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Personally, it’s all about money to me
It’s going to cost them to leave. And it’s going to cost them to stay.
They probably don’t have the money it takes to leave now. $120M penalty for leaving early. Add to that TV rights over 13 years equaling about $812.5M (using the B1G’s 2023-24 rate of about $62.5M per school through the entirety of the 2036 ACC GOR (even though it’s going above that $62.5M in the future so I’m cutting them some slack) and you are looking at a bill of roughly $932.5M.
Now you could argue present value of future cash flows and all that but it’s a really big number. But settlements always happen. Texas and OU I think had to pay like $50M to the Big XII to leave one freaking year early. So I’d guess no less than $300M+ in a settlement with the ACC (unless the ACC leadership is just weak as they can be). Nobody has pockets that deep.
But they also really can’t afford to stay very long if they want to keep up with their competition (Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Bama, etc…). They’re going to be at a deficit of at least $30-$50M per year for the next 13 years. That adds up to a similarly large number.
Personally I’d get my high level donors on board (and FSU has to have a few deep pockets) with trying to fundraise and build a war chest over a period of a few years to attack a future settlement fee that might end up closer to $200M by 2030. At the same time I’d announce it as soon as your mind is set. The Big Ten has to be happy until 2030. But they have to also presently see the value in expanding again at in 2030 for their next deal. FSU has to be way at the top of their list. So announce it now. Try to freak out the rest of the ACC, or ESPN or the SEC or Big XII. Create instability if instability helps you meet your end goal.
Thread Replies (61)
So when does the FSU President come out and debunk this rumor?
-- Stech
Jul 31, 2023 at 11:09 AM ET
Stech
•
07/31/23 11:09 AM ET
FSU insiders say Michael Alford FSU AD had a meeting this morning and
-- HoakieCup
Jul 31, 2023 at 07:39 PM ET
HoakieCup
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07/31/23 07:39 PM ET
Why would ESPN renegotiate a contract so they can lose FSU to the BIG?
-- wwhokie1
Jul 31, 2023 at 10:22 PM ET
wwhokie1
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07/31/23 10:22 PM ET
And, I don't think FSU's plan will work either. Essentially, they are
-- HoakieCup
Aug 01, 2023 at 08:30 AM ET
HoakieCup
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08/01/23 08:30 AM ET
Correct. on your assumption.**
-- HoakieCup
Aug 01, 2023 at 07:37 AM ET
HoakieCup
•
08/01/23 07:37 AM ET
Props on six edits. I respect the dedication to post quality**
-- HokieAl
Jul 31, 2023 at 09:12 PM ET
HokieAl
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07/31/23 09:12 PM ET
Thanks for the update HoakieCup!**
-- Stech
Jul 31, 2023 at 09:06 PM ET
Stech
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07/31/23 09:06 PM ET
I assume it benefits them to let it grow for a bit
-- goldendomer
Jul 31, 2023 at 12:06 PM ET
goldendomer
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07/31/23 12:06 PM ET
In the sun, the rain, the snow, love is lovely, let it grow**
-- VPI_1998
Jul 31, 2023 at 07:33 PM ET
VPI_1998
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07/31/23 07:33 PM ET
The GOR is a Big 12 & ACC Thing
-- WarHog38
Jul 31, 2023 at 02:31 PM ET
WarHog38
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07/31/23 02:31 PM ET
Yeah I think we are getting an announcement they are leaving in 4-8 yrs
-- hokieZ71
Jul 31, 2023 at 12:48 PM ET
hokieZ71
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07/31/23 12:48 PM ET
Why 4-8 years, when the GOR is for 13 years? TIA**
-- Stech
Jul 31, 2023 at 01:05 PM ET
Stech
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07/31/23 01:05 PM ET
Because they don’t want to stay until 2036 but they can’t leave now?**
-- hokieZ71
Jul 31, 2023 at 01:08 PM ET
hokieZ71
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07/31/23 01:08 PM ET
So you think the settlement would be less because there are less years
-- Stech
Jul 31, 2023 at 01:24 PM ET
Stech
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07/31/23 01:24 PM ET
Personally, it’s all about money to me
◄
-- hokieZ71
Jul 31, 2023 at 01:45 PM ET
hokieZ71
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07/31/23 01:45 PM ET
Apparently, the report is now that
-- vtka93
Jul 31, 2023 at 09:30 PM ET
vtka93
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07/31/23 09:30 PM ET
Not likely going to happen......
-- 2hhoop3
Jul 31, 2023 at 10:08 PM ET
2hhoop3
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07/31/23 10:08 PM ET
Your logic is spot on IMO, numbers are directionaly aligned as well
-- Vienna_Hokie
Jul 31, 2023 at 02:58 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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07/31/23 02:58 PM ET
Very well thought out interesting post, thanks for the reply!**
-- Stech
Jul 31, 2023 at 02:33 PM ET
Stech
•
07/31/23 02:33 PM ET
I don't think they necessarily want out, they want a better deal
-- Vienna_Hokie
Jul 31, 2023 at 12:15 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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07/31/23 12:15 PM ET
Pretty sure us B12 trolls have zero effect on the outcomes. **
-- Big12 guy
Jul 31, 2023 at 01:51 PM ET
Big12 guy
•
07/31/23 01:51 PM ET
Logical reason #3: FSU is leaving The ACC.
