All Hokie, All the Time. Period. Presented by First Bank & Trust Company

GreenvilleVT
Joined: 08/31/2007
Posts: 18,693
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There is really only one thing to know and understand about crypto

In my opinion. Not one crypto, including BTC, has one penny of fundamental value. And in 40 years of working in the industry I know at least one thing for certain. All assets eventually trade at their fundamental value. Every single one. As long as someone else is willing to buy your BTC at a price above your “value” things will be all right. But let’s be clear - it is not a currency and never will be. The US dollar is and will likely remain the most dominant currency in the world except for those in criminal enterprises and many of them use the dollar too except for the transactions they need to hide. Cryptos rise often correlates with global strife and sanctions. That’s not an attractive thing for most long term investment. The attributes I’ve heard over the years on crypto always seem to change. For a while it was the traceability and security. Then everyone started stealing it. Then it was an inflation hedge. But that failed miserably in 2022 and 2023. Now it’s a bet against the US dollar and the Fed. Good thing for Russia/ukraine, and middle eastern strife last year to fuel the rally I guess. Cryptos fun and can lead to some great Reddit banter that burns hours on the day. So did GameStop. Early last year miners were getting out of the biz because they couldn’t afford their power bill. Now it’s golden paths of bull crypto again. The recent advent of crypto etfs was supposed to fuel a crypto rally. However most fell 20% within a week. So the bull arguments never seem to rationalize. I don’t like investments you can’t make rationale cases for. I’m not depending on folks evading Russian or Iranian sanctions to bolster my investment thesis. Owning things without any tangible value that go up in price can be exhilarating. But buying something whose only value is driven by criminal use, a bet against the US dollar and an asset with little ownership transparency will likely be a painful lesson for most. I could be wrong about buying assets without fundamental value but I’d rather be wrong and miss the upside in a world of many other alternative investments than end up in a dumpster fire. There’s just too many other options that have assets and compounding cash flow in their businesses. I’m sure there will be folks who make money on crypto. And they’ll celebrate their success by telling everyone they know at dinner parties, the bar and on chat rooms. But they always go remarkably quiet when things go bad. You never hear about the losses. In my own opinion there are a great deal many other options to invest in digital payments, blockchain, and even actual inflation hedges by buying companies with actual compounding cash flows and assets. If and when the music ever stops they’ll retain at least their tangible values.
Posted: 02/23/2024 at 08:35 AM ET
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)

Thread Replies (60)

