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Conference Realignment Board
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Joined: 07/16/2012
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TDVick
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I'm not sure if your and THB points are different, but consider that ESPN

has the option to "not renew" ... I think after 2026. This was widely reported. The $572 number was based on the GoR with an end date of 2036. That seems to be way less likely to me. FSU's value has probably risen quite a bit since the amount assumed original negotiation but the question is, "what has happened to the ACC's in general?" I think I has probably dropped. Even if it hasn't, certain attractive elements in it have gone up (assume FSU, UNC and Clemson). Aren't all the ACC teams being valued at the same amount by this metric? I think they are. Even if you take the worst case of 13 years and $572, that is $44 million a year. Isn't FSU worth $90 million plus to other conference? Probably much higher, since $90 million is the AVERAGE B10 payout and FSU would be one of its top 3 brands. Assume for a minute that if FSU left. FSU would keep $12 million more a year by leaving ($90-$44), $56 v $44, and the B10 would gladly compensate them for the $44. It seems to me that the problem IS NOT that FSU is leaving, but that it MIGHT LEAVE to the B10, which hasn't sold it's rights to ESPN. It seems like $44 million is a SMALL price for FSU to pay to the ACC. ESPN on the other hand would try to stick them up for more money. I think this is what you mean by "floor?" It seems that ESPN wouldn't really care if top ACC teams depart, so long as they don't go to the B10. A team that goes B12 wouldn't be worth keeping anyhow. If ESPN can flip UNC (and maybe UVA, VT and NCSU) to the SEC, they will get more revenue from those brands. The question is, "Does the SEC want the non-UNC teams?" FSU seems really angry with ESPN. If ever there seemed to be an anti-trust issue, this seems to be it. ESPN and Fox have a duopoly on CFB rights purchases. Combine this this with ESPN's option to not renew and this looks really abusive. DeSantis hates Disney and the State of Florida has a really good case to go after ESPN/Disney really hard on this one. Plus there seem to be some skeletons in the closet, agency issues or extreme sloppiness going back to the original negotiations. If FSU can eventually jump for $572 or less, this will be a huge win for them. You can see why they are being so aggressive. The amount above $572 that FSU pays will show how strong a case that ESPN has. The paradox is... if ESPN doesn't renew the ACC in 2026, then the amount they can extract from FSU dwindles. ** Edited by TDVick at 2/17/2024, 1:04:24 PM
Posted: 02/17/2024 at 12:57 PM ET
(In response to this post by SMU Pony)

Thread Replies (130)

Full Thread →
This FSU news looks like the beginning of a grand bargain.
TDVick • 02/17/24 05:02 AM ET
As a fan of VT and college football, what does all of this mean to me
astrohokiebob • 02/19/24 08:16 AM ET
Your Apple TV will be just fine. You don't need a smart TV
EDGEMAN • 02/19/24 10:12 AM ET
As a fan of VT, I just don't have any idea.
VTCALS72 • 02/19/24 09:18 AM ET
My opinion on your quesitons
Vienna_Hokie • 02/19/24 08:32 AM ET
Thanks VH... ah-ha the gambling angle - never thought I would see this**
astrohokiebob • 02/19/24 08:43 AM ET
The ultimate irony in sports betting is a sports book IN the Red's ballpark
Vienna_Hokie • 02/19/24 09:14 AM ET
Charlie Hustle was the team manager and he called his bookie on the
33laszlo99 • 02/19/24 02:50 PM ET
so now he could just walk up to the sports book in the stadium**
Vienna_Hokie • 02/19/24 05:04 PM ET
If we find out the value of just FSU, then it opens the door
HokieAl • 02/18/24 10:17 AM ET
Like stocks, valuing a business (FSU in this case) is mostly a crap shoot.
LowIQHOO • 02/17/24 06:00 PM ET
FSU already valued their media rights owned by the ACC at $572 Million
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 11:50 AM ET
When Maryland left the ACC I think they ended up paying about 60% of the
wwhokie1 • 02/17/24 07:16 PM ET
What Maryland and the ACC settled for was just the amount of money that the
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 07:22 PM ET
The reason for that settlement.....
