thebluelot

Cal Poly comes to Morgantown. Game link. ** Edited by thebluelot at 6/2/2026, 1:38:10 AM ** Edited by thebluelot at 6/2/2026, 8:39:33 AM

That's really unfortunate that you think you have the right to assign me homework but when I give it back you believe you're above the repercussion of the same. Stech, you and I are above it. If you give me data, I will accept it. If I give you data, I don't really care if you accept it. I'll give you a strike here but I really don't appreciate the hissy fit. The lack of promise on your (or my word) word is something you're going to have work through. It's okay if you don't take this on salt but I don't really have to give a rat's ass. Take the strike or learn how to rebut with actual data rather than demanding data from the opposite position. You're the one challenging in this situation. You have to prove me wrong, not I you. Do you understand? ** Edited by thebluelot at 6/1/2026, 11:43:11 PM ** Edited by thebluelot at 6/1/2026, 11:44:35 PM

You can source every piece of material and give every fact that proves your position flawlessly and he'll just resort to name-calling and never make a real challenging argument. I'm not sure what's up with the Stech though, typically he's pretty reasonable. Mem Day Weekend traffic maybe? The pro rata part of the contract (offered only up to 4 teams if they were P5) I mentioned can be found on every corner of the internet (plus the obvious timeline of the deal being struck when the 4 corner schools where still in the PacXII). However, these people want me to keep 15 years worth of conference realignment and media deal news bookmarked in my browser, apparently. They never offer to disprove my points with their own proof. You send them the data and they just ignore it. "Can I get a source" on most boards is never a real attempt at genuine discourse but instead a hail mary attempt to end a founded position they dislike. They never rebut when I spend the time to get the data or source they're asking. I thought my attempt to accommodate Stech was overly generous but he didn't take it that way.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/15c2m4n/williams_bi... This is a thread (I know I know, reddit lol) relating the what I'm talking about, not so much proof. If you google around I'm sure you'll find a better source but I'm plowing away at my desk at the moment and sorry but I don't keep 15 years worth of conference realignment and media sources saved in my browser. Basically the nuts of what I'm saying is the average payout per team value is based on the mean value of the original 12 schools and the 4 corner schools are getting a pro rata share based on those 12 teams, not an average of the 16. Also the deal was undercut to beat the PacXII to market which was (probably) a less than perfect deal, however, in hindsight I'd argue that it was a great move by Yormark.

They received pro-rata shares based on the media deal post addition Cincinatti, BYU, UCF, and Houston. Given the large advantage the BigXII has in television ratings over the ACC and TV deal renegotiation coming up for the BigXII we can all draw the conclusion that the next BigXII deal will exceed the ACC's deal. However, the latter point is based on static trends and we don't really know which programs are going to be where in 2030/2031. Who knows it the ACC or the BigXII will even exist in 5 years.

They know they aren't getting BigXII invites if the BigXII ends up the survivor of this next round of realignment. If the SEC/Big10 only take 6-8 programs from the ACC then even schools like Pitt or NCSU are bubble teams to get into the BigXII so it's hard to see a path at all for BC and WF. After schools in the Louisville/VT tier land in their new homes (whether that's the SEC or the BigXII), the ACC will need to compete with the new look PacXII for best G conference. I would guess though at the end of this round of realignment the ACC lands between the PacXII and the AAC. BC/Cuse/WF/Stanford/Cal/SMU/USF/Memphis

Which is where all of Stanford's television ratings are sourced

doesn't mean you have to like it ** Edited by thebluelot at 12/27/2025, 9:05:52 PM

Title. ** Edited by thebluelot at 12/27/2025, 8:21:39 PM

Your arguments require sources, kid.

Pretending that all sports carry a unit measure rather than a weighted measure based on actual consumption is the issue with your position. The BigXII has better attendance and ratings in all the sports that make money. I genuinely don't understand your personal alliance with the ACC. WVU has had an open invite since Maryland left, 10 years after VT's invite. VT was rejected for 55 years and now they're ready to leave you for greener pastures and you believe you owe them something? VT is a stronger brand those about to cast you aside. VT is stronger than the ACC. ** Edited by thebluelot at 12/27/2025, 7:51:33 PM ** Edited by thebluelot at 12/27/2025, 8:19:20 PM

Seeing a school like ND as they're desperately trying to disassociate with the ACC and Stanford being a "top 25 athletic program" is a big blow to these figures. Anyone putting an athletic conference together right now is taking Oregon State, Boise and Fresno before Stanford. That's not even a hyperbolic response, as a Californian I would suggest Sacramento State before Stanford. The only people that consume Stanford games are Notre Dame fans. The ACC seems to be willingly falling on a double-edged sword.

USC could be interested in the ACC.

They're leaving though. ND won't be playing the ACC in 2030.

But here it is https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-fo... I'm not your professor, I'm not getting paid to hold your hand to prove that nobody watches the ACC. It's factual. From now on, because I'm the only one between the two of us that has shown evidence, my word will be taken at value and yours will be taken with speculation. Do you understand? Anything you say from this moment must have citation, otherwise, it means nothing to me. Do not refute me again without something to back it up. ** Edited by thebluelot at 11/8/2025, 11:09:21 PM

It's literarily just Nielsen television ratings for ****s sake. It's not a discussion or an argument. It's factual.

