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reconhokie
Joined: 08/21/2012
Posts: 13,150
Likes: 13,892
reconhokie
Lifetime

You answered your own question in the first paragraph. Their new commander

is using that strategy right now, and it’s working. The second paragraph is inaccurate. The one AT difference has been the Javelin. That was coupled by Russia’s own inept log train management- but neither equal Ukraine being either better armed or equipped. I’d recommend reading my previous posts on what I was seeing but TSL removed my analysis- either they felt it was biased, or someone started an argument or something and they erased it. I don’t know of any credible experts you are referring to but I’m always interested in reading whatever info or opinion is available, so definitely please link articles. My expectation is that any near term arrival of over 15 tanks is a pipe dream as of 2/1/23. When they are battle participants, please post that. The UKR will be lucky if they are slinging rounds by tax day. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see the required logistics allowing for it. US tanks? They’ll arrive in Europe too late next year to be used in the UKR. The only experts I know are Sean MacFarland and H. R. McMaster. I talked to Sean about it last year and he thought it would turn into a stalemate around / along the original lines, bc of the already previously existing build up in those areas. As of today, though, there are already reports of massing troops, so it’s only a matter of time before Russia starts up again. US forces went through, what 18 spring taliban offensives? (Little t, not necessarily Big T). Hope that helps.
Posted: 02/02/2023 at 12:49 PM ET
(In response to this post by Fatman)

Thread Replies (54)

Full Thread →
Hey Recon...how long before Russia overruns Ukraine this Spring?
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 10:29 AM ET
...he will chest-thump like MAD. And what says the West then?
bourbonstreet • 02/02/23 08:07 PM ET
I don't think they need to or want to overrun whole country. East + Crimea**
ColoVT82 • 02/02/23 03:16 PM ET
I think they want to cut off supplies from the West.
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 03:25 PM ET
They do, they will focus heavily on that.**
Nortazhokie • 02/02/23 05:56 PM ET
Dumb from the start**
ColoVT82 • 02/02/23 04:54 PM ET
If you believe some of the reports out now, Russia is getting ready to send
Nortazhokie • 02/02/23 01:36 PM ET
Yeah, he would. But the question might be if the troops are willing?
Late 80s Hokie • 02/02/23 04:48 PM ET
Read an article recently about the amount of convicts that Russia has freed
Nortazhokie • 02/02/23 05:54 PM ET
"...or they would be shot for refusing to fight"
No_Limit_Hokie • 02/02/23 06:50 PM ET
Join the Army or Stay in Jail**
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 06:06 PM ET
This is how they motivate recruits
FFXSTATIONHOKIE95 • 02/02/23 05:16 PM ET
^^This is the article I was referencing in my post above**
Nortazhokie • 02/02/23 05:57 PM ET
How do you figure they’ll be able to do that?
Fatman • 02/02/23 12:21 PM ET
As history guides, don't ever underestimate the desire for a free people
VTDC • 02/02/23 02:19 PM ET
You answered your own question in the first paragraph. Their new commander ◄
reconhokie • 02/02/23 12:49 PM ET
Thanks. .
Fatman • 02/02/23 03:47 PM ET
For whatever reason, they were censored on here
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 04:08 PM ET
I'm surprised *this* thread is still alive at 5:35pm EST.**
No_Limit_Hokie • 02/02/23 05:35 PM ET
I think it's done an excellent job of staying away from the hot points.
Late 80s Hokie • 02/02/23 06:12 PM ET
Recon, thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience as well**
No_Limit_Hokie • 02/02/23 02:44 PM ET
On a separate note, if you like military books, I would like to recommend
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 03:01 PM ET
Right now I’m seriously 100% tied up in US trafficking. I need all the
reconhokie • 02/02/23 04:15 PM ET
Thanks for the reading list! Boy, so much goes on in the World...
No_Limit_Hokie • 02/02/23 03:28 PM ET
Same question. It seems that the only "Russian Machine Never Breaks" plays
Late 80s Hokie • 02/02/23 12:46 PM ET
Wow I’ll have to go back and dig up whatever I thought back then and see
reconhokie • 02/02/23 12:58 PM ET
Heck...it's bigger than Ramadi..it's the next Syria
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 01:25 PM ET
Not ribbing at all. Pretty serious because I am hearing and seeing things
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 01:19 PM ET
I know- I was just saying that if I was commenting, I’d expecting only the
reconhokie • 02/02/23 04:38 PM ET
Would you say the media is not being truthful, or merely mistaken?**
No_Limit_Hokie • 02/02/23 01:49 PM ET
I/O - strategic and tactical Information Operations- just read what Putin i
reconhokie • 02/02/23 04:22 PM ET
I was on a flight from Istanbul to Amsterdam in early December with USA &
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 04:53 PM ET
More...pushing a narrative
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 02:02 PM ET
Yup it's an easy propaganda tool for those in the US....**
Brewing_Hokie • 02/02/23 05:05 PM ET
If Putin and Russia are actually winning, but the media says otherwise...
No_Limit_Hokie • 02/02/23 02:06 PM ET
....well we've known the media is trash for a long while now..**
Brewing_Hokie • 02/02/23 05:05 PM ET
No one is saying that they are winning right now
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 02:15 PM ET
Okay, thank you very much for your knowledge and experience here**
No_Limit_Hokie • 02/02/23 02:37 PM ET
Oh, I have absolutely no memory of what, if anything, you predicted. It's
Late 80s Hokie • 02/02/23 01:10 PM ET
I am pretty serious. I trained in Russia years and years ago
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 01:22 PM ET
Change in strategy
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 12:45 PM ET
Great points. What he said. Battle fatigue-
reconhokie • 02/02/23 01:01 PM ET
Kinda like a modern version of Dien Bien Phu w/o the terrain?**
Major Kong • 02/02/23 01:25 PM ET
What sucks is I’ve always wanted to study French Indochina and the rise of
reconhokie • 02/02/23 04:27 PM ET
Dien Bien Phu was the classic European arrogance and overlooking the...
Major Kong • 02/02/23 05:10 PM ET
C'mon...any paratrooper knows the Battle of Dien Bien Phu
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 04:55 PM ET
Red Storm Rising.**
Major Kong • 02/02/23 12:16 PM ET
That didn't work out too well for the Russians as I recall**
Burruss Writer • 02/02/23 01:02 PM ET
Ayup**
Major Kong • 02/02/23 01:27 PM ET
Great book. **
Fatman • 02/02/23 12:26 PM ET
After 2 tries, yes. For me it just took an uncharacteristically long time t
reconhokie • 02/02/23 04:32 PM ET
Kinda like marrying a stripper and not getting sex**
CrystalCoveHokie • 02/02/23 11:10 AM ET
Are they planning to roll 1,000 T-34s into Ukraine in a mass attack?
EDGEMAN • 02/02/23 10:36 AM ET
They need to keep the tanks out of the urban areas
AirborneHokie96 • 02/02/23 10:51 AM ET
Ukraine should take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only
Brown Water • 02/02/23 10:48 AM ET