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 08:16 PM ET
their suit also claims the major component of that 572 is below market**
daveinop • 02/17/24 12:43 PM ET
both sides will settle in the $250-$350 range i think**
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 12:42 PM ET
I’m guessing 60% of exit fee of $130 million - $78 million**
WBGV • 02/17/24 04:19 PM ET
Will be much more if a settlement is reached **
Hokie83 • 02/17/24 05:24 PM ET
I believe that the GOR is going to be invalidated first and that will then
WBGV • 02/18/24 08:53 AM ET
Then the ACC will backfill with WVU, Cincy, and UCF
mrcaniac • 02/19/24 12:57 AM ET
All GOR’s are going to be invalidated no matter the Conference? Big 12 too?
Stech • 02/19/24 12:18 AM ET
It depends on the circumstances surrounding the signing of the GOR.
WBGV • 02/19/24 10:49 AM ET
LOL the poor little trustees at FSU got bullied by the big bad ACC execs...
SMU Pony • 02/19/24 08:55 PM ET
They signed it to get more money and a Conference Network, they got both.
Stech • 02/19/24 12:33 PM ET
There no “ACC hate” or “Big 12 hate” or any conference hate whatsoever.
WBGV • 02/19/24 02:15 PM ET
I’m not the moderator, just a long time poster here, who has seen the exact
Stech • 02/19/24 04:12 PM ET
My apologies for assuming that you were the moderator.
WBGV • 02/20/24 04:22 PM ET
Right!! The GOR is obviously rock solid since it hasn't been broken on
ancient alien 2018 • 02/18/24 09:06 PM ET
GOR seems pretty solid so far:)**
Hokie83 • 02/18/24 08:27 PM ET
Since the ACC GOR is essentially the same as the other conferences,
VTCALS72 • 02/18/24 12:36 PM ET
We have endless cases of exit fees being "enforced." The amount can be
33laszlo99 • 02/18/24 11:22 AM ET
Only if the ACC and every other league thinks the GOR is a losing deal
VTCALS72 • 02/18/24 12:38 PM ET
Yeah, his estimate is not anywhere near reality from what I hear, unless
Stech • 02/17/24 07:36 PM ET
The other problem is that FSU set that as the FLOOR, not the ceiling...
SMU Pony • 02/17/24 11:57 AM ET
I'm not sure if your and THB points are different, but consider that ESPN ◄
TDVick • 02/17/24 12:57 PM ET
This is where I part ways with some on this board. The ACC is not
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 12:21 PM ET
there are at least 7 members that won't be too upset if ESPN doesn't renew
daveinop • 02/17/24 01:44 PM ET
I'm not sure why because the GOR continues until 2037.
HOO86 • 02/17/24 02:36 PM ET
I don't see them not renewing either
daveinop • 02/18/24 01:49 PM ET
It may very well be a good deal for ESPN. At the same time, I do wonder if
VTHokie2000 • 02/18/24 05:49 PM ET
It looks to me like the ACC is being somewhat agreeable with FSU, because
TDVick • 02/17/24 01:16 PM ET
You're assuming the GOR dies if the ESPN contract dies
SMU Pony • 02/17/24 12:36 PM ET
You are correct that I'm assuming the two are linked. Without a media deal,
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 01:11 PM ET
It's not about what FSU would make in the ACC, it's about what they make
wwhokie1 • 02/17/24 06:56 PM ET
Good luck with that if this goes to trial. **
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 11:44 PM ET
Technically, I think the benefit would go to ESPN
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 07:16 PM ET
My understanding is that it would not be based on the ACC's contract.
wwhokie1 • 02/17/24 07:20 PM ET
As I said, FSU granted those rights to the ACC who then sold them to ESPN
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 07:25 PM ET
They are not linked.
HOO86 • 02/17/24 02:54 PM ET
FSU granted their media rights to the ACC, not ESPN...
SMU Pony • 02/17/24 01:37 PM ET
No agenda here, I just find the realignment issue very interesting
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 02:02 PM ET
Why doesn't the GOR expire in 2027?
