022 at 07:30 PM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/09/22 07:30 PM ET
Valid concerns. If you look at the EFL, they have yo-yo clubs.
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 04:03 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/09/22 04:03 PM ET
The problem with doing it every year is that all the participating teams
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 09, 2022 at 06:22 PM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/09/22 06:22 PM ET
It can and should be every year. And the home and away thing won't be
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 10:03 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
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04/09/22 10:03 PM ET
You can't be sure it won't be a problem though. For example, let say this
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 04:11 AM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/12/22 04:11 AM ET
Actually, this schedule makes the home games more of a lock.
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 12, 2022 at 11:58 AM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/12/22 11:58 AM ET
All teams aren't equal though and that is the point you are overlooking or
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 10:25 PM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/12/22 10:25 PM ET
I'm not over looking it. But when you play a legit FULL schedule
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 12, 2022 at 11:03 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/12/22 11:03 PM ET
But you can't say that VT's home schedule is equal to its away schedule
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 12, 2022 at 11:16 PM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/12/22 11:16 PM ET
I will address your concerns one at a time
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 13, 2022 at 12:07 AM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/13/22 12:07 AM ET
I hate to disappoint you, but your A) answer failed to address my
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 13, 2022 at 09:48 AM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/13/22 09:48 AM ET
To clarify - I wasn't asking you to try to persuade me on the position
-- VTHokie2000
Apr 13, 2022 at 11:53 AM ET
VTHokie2000
•
04/13/22 11:53 AM ET
Time to think outside the box
-- 33laszlo99
Apr 09, 2022 at 02:34 PM ET
33laszlo99
•
04/09/22 02:34 PM ET
ESPN is involved because - you are right
-- RTFC
Apr 10, 2022 at 10:50 PM ET
RTFC
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04/10/22 10:50 PM ET
Totally agree about ESPN. Their interests are counter to the longterm
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 03:24 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/09/22 03:24 PM ET
The thing is though, they don't do that in the many pro sports with a cap
-- Synaesthesia
Apr 09, 2022 at 03:22 PM ET
Synaesthesia
•
04/09/22 03:22 PM ET
We are in the wild west for now.
-- goldendomer
Apr 09, 2022 at 12:46 AM ET
goldendomer
•
04/09/22 12:46 AM ET
I see another division (P-4 or P-5)
-- Old Line Hokie
Apr 09, 2022 at 08:36 AM ET
Old Line Hokie
•
04/09/22 08:36 AM ET
The problem is, conferences are no longer equal.
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 04:17 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/09/22 04:17 PM ET
When was the last time conferences were equal?**
-- Old Line Hokie
Apr 09, 2022 at 08:10 PM ET
Old Line Hokie
•
04/09/22 08:10 PM ET
Never. But the disparity was much closer in the past. Between 1968 and 1981
-- Maroon Baboon
Apr 09, 2022 at 11:41 PM ET
Maroon Baboon
•
04/09/22 11:41 PM ET
My guess now is 48, I really thought it would be 4 PC’s w/ 16, but it’s
-- Stech
Apr 09, 2022 at 03:26 AM ET
Stech
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04/09/22 03:26 AM ET
VT, the university, has for decades been more alike the Big 10
-- Synaesthesia
Apr 09, 2022 at 02:33 PM ET
Synaesthesia
•
04/09/22 02:33 PM ET
Agreed, but having that elusive AAU card would still be helpful**
-- obguthr
Apr 10, 2022 at 11:08 AM ET
obguthr
•
04/10/22 11:08 AM ET
Thank you so much !!!!!! bingo
-- Mercury
Apr 09, 2022 at 04:55 PM ET
Mercury
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04/09/22 04:55 PM ET