Why Playoff expansion (and a new format) will fuel Big Ten expansion
By Matt Hayes
“We’re all chasing the wrong thing here. Conference expansion isn’t leading a paradigm shift in college football. Playoff expansion is. “The Playoff, at 12 teams, will be bigger than anything else in the sport,” an industry source told Saturday Tradition. “Bigger than the SEC, bigger than the Big Ten, bigger than anything anyone envisioned. What’s happening in those Playoff (format) meetings will change everything.”
. . .
“That’s why the next Playoff contract will be 12 at-large selections.”
. . .
“The new contract will likely use a “units” system, where conferences receive revenue based on how many of their teams participate.”
. . .
It’s simple math. The SEC’s new media rights deal with ESPN beginning in 2024 will generate $829 million annually. The addition of Texas and Oklahoma to the conference will push that number well over $900 million.The Big Ten’s new media rights deal beginning this season will, after Petitti deals with the unwieldy mess, be similar to the SEC’s deal. The Playoff contract will at least match those deals, and multiple industry sources say annual revenue could reach nearly $1.5 billion.
11 Replies
3y
auto's, I'll reevaluate my die hard fan status. I'm not interested in NFL light, and I'm not interested in a committee or polls determining who gets invited to the party.
If they do that, we will all become independent again, as why should Ohio State carry Indiana?
(In response to this post by WBGV)
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hokieZ71
3y
I personally feel in 2026, the auto bids will drop to 4 conference champs instead of 6. Changes like these are more glacial. But, I also feel in the long run, the P2 will take the whole thing for themselves. But they can't do it at 16 members each. Probably not even 20 each. Because the rest of college football will have enough semi-flagships and enough football viewers who will be turned off by the P2 separating from their home schools, alma maters and favorite teams, that ratings for the playoff will suffer. You're already seeing some Bama/UGA bloat drag down the ratings. Nobody wants to see those two teams all the time, except those two sets of fans, because they feel excluded, they don't have a shot. An expanded playoff gives more teams a shot on paper, but including them in the best leagues and giving them the resources to improve themselves will help keep them invested.
But if the SEC and B1G at 16 try to just take it all for themselves now, it won't work so well. Because the other leagues will have their own playoff and millions of people will be interested in that.
If Oregon is playing Clemson for the third straight NCAA Championship the day before Georgia is playing Ohio State for the third straight SEC/B1G playoff championship, ratings for all playoff games will suffer.
If a Florida State vs Washington NCAA semifinal is up against Michigan vs Wisconsin B1G Conference Final (P2 National Semifinal), TV ratings will suffer.
If Oklahoma State vs Miami in the NCAA playoff first round kicks off two hours before Tennessee vs LSU in the SEC opening round game, it's going to take away some eyeballs. Same with Baylor vs NC State going up against Iowa vs Penn State.
If VT, UVA, UNC and NCST aren't in either the SEC or B1G, that's a combined state about the size of Florida that will lose interest the longer they don't have a path to that major playoff.
The SEC and B1G will win all of these ratings contests. But millions of viewers will watch the NCAA games instead, because...that's their school, and they won't change allegiance.
(In response to this post by WBGV)
3y
Make money tied to number of teams and then stack the deck to get more teams selected.
With no auto bids there is no need for conf champ games. That just creates risk of a conf team dropping out of the playoff from a loss. Will be curious how they handle that.
** Edited by HokieAl at 5/31/2023, 5:54:19 PM
(In response to this post by WBGV)
3y
will continue to accumulate power. Impressive really.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
3y
Because they played a hard BIG schedule and only lost to other BIG teams. But 9-3 Wake played in the weak ACC and is one of the first two out.
Substitute any BIG or SEC school and get the same argument. ACC will only get some love if it is Clemson, FSU or Miami ( maybe unc or VT eventually).
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
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hokieZ71
3y
It'll be an 8-4 Mich State getting the nod over a 10-2 Wake team or a 10-2 NC State that will be the case. Then when the SEC only plays itself over 9 conference games, the B1G in 2 OOC matchups and an FCS team and the playoff expands to 16, you're talking about some 7-5 teams maybe getting in over 10-2 ACC teams. The committee is already setting precendent by not really dropping teams all that much when they lose to other highly rated teams.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
3y
and it's bringing in more money for the Sec and Big 10. Their teams are getting bias selections while they leave the Acc out. Another money grab to make the Acc more vulnerable, is my guess.
** Edited by HokiePail at 5/31/2023, 9:24:39 PM
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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EDGEMAN
3y
(In response to this post by HokiePail)
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EDGEMAN
3y
...next playoff contract. Basically they think they'll suck up all of the slots. At least now the P5 conferences get a seat in the playoff. This means that no independent, other than ND will ever get a bid, and the G5 are completely frozen out.
I see the B12 getting one bid, and the ACC getting one, and the other 10 will come from the P2.
(In response to this post by WBGV)
3y
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)