What if the BIG and SEC are really done? If Oregon and Washington
can't make the grade for an invite, how many blue bloods are there left that can?
How many schools left are worth 80-100M a year to the networks? If the SEC or BIg expand, they have to be worth at least that much. Those conferences might be happy with what they have, and see how this works out.
They let the PAC disintegrate, they left the B12 a shell of its former self, do they even care what happens to the ACC?
Texas, OU, and USC are blue bloods, now, and historically. Washington has an argument, but Oregon has been a football brand for just over 20 years. (I'll let you guys discuss the ACC schools, because while I have an opinion, I'm here for the info and insight).
20 Replies
If the B1G and SEC are concerned about "blue bloods"...
they need to seriously remove all their schools who aren't. Goodbye Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and yes even Nebraska. And... South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and Arkansas. To be honest, even UCLA and Penn State haven't been impressive this century.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
All-14:
Alabama
LSU
Ohio State
Michigan
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
USC
Tennessee
Auburn
Clemson
Florida State
Miami
Notre Dame
That would last about a quarter of a year before they all started complaining about unfair competition, etc.
And the A&M’s, Nebraska’s, Oregon’s, Penn State’s, and Florida’s would still be begging to get in…
** Edited by Hardcore_Hokie at 8/3/2023, 7:51:25 PM
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
2y
table the top 60 programs in the country. Split them into FIVE, 12-team divisions. Division groupings are determined by a power index. For season one use the last 10 seasons win averages. The top 12 teams are in group A, 13 - 24 are in group B and so on, and so forth. Each division plays a round-Robbin schedule. You get one extra game to play whomever you want. The lowest two teams get relocated the the group below and the top 2 teams promoted. This would ONLY be done for football. All others sports simply schedule regionally. This way each tier or division is like vs like. Ohio State can’t get 8 or 9 free wins a year and the weaker teams get a chance to play similar competition. Revenue is split over all the tiers but there would be bonuses for wins, etc. We might start in tier 3 but we would have a chance to get to tier 1. It would make each season far more interesting.
(In response to this post by Hardcore_Hokie)
I'd hardly put Miami in the blue blood category if you are limiting it
to 14 teams. Some of those teams you left out put 100k+ into their stadiums on a Saturday. That's truly big time.
Miami has no ACC championships in 20 years of membership.
(In response to this post by Hardcore_Hokie)
2y
Substitute Penn State if you want, but 100k in a stadium does not define a premier blue blood school/brand.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
(In response to this post by Hardcore_Hokie)
I'd trade Penn State for Miami in the conference any day of the week.
(In response to this post by Hardcore_Hokie)
2y
(In response to this post by Hardcore_Hokie)
If UO and UW want to call the B1G's bluff, they should be talking to the
ACC. Or at least make the appearance that they are. The B1G obviously thinks they can keep UO and UW's heels cooling in the lobby. Pretty offensive if you ask me, but I digress. Anyhow, if UO and UW are threatening to spearhead a cohort of schools (let's say at least all the P12 North schools) to the ACC, that would get the B1G's attention. Because if the 1) the ACC GOR is bulletproof and 2) the most desirable expansion candidates in the West sign it, then the B1G would have to wait until the 2030s to have prime travel partners for USC and UCLA.
The twisted part of me wants to see this B1G current expansion plan to cherry pick just 2 schools off the West Coast, put into practice. I mean the part of having USC and UCLA play basically all their conference games 2 or 3 time zones away. I'd love to see them have no way out of this.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
the ACC GOR tomorrow, maybe that is what it would take to get FSU to sit down. Not that it doesn't make sense, but I'm not at all convinced that FSU has an invite to the BIG - or the SEC for that matter.
The networks have to get an ROI on their investment in the Big 10. I'm not convinced they will get that return. They have 3 teams this year that have a realistic chance of getting in the playoffs. 4 if you count USC. While I understand the viewership with the Big10, I'm not inclined to see how that changes with USC in the mix. The national audience will tune in when the playoffs are on the line - period. I don't care what conference you are in, the national audience wants relevant games, and Rutgers vs. Indiana doesn't do it for me.
