What if we have been thinking expansion too much? I have a theory
Yes the BIG and SEC will expand...assuming they can get it done without Congress blocking it.
But after that, who says the ACC and B12 have to expand or die? They will both definitely change, and definitely earn less money going forward, but they don't have to die. ESPN owns the ACC contract, ESPN and FOX split the B12 contract. So there is an opportunity to make a new P5 conference. And there is a lot of benefit to keeping the ACC and B12 alive (think jobs tied to those conferences and the events they put on).
Assumption #1: BIG poaches UNC and Georgia Tech. SEC poaches FSU, Clemson, Miami, and Colorado
Assumption #2: B12 and ACC can exist with just 9 teams each (round robin scheduling and still meets playoff criteria). If either one wanted to expand, the top three targets would be Tulane, Memphis, South Florida.
Assumption #3: Data clearly shows which schools have averaged the best viewership over time. If we take those top 10 teams to make a new conference, it could become the #3 earning conference immediately with the backing of ESPN and FOX.
Hypothetical 10 teams (based on actual viewership data) to form a new football conference.
VT
Pitt
Louisville
Iowa St
Kansas St
Oklahoma St
TCU
WVU
Utah
The other teams to be considered based on viewership data would be NC State, Syracuse, BYU.
There is clearly pushback against conferences getting too big, plus survival instincts will kick in and prevent any kind of merger between the B12 and ACC. So the logical next option is controlled shuffling to create something new while leaving minimal disruption behind. This would be especially true in the ACC where the remaining teams would be heavily academic and olympic sports/basketball focused.
** Edited by HokieAl at 7/28/2026, 11:43:43 PM
Posted: 07/28/2026 at 11:40 PM ET
Thread Replies (12)
What if we have been thinking expansion too much? I have a theory
◄
-- HokieAl
Jul 28, 2026 at 11:40 PM ET
HokieAl
•
07/28/26 11:40 PM ET
i feel everything is largely unpredictable right now
-- MrBayAreaHokie
Jul 29, 2026 at 02:53 PM ET
MrBayAreaHokie
•
07/29/26 02:53 PM ET
Yep a lot of unpredictable factors
-- HokieAl
Jul 29, 2026 at 04:20 PM ET
HokieAl
•
07/29/26 04:20 PM ET
Apparently, the anti expansion clause in PCSA is not a major sticking point
-- RandomAsianGuy
Jul 29, 2026 at 12:36 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
•
07/29/26 12:36 PM ET
That’s because it is not that strict. See my response above**
-- HokieAl
Jul 29, 2026 at 01:56 PM ET
HokieAl
•
07/29/26 01:56 PM ET
I agree that the little p2 does not have to have 14-20 teams.
-- VTCALS72
Jul 29, 2026 at 07:57 AM ET
VTCALS72
•
07/29/26 07:57 AM ET
I think we need to define what the package deal really means
-- HokieAl
Jul 29, 2026 at 08:44 AM ET
HokieAl
•
07/29/26 08:44 AM ET
The key may be related to local economies, but
-- Pylons
Jul 29, 2026 at 10:27 AM ET
Pylons
•
07/29/26 10:27 AM ET
I think the VA pressure back in ACC expansion was unique
-- HokieAl
Jul 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM ET
HokieAl
•
07/29/26 11:30 AM ET
And had they not gotten involved we likely are in the SEC already**
-- HartwoodHokie
Jul 29, 2026 at 12:04 PM ET
HartwoodHokie
•
07/29/26 12:04 PM ET
And if the politicians wouldn't stand in the way, there's no package deal
-- Pylons
Jul 29, 2026 at 11:37 AM ET
Pylons
•
07/29/26 11:37 AM ET
In reality Virginia has 2 flagship schools
-- VTCALS72
Jul 30, 2026 at 07:36 AM ET
VTCALS72
•
07/30/26 07:36 AM ET
Well, I'd say in reality there can really be only one flagship
-- Pylons
Jul 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM ET
Pylons
•
07/30/26 11:30 AM ET