-- 33laszlo99
Jul 31, 2023 at 12:57 PM ET
33laszlo99
•
07/31/23 12:57 PM ET
IF they made the decision.....
-- 2hhoop3
Jul 31, 2023 at 01:14 PM ET
2hhoop3
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07/31/23 01:14 PM ET
Hoop, I'm not stirring the pot. My opinion is contrary to the overwhelming
-- 33laszlo99
Jul 31, 2023 at 04:41 PM ET
33laszlo99
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07/31/23 04:41 PM ET
That was the point of my.......
-- 2hhoop3
Jul 31, 2023 at 05:54 PM ET
2hhoop3
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07/31/23 05:54 PM ET
I hope Yormack reads this post. **
-- Big12 guy
Jul 31, 2023 at 09:58 PM ET
Big12 guy
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07/31/23 09:58 PM ET
The last paragraph. Adding teams just to add them is nuts. The
-- Big12 guy
Aug 01, 2023 at 08:48 AM ET
Big12 guy
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08/01/23 08:48 AM ET
Thanks for your interest, but I will not be providing any spreadsheets,
-- 33laszlo99
Jul 31, 2023 at 07:51 PM ET
33laszlo99
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07/31/23 07:51 PM ET
Sankey/the SEC completely blew it when they let CBS slip away. Now they
-- reestuart
Jul 31, 2023 at 04:56 PM ET
reestuart
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07/31/23 04:56 PM ET
I think CBS just got outbid by ABC/ESPN. They were paying $55 million for
-- 33laszlo99
Jul 31, 2023 at 07:30 PM ET
33laszlo99
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07/31/23 07:30 PM ET
If the ACC had games a national audience cared about, there'd be spots
-- Vienna_Hokie
Jul 31, 2023 at 06:52 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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07/31/23 06:52 PM ET
The 12 would take Pitt tomorrow.
-- Big12 guy
Jul 31, 2023 at 07:20 PM ET
Big12 guy
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07/31/23 07:20 PM ET
That has been on my mind. If they can find a way to just pay exit fee now
-- HokieAl
Jul 31, 2023 at 01:10 PM ET
HokieAl
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07/31/23 01:10 PM ET
# 2 would be ironic, since supposedly the B12 shared their GOR language w/
-- Stech
Jul 31, 2023 at 12:33 PM ET
Stech
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07/31/23 12:33 PM ET
The B12 is not P2 in football, and never will be In addition,
-- Big12 guy
Jul 31, 2023 at 02:00 PM ET
Big12 guy
•
07/31/23 02:00 PM ET
I don't think there will be a program in the B12 that
-- Big12 guy
Jul 31, 2023 at 02:49 PM ET
Big12 guy
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07/31/23 02:49 PM ET
The strange thing that is happening is that with this consolidation of
-- VPI_1998
Jul 31, 2023 at 07:21 PM ET
VPI_1998
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07/31/23 07:21 PM ET
I disagree with this. Throughout history, there were teams that could
-- Big12 guy
Aug 01, 2023 at 10:06 AM ET
Big12 guy
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08/01/23 10:06 AM ET
It's my contention that football
-- Big12 guy
Aug 01, 2023 at 10:49 AM ET
Big12 guy
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08/01/23 10:49 AM ET
Exactly, had the B12 not knee jerked and added Cin/UCF/HOU...
-- Vienna_Hokie
Jul 31, 2023 at 12:49 PM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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07/31/23 12:49 PM ET
It would have to be after their BoT meeting at the earliest.
-- hokieZ71
Jul 31, 2023 at 11:30 AM ET
hokieZ71
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07/31/23 11:30 AM ET
That would definitely be important indicator day IMHO.**
-- Stech
Jul 31, 2023 at 12:34 PM ET
Stech
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07/31/23 12:34 PM ET
crickets. Just asked a FSU alum who is following this closely.**
-- HoakieCup
Jul 31, 2023 at 11:30 AM ET
HoakieCup
•
07/31/23 11:30 AM ET
I almost posted this directly to you since I have followed your post on FSU
-- Stech
Jul 31, 2023 at 12:42 PM ET
Stech
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07/31/23 12:42 PM ET
They are all waiting to see how the BOT meeting on Wednesday goes. Smoke
-- HoakieCup
Jul 31, 2023 at 12:56 PM ET
HoakieCup
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07/31/23 12:56 PM ET
you're assuming it's a rumor they want to debunk..
-- Vienna_Hokie
Jul 31, 2023 at 11:20 AM ET
Vienna_Hokie
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07/31/23 11:20 AM ET