I'll tune in to a Wake Forest game when the game determines who is in, or who wins the conference championship. Otherwise, I would never watch them (no offence Deacons, I'm a B12 guy). I'll tune into a VT game because of the atmosphere, but if there is another game on, ..... (unless a championship or rivalry is on the line). I'd watch WVU play VT no matter the records, but would NEVER watch a meaningless Purdue Maryland game.
The BIG may not give the networks the brass ring, and maybe, the ACC is in a better position than it seems today.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
H
hokieZ71
2y
If this is an investment then they could be fine breaking even for now and then get their returns in 2-3 years when the expanded playoffs start and any team in the Top 20 in November has legit playoff chances. Ratings will soar.
** Edited by hokieZ71 at 8/3/2023, 10:48:49 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
including the G5. The ACC and B12 will always be in the mix for sending 2 each to the playoffs. So ya, the BIG and SEC will get the viewers, but so will the ACC and B12. The interesting part will be the G5, and what the top teams in those conferences generate with the national audience.
We need the PAC to survive, as they could still be in the mix for two invites every year as well.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
2y
That's why I think the next move will be sudden, unexpected and big.
Few, if any, individual school brings enough. But follow this:
Draw a horizontal line rough between Atlanta and Columbia - push it south to Florida/Tallahassee if you want.
Draw a line from Atlanta roughly along the Blue Ridge until it is just north of DC. Draw a parallel line from Columbia toward the North-Northeast - draw last line between the top of these last two. That parallelogram includes the following:
Atlanta, Columbia, Greenville/Spartanburg, Charlotte, Greesboro/Winston Salem, Raleigh, Durham, Roanoke Richmond, 757, Nova. Not LA, Dallas or Chicago - and some portions are covered by UGA and USCe, but it is too big of an area for the P2 (their advertisers) to ignore.
One of the P2 bringing in just one or two of FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVa isn't going to bring all of that area - fans of NCSU, VT GT, WF, Duke aren't going to start watching those teams - and thus can't bring enough to the table.
If there is a large expansion such that that whole area is represented, then fans will get interested in other teams in that conference - but outside their area - that momentum could be a net gain.
I'm guessing a similar idea can be presented for Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State and the zona schools - but I don't know that area as well.
** Edited by RTFC at 8/3/2023, 6:06:38 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
McMurphy and Nicole A. tweets saying presidents gave commissioner go ahead to “figure out financials.” I read that as what the reduced share will be.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
2030. Then after 2030 they will get a full share. Cal and Stanford may come along for the ride too at reduced shares to fill in the geography and give the B1G control of the entire west coast market.
(In response to this post by Colonel Jessup)
The B1G might control the west coast market but the ACC...
still controls the....
(In response to this post by tarheelblue)
2y
The ACC has 3 properties that are worth more than Washington or Oregon in Clemson, FSU and Miami and one that is on par in UNC. However, those 3 that are worth more, are only worth more to the SEC because they create rivalries and interest that they do not create for the BIG (Only maybe Miami is an add for the BIG network because most of FL, especially the west coast is already saturated with BIG people because 90% of the residents are from Iowa/IL/Mich/Ohio.)
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
forever unless ND comes calling.
The SEC? with 8 conference games, we could very well see 2 undefeated SEC teams a year, and they are all but guaranteed 3 - 4 in the playoffs every year. Why would they want to bring on two to four teams? The NC and Virginia markets make logical sense, but I get the sense that they are done.
The PAC in collapsing, the B12, while rejuvenated, is not your grandfather's B12, and the ACC, mostly because of FSU and the Magnificent 7 is in turmoil. That gives the SEC a HUGE recruiting edge, like they needed more of an edge than they already enjoyed. The BIG has always been overrated (opinion), but they have the brads, markets, and the history. They too are all but guaranteed 3 - 4 playoff berths if the PAC dissolves.
I think the BIG and SEC are done, and the rest of us are on our own to figure things out.
Maybe all of the remaining P5 schools need to have a convention, pool their media money, and establish regional conferences or pods, and get some sense back into college football. It's a lot of content, form 4 conferences, and compete for the 6 auto's every year. There would be a LOT of leverage to negotiate.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
2y
in-place for a day or two.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)