All Hokie, All the Time. Period. Presented by First Bank & Trust Company

hokieZ71
Joined: 01/03/2007
Posts: 18,413
Likes: 9,738

Personally, it’s all about money to me

It’s going to cost them to leave. And it’s going to cost them to stay. They probably don’t have the money it takes to leave now. $120M penalty for leaving early. Add to that TV rights over 13 years equaling about $812.5M (using the B1G’s 2023-24 rate of about $62.5M per school through the entirety of the 2036 ACC GOR (even though it’s going above that $62.5M in the future so I’m cutting them some slack) and you are looking at a bill of roughly $932.5M. Now you could argue present value of future cash flows and all that but it’s a really big number. But settlements always happen. Texas and OU I think had to pay like $50M to the Big XII to leave one freaking year early. So I’d guess no less than $300M+ in a settlement with the ACC (unless the ACC leadership is just weak as they can be). Nobody has pockets that deep. But they also really can’t afford to stay very long if they want to keep up with their competition (Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Bama, etc…). They’re going to be at a deficit of at least $30-$50M per year for the next 13 years. That adds up to a similarly large number. Personally I’d get my high level donors on board (and FSU has to have a few deep pockets) with trying to fundraise and build a war chest over a period of a few years to attack a future settlement fee that might end up closer to $200M by 2030. At the same time I’d announce it as soon as your mind is set. The Big Ten has to be happy until 2030. But they have to also presently see the value in expanding again at in 2030 for their next deal. FSU has to be way at the top of their list. So announce it now. Try to freak out the rest of the ACC, or ESPN or the SEC or Big XII. Create instability if instability helps you meet your end goal.
Posted: 07/31/2023 at 01:45 PM ET
(In response to this post by Stech)

Thread Replies (61)