I'm aware of the scheduling agreement. Next year looks like a bad slate for the ACC. I assume ND will move their scheduling agreement to another conference after the top several ACC teams leave.

Looks like they'll be moving on soon. Bad news for the ACC.

Edit: Read this with a positive tone. I'm trying to be constructive here and not condescending. There's a reason the ACC is adding a 9th conference game and received zero compensation. The SEC added a 9th game and are getting bank. The BigXII had 3 million more views last year than the ACC. Medium ran a story about TV viewership last year (it was just an accumulation of tv ratings), maybe you should read it. The BigXII having better tv ratings than the ACC this season is factual. You're more than welcome to look it up and provide me evidence of the contrary. I assume College Gameday in Lubbock this week is going to wrap up that argument, cleanly. My understanding is that the ACC is bottom heavy. More people watch the 12th place BigXII team than the 12th through 17th place inclusive ACC teams. I believe you're responding through hubris just as the PacXII teams did before their exit. I'll say this in response to your (perceived by me) hubris. More people watched Oregon State and Wazzu than about 8 current ACC members, and they were left behind. You won't find more than 5 power conference teams that gets less viewership numbers than the bottom 12 ACC teams Virginia Tech still has a strong brand and I mentioned that in my reply as I believe despite poor performance they're still SEC worthy, however, VT's brand is whittling away by playing schools like WF, BC, UNC, UVA, Cuse, and Duke. I'm not fighting you or telling you that VT is unworthy. VT is absolutely worth their weight and then some. I'm telling you that the ACC is unworthy. ** Edited by thebluelot at 11/7/2025, 11:51:18 PM

Not rooting for VT's demise here. VT was duped into joining a basketball conference that's no longer good at basketball. If the two leagues were merged, the ACC makes up 12 of the bottom 15 teams ratings. That's with ACC's propped up ratings from the 6 ND games. The only way VT remains in the ACC is if the Big10/SEC poach the BigXII before they poach UNC/UVA/Clemson/FSU. Otherwise, VT is SEC or BigXII bound.

From top to bottom the Nielsen ratings for the BigXII are cumulatively stronger than the ACC. Kansas vs UCF (a middling game with zero rival history) had better numbers than Virginia Tech and VT is one of the better draws in the ACC, even when they're bad. Nobody watches the bottom 10 ACC teams. It's a G5 league.

The reason the BigXII has better TV ratings than the ACC is because the worst rated BigXII game has twice the viewers of the 10th place ACC team. The floor is simply too high in the BigXII for the ACC to keep up. Measuring only games with 4+ million viewers is not a good representation of the mean and UNC has already lost it's luster, unfortunately.

The ACC already makes more dollars per view than the other P4 conferences. It's popular to say that the ACC has a bad media deal but the numbers show they're actually greatly overpaid.

But it will result in Louisville/VT/GT/plus whoever leaving for greener grass. The ACC will survive. It'll be Stanford/Cal/SMU/WF/NCSU/BC/CUSE/RICE/USF/UCONN/+whatever

But I'm not getting paid to run numbers. It's not a VT problem. VT has shown brand resilience. The issue is nobody watches the bottom 12 teams in the ACC. If the bottom of the ACC were stronger a Big12/ACC merger would've happened in the last couple years. More people watch KU/Baylor/TCU than Duke/WF/NCSt. Houston and Cincy are the bottom Big12 brands currently and they obliterate the bottom ACC programs. This is factual from an attendance and ratings numbers perspective. You have to remove brand dysmorphia/bias to see it. ACC stadiums have been half empty for a long time. The ACC isn't top-heavy, it's bottom-heavy.

There is a Big12 network, however, it's a part of ESPN+

With one less team. I believe Medium ran a story on it but it was just a reporting of Nielsen ratings. It'll be interesting to watch this year because Nielsen is more accurately representing both rural and streaming numbers and some believe it'll benefit the SEC/Big12 more than the Big10/ACC, however, will benefit all cfb. Much like political polling, rural America was under-represented in TV ratings. The latter part of my ramblings there is not factual but predictive. We'll see?

Invest more into their new ESPN app platform with the ESPN+ media (where the Big12 exists). Although that's just a guess...I haven't dug into Disneys books to see if the ACCN is profitable from ESPNs POV. It is the lowest rated conference and ACCN games don't do great numbers. ESPN is overpaying the ACC.

After the Louisville/VT/GT tier there is a pretty sharp dropoff in attendance and television ratings. Maybe in some years Pitt but they're a fair-weather fanbase. This is tangental to your point but the reason the BigXII is stronger is because the 14th BigXII brand is bigger than the 8th ACC brand. 12 of the bottom 15 programs in these two conferences are ACC teams. There isn't a lot of 'average'. I may have mentioned this to you previously but West Virginia just went through their worst 6 years in a half-century and they would be a top 5 ACC brand tomorrow. They aren't interested in joining of course but it's a better example of what an average P4 brand is in the current landscape.