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I've been having fun watching Nvidia's stock price.
Will StewartAdmin 02/22/24 10:16 AM ET
Yikes! not paying attention here.**
`lag 02/22/24 07:08 PM ET
That stock has long legs, this is no bubble.
HokieJay 02/22/24 02:59 PM ET
#privileged
banishedtothelounge 02/22/24 01:11 PM ET
sell it all go to Vegas. put in all on Black. double your money, walk out.**
VT Pez4Life 02/22/24 01:10 PM ET
It will definitely come up green 0....**
UTPr0sim 02/22/24 04:04 PM ET
I started as ServiceNow in October of 2022 and we have had an AI increase
turkeywinghokie 02/22/24 12:31 PM ET
how is that as a place to work? I like the CEO with the shades**
MrBayAreaHokie 02/22/24 02:57 PM ET
I have been very happy. McDermott is rock solid- he wears shades for a
turkeywinghokie 02/22/24 03:20 PM ET
Wow. A million….thats a lot of cover letters 😀🤡**
MrBayAreaHokie 02/22/24 03:42 PM ET
Well Nvidea is overpriced, but supply and demand are a thing! They do
UTPr0sim 02/22/24 12:30 PM ET
It's not overpriced.**
HokieJay 02/22/24 02:59 PM ET
Data: Average P/E for tech stocks: 45 Nvidia: 103.35 That defines
UTPr0sim 02/22/24 03:47 PM ET
If the E grows three hundred percent a year the P will run ahead. **
GreenvilleVT 02/22/24 08:48 PM ET
Congrats on your success. Tech stocks overpriced. Not nVidia.
HokieJay 02/22/24 04:23 PM ET
Like all of investing. Lets come back in a year and see.
UTPr0sim 02/22/24 05:29 PM ET
Heck, lets talk every month. There is money to be made now.
HokieJay 02/23/24 01:38 PM ET
They went from $1B in profit per quarter to > $12B in a year. **
MrBayAreaHokie 02/22/24 12:45 PM ET
Hard to value that. **
GreenvilleVT 02/22/24 01:52 PM ET
How much will they benefit from the chips act?
Vtskier1 02/22/24 01:47 PM ET
Not much benefit. TSMC is their fab.**
HokieJay 02/22/24 03:00 PM ET
The P/E is certainly high, but their revenues are exploding
turkeywinghokie 02/22/24 12:34 PM ET
A forward P/E of 30 with a 70% growth rate is acceptable.
HokieJay 02/22/24 03:10 PM ET
I love my guy, except he's allergic to mohair.
Tank 02/22/24 12:23 PM ET
Here's a new segment for you...**
NokieHokie 02/22/24 11:30 AM ET
index funds are pretty bad right now imho
MrBayAreaHokie 02/22/24 11:23 AM ET
Betting against us governments vary rarely works.
GreenvilleVT 02/22/24 08:54 PM ET
Your post shows you don't understand BTC
MrBayAreaHokie 02/22/24 10:13 PM ET
There is really only one thing to know and understand about crypto
GreenvilleVT 02/23/24 08:35 AM ET
You just don’t get it
MrBayAreaHokie 02/23/24 09:24 AM ET
Ah here we go. The bit coiner lecture
GreenvilleVT 02/23/24 10:58 AM ET
The Mag 7 is now the Mag 4 or 5.
HokieJay 02/22/24 03:13 PM ET
Agry, got out of tesla
MrBayAreaHokie 02/22/24 03:50 PM ET
The Oracle of Omaha disagrees with you.**
Hokebury 02/22/24 02:13 PM ET
does he buy them?
MrBayAreaHokie 02/22/24 02:57 PM ET
But he also said when he’s gone the money he leaves for his wife will be in
Hokebury 02/22/24 05:56 PM ET
maybe he feels she isn't sophisticated with investing
MrBayAreaHokie 02/22/24 10:15 PM ET
My point is that you said index funds are pretty bad, and I was sharing
Hokebury 02/23/24 12:28 PM ET
you are wildly oversimplifying what i said
MrBayAreaHokie 02/23/24 12:44 PM ET
You fundamentally misunderstood my post. Not sure why you need to insult
Hokebury 02/23/24 12:55 PM ET
sorry, let's drop it...lots of misunderstanding and didn't mean to insult u**
MrBayAreaHokie 02/23/24 02:18 PM ET
What tool did you use to create the video?**
Will StewartAdmin 02/22/24 11:35 AM ET
Invideo...see link
MrBayAreaHokie 02/22/24 12:32 PM ET
You probably know this . . . Nvidia's value is AI related.
RichwebHokie 02/22/24 11:08 AM ET
I have a video card with their chips...lol
EDGEMAN 02/22/24 11:32 AM ET
AI cools....or becomes self aware and takes over? ;-)**
vthokieq 02/22/24 11:31 AM ET
I got a Nigerian prince taking care of things. I'm set**
HokieDan95 02/22/24 11:00 AM ET
I thought I was a great tech investor back in the 90s when everything...
EDGEMAN 02/22/24 10:49 AM ET
Good for you. Bulls and bears win and pigs get slaughtered**
Va AandM 02/22/24 10:37 AM ET
My 20 year old daughter is up 1200% with her long term holding in invidia
GreenvilleVT 02/22/24 10:30 AM ET
Craps is fun when the dice are favorable **
Vtskier1 02/22/24 10:30 AM ET
All good moves. The problem is when you believe you can’t be wrong**
Hokie1992 02/22/24 10:29 AM ET
I don't have that problem, haha.**
Will StewartAdmin 02/22/24 10:36 AM ET
Yea someone asked me what I thought about the google ipo which was a Dutch
Vtskier1 02/22/24 11:04 AM ET
I suck at swing trading so don't listen to me, but...
MP4VT2004 02/22/24 10:25 AM ET
U "role your dices and take your chances" good luck***
greybeard hokie 02/22/24 10:21 AM ET
Here's a story ....
Will StewartAdmin 02/22/24 10:35 AM ET
Whatever you do, don't buy the stocks that Jim Cramer recommends...
EDGEMAN 02/22/24 10:52 AM ET
I don't pay any attention to him. I ignore frantic screamers.**
Will StewartAdmin 02/22/24 10:57 AM ET
That's pretty good life advice for almost anything, not just investing
Tafkam Hokie 02/22/24 11:40 AM ET
He's a carnival barker and also wrong a lot.**
NokieHokie 02/22/24 12:05 PM ET