First off, the camera is not looking directly down the line from pitcher to plate. It's at an angle. Second, as you admitted, the ball was sweeping left to right. The ump doesn't call the pitch based on where it lands in the catcher's glove (as you seem to imply). He calls the pitch based on where it crosses the plate. It's impossible to know exactly where it's crossing the plate, but here's my best estimate. Again, remember that the camera angle is a bit off. I'd say it's a ball, but I feel like it's in the river. It's not a full plate-length off as your lines suggest.