Full Thread →
So when does the FSU President come out and debunk this rumor?
Stech 07/31/23 11:09 AM ET
FSU insiders say Michael Alford FSU AD had a meeting this morning and
HoakieCup 07/31/23 07:39 PM ET
Why would ESPN renegotiate a contract so they can lose FSU to the BIG?
wwhokie1 07/31/23 10:22 PM ET
They wouldn't
vtka93 07/31/23 10:48 PM ET
And, I don't think FSU's plan will work either. Essentially, they are
HoakieCup 08/01/23 08:30 AM ET
Correct. on your assumption.**
HoakieCup 08/01/23 07:37 AM ET
Props on six edits. I respect the dedication to post quality**
HokieAl 07/31/23 09:12 PM ET
Thanks for the update HoakieCup!**
Stech 07/31/23 09:06 PM ET
I assume it benefits them to let it grow for a bit
goldendomer 07/31/23 12:06 PM ET
…let I blossom. let it flow**
chumley 07/31/23 06:23 PM ET
In the sun, the rain, the snow, love is lovely, let it grow**
VPI_1998 07/31/23 07:33 PM ET
I believe
MrFantastic! 07/31/23 03:17 PM ET
The GOR is a Big 12 & ACC Thing
WarHog38 07/31/23 02:31 PM ET
Yeah I think we are getting an announcement they are leaving in 4-8 yrs
hokieZ71 07/31/23 12:48 PM ET
Why 4-8 years, when the GOR is for 13 years? TIA**
Stech 07/31/23 01:05 PM ET
Because they don’t want to stay until 2036 but they can’t leave now?**
hokieZ71 07/31/23 01:08 PM ET
So you think the settlement would be less because there are less years
Stech 07/31/23 01:24 PM ET
Personally, it’s all about money to me
hokieZ71 07/31/23 01:45 PM ET
Apparently, the report is now that
vtka93 07/31/23 09:30 PM ET
Not likely going to happen......
2hhoop3 07/31/23 10:08 PM ET
Oh I agree completely
vtka93 07/31/23 11:12 PM ET
Are your friends......
2hhoop3 07/31/23 11:32 PM ET
Your logic is spot on IMO, numbers are directionaly aligned as well
Vienna_Hokie 07/31/23 02:58 PM ET
Very well thought out interesting post, thanks for the reply!**
Stech 07/31/23 02:33 PM ET
I don't think they necessarily want out, they want a better deal
Vienna_Hokie 07/31/23 12:15 PM ET
#2 doesn't seem logical to me
vtka93 07/31/23 09:48 PM ET
Pretty sure us B12 trolls have zero effect on the outcomes. **
Big12 guy 07/31/23 01:51 PM ET
Logical reason #3: FSU is leaving The ACC.
33laszlo99 07/31/23 12:57 PM ET
IF they made the decision.....
2hhoop3 07/31/23 01:14 PM ET
Hoop, I'm not stirring the pot. My opinion is contrary to the overwhelming
33laszlo99 07/31/23 04:41 PM ET
Blow to the SEC
WarHog38 07/31/23 06:21 PM ET
That was the point of my.......
2hhoop3 07/31/23 05:54 PM ET
I hope Yormack reads this post. **
Big12 guy 07/31/23 09:58 PM ET
What do you believe.....
2hhoop3 07/31/23 11:06 PM ET
The last paragraph. Adding teams just to add them is nuts. The
Big12 guy 08/01/23 08:48 AM ET
Thanks for your interest, but I will not be providing any spreadsheets,
33laszlo99 07/31/23 07:51 PM ET
Spit balling.....
2hhoop3 07/31/23 07:56 PM ET
Sankey/the SEC completely blew it when they let CBS slip away. Now they
reestuart 07/31/23 04:56 PM ET
I think CBS just got outbid by ABC/ESPN. They were paying $55 million for
33laszlo99 07/31/23 07:30 PM ET
If the ACC had games a national audience cared about, there'd be spots
Vienna_Hokie 07/31/23 06:52 PM ET
The 12 would take Pitt tomorrow.
Big12 guy 07/31/23 07:20 PM ET
Did Sankey and the SEC.......
2hhoop3 07/31/23 06:06 PM ET
That has been on my mind. If they can find a way to just pay exit fee now
HokieAl 07/31/23 01:10 PM ET
# 2 would be ironic, since supposedly the B12 shared their GOR language w/
Stech 07/31/23 12:33 PM ET
A combination of......
2hhoop3 07/31/23 12:21 PM ET
The B12 is not P2 in football, and never will be In addition,
Big12 guy 07/31/23 02:00 PM ET
Nobody.....
2hhoop3 07/31/23 02:18 PM ET
I don't think there will be a program in the B12 that
Big12 guy 07/31/23 02:49 PM ET
The strange thing that is happening is that with this consolidation of
VPI_1998 07/31/23 07:21 PM ET
I disagree with this. Throughout history, there were teams that could
Big12 guy 08/01/23 10:06 AM ET
The problem with your.....
2hhoop3 08/01/23 10:36 AM ET
It's my contention that football
Big12 guy 08/01/23 10:49 AM ET
The issue is....
2hhoop3 08/01/23 11:13 AM ET
Exactly, had the B12 not knee jerked and added Cin/UCF/HOU...
Vienna_Hokie 07/31/23 12:49 PM ET
Good question to ask.**
Stech 07/31/23 12:43 PM ET
It would have to be after their BoT meeting at the earliest.
hokieZ71 07/31/23 11:30 AM ET
That would definitely be important indicator day IMHO.**
Stech 07/31/23 12:34 PM ET
crickets. Just asked a FSU alum who is following this closely.**
HoakieCup 07/31/23 11:30 AM ET
I almost posted this directly to you since I have followed your post on FSU
Stech 07/31/23 12:42 PM ET
They are all waiting to see how the BOT meeting on Wednesday goes. Smoke
HoakieCup 07/31/23 12:56 PM ET
Makes sense.**
Stech 07/31/23 01:01 PM ET
you're assuming it's a rumor they want to debunk..
Vienna_Hokie 07/31/23 11:20 AM ET