Gotta jump ship before Pitt and NCState leave.

But a bad WVU team still rates better than a good Louisville team. SMU doesn't fit better in the ACC. The ACC had to settle for the leftovers after the Big12 grabbed the 4 corner schools.

title

Is if the SEC/Big10 come knocking for some combination of Kansas/WVU/OkSt/Texas Tech/Utah/ASU prior to poaching UNC+. That's possible but the ACC is currently the weakest with the poor tv ratings of the bottom dozen ACC teams. If UNC leaves then Louisville and VT are immediately darting for the Big12 if they can't break into the SEC. Lets say that you're assumption is correct that maybe the SEC stops at UNC/UVA or UNC/Duke. If that happens, FSU and Clemson will be first in line to join the Big12. The TV ratings and fan following is already superior. If the ACC loses the already waning basketball prowess, it's over.

playing in half empty ACC stadiums with poor tv ratings. Playing against WF Duke UNC UVA is destroying VT's brand power. Although credit to UNC for attempting to address their situation. Self infliction you point out but I also see VT as a victim of the environment.

Although if Arizona/ASU/Utah stick around for the long run and they really wanted Cal I think the BigXII would listen. I would put NCSU above Pitt and Syracuse. I know the rivalries aren't as great with old BigEast ties but NCSU is a more resilient brand through their down-periods. When Pitt and Syracuse are down the stadiums are ghost towns.

the schools will immediately receive their media rights with the exit fee. I could've misinterpreted something. The SEC contract runs until 2034 so if the Big10 doesn't move, maybe your 2030-2031 prediction is more accurate?

The Big10 Media deal runs to 2030 so they'll want teams in the conference before negotiation the ext/new deal. The window for renegotiating is more than likely 18-24 mo's prior. If an ACC team is trying to bounce, waiting out for an exit discount isn't significant enough to stick around. Especially for P2 bubble teams like VT or MIA. Consider waiting til' 2030 to bounce and then only getting a half share until 2041. Fiscally more savvy (in the long run) to leave now if the spot is available. Maryland is finally on the doorstep of receiving a full Big10 share after leaving the ACC over 10 years ago. Oregon has to wait until 2031. I would be surprised if all ACC teams are still in the conference at the start of the 2027 season. Just my thoughts....I'm sure there is an oversight or two.

Tulane, USF and UConn are great schools.

With Utah, Texas, Arizona, and Ohio State. Right? Is that how this works? I'm not trying to troll but I don't know if Alabama has the academics. ** Edited by thebluelot at 7/24/2025, 9:19:26 PM

After Clemson and FSU leave

Just like Utah, ASU, Oregon, Alabama, or Maryland won't be invited. They're unattainable.

BigXII teams aren't leaving on the eve of a lucrative tv deal to sign on with a conference that has 10 G5 quality football teams. VT should be working with UL to get into the BigXII or working with UL and WVU to get into the SEC. The ACC is death by arrogance in the same vein as the PacXII. These new conferences are based on TV ratings and attendance/atmosphere. The ACC places last by a long way. The new PacXII is closer to the ACC than the ACC is to the BigXII starting 2026.

Teams under VT don't have enough viewership to satisfy media partners. Cuse NCSt and Pitt may have a chance, but if the SEC/Big10 don't scoop up more than a few teams then everyone under VT is in trouble, which is why they should be worried. VT and Louisville will be fine regardless what goes down, but BY isn't executing an AQ model until this plays out.

Not until some of the top 8 ACC brands move over to the BigXII. Every ACC program with less viewership than VT should be concerned about Brett's words yesterday.

WVU would've been invited when Maryland left if they hadn't already signed the GOR to the BigXII Now there's no way WVU would join. 2025 they'll be playing in sold out stadiums with more viewership in all time zones and coming back home to host Utah and Colorado. As much as WVU fans want to play UL and VT annually, that's not enough to trade in Tempe, Tuscon, SLC/Provo, Stillwater, Lubbock, Ft. Worth for half empty stadiums in North Carolina and Virginia. The ACC has too many dead brands to pull in West Virginia.

Revenue gained from market size is less relevant than it's ever been. Nielsen also admitted earlier this year that they've been significantly undervaluing rural markets and have adjusted how they calculate ratings. Rural markets for nationally televised games are playing a larger part than in previous years. This is going to help the SEC and BigXII tremendously and the Big12 throttled the ACC in TV ratings last year even with 1 less team. Although to your market point, after Morgantown the largest WVU alumni cities are Pittsburgh, Charlotte, and Washington DC. There are a lot WVU fans in these cities consuming CFB/CBB. In some places at a clip that would put them 2nd or 3rd to their local universities. Southwestern VA is also shrinking, by the way. Which should concern you because that's VTech's immediate market. WVU's immediate market is Morgantown metro which is still growing. Marshall is more negatively affected by your points, not WVU. Northeastern WV is doing very well.

You have to combine Stanford and Cal to get the attendance and TV ratings that WVU brings to the table. WVU also adds more value to VTech, Cuse, Pitt, Louisville.