SMU Pony • 02/17/24 02:46 PM ET
And they probably should have, but they didn't.
wwhokie1 • 02/17/24 07:08 PM ET
You can assume away......
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 01:30 PM ET
Having a court ruling is too risky in my opinion, and is why
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 02:10 PM ET
All depends how and what......
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 02:19 PM ET
The networks and the conferences need the GOR's for the
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 03:21 PM ET
Thank you......
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 03:35 PM ET
The ACC can negotiate a settlement now with FSU, and get paid now, or
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 03:40 PM ET
Nothing was ever said......
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 03:45 PM ET
They risk the GOR being nullified - when this goes to trial. They have
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 03:48 PM ET
I have already told......
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 03:59 PM ET
The ACC's very existence, as you state, could be at risk. The ACC, has a
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 04:19 PM ET
Tarheel Blue......
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 04:26 PM ET
I just happen to disagree with you. So far, all of your explaining
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 05:24 PM ET
That's fine......
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 05:40 PM ET
Well, unless a school being added to a conference brings more money
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 06:09 PM ET
If the top .........
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 06:26 PM ET
I don't see the top 7 ACC schools bringing more than 60-80M a year
Big12 guy • 02/19/24 11:18 AM ET
It doesn't matter at that point. The ACC needs to stay intact. **
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 11:45 PM ET
UNC fixed their empty seat problem by reducing seating capacity.
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 06:12 PM ET
I certainly want it to go to trial.
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 03:54 PM ET
FSU is bound by the GOR if a judge tells them they are.
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 01:27 PM ET
Isn’t that one of FSU’s claims that they aren’t guaranteed anything after
WBGV • 02/18/24 08:05 AM ET
Do you think this will actually go to trial? I would be shocked
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 03:35 PM ET
Yes I think there is a very good chance that this actually goes to trial.
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 03:46 PM ET
But a judge is not going to tell them that - this will not go to
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 01:32 PM ET
It has already gone to court.**
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 01:36 PM ET
I guess I should have said that it will not go to trial or be litigated ;-)**
133193Hokie • 02/18/24 08:20 AM ET
I do not see why.....
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 12:36 PM ET
“do not see why… not risk litigating...”
33laszlo99 • 02/17/24 03:33 PM ET
If the settlement is less than $200 million........
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 03:39 PM ET
That could happen, but I think, at most, four or five will go.
33laszlo99 • 02/17/24 05:20 PM ET
I agree **
133193Hokie • 02/18/24 08:22 AM ET
Yes - to all of that. It is my understanding that a long GOR
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 01:04 PM ET
Letting FSU out would open the floodgates to many other schools leaving.
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 01:31 PM ET
It depends on the money involved. If FSU wins their suit, and gets out
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 02:08 PM ET
$100-$250M divided 14 ways over 12 years is chump change**
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 02:16 PM ET
WSU and Oregon State delayed.......
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 01:20 PM ET
FMV is a big problem here..
jesuisvtguy • 02/17/24 11:06 AM ET
The B1G went full Robber Baron on UO and UW.
Maroon Baboon • 02/17/24 11:58 AM ET
The analogy is spot on.**
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 12:22 PM ET
#2 is spot on The B1G has made some very smart moves - they know how to
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 11:24 AM ET
When you're not worth.....
2hhoop3 • 02/17/24 12:43 PM ET
Alternatively, the Big Ten has killed college athletics
SMU Pony • 02/17/24 12:00 PM ET
Just wait until the BigTen eliminates some schools
HokieToph • 02/17/24 05:51 PM ET
Rutgers and Maryland were not added to The B1G for their FB reputation.
33laszlo99 • 02/18/24 09:00 PM ET
You could have.....
2hhoop3 • 02/18/24 09:08 PM ET
Yeah, Nielsen loves NYC.**
33laszlo99 • 02/18/24 09:17 PM ET
Addition by subtraction is a very real risk in the future.
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 06:07 PM ET
Notre Dame in The B1G will not change much for Purdue and Indiana. The
33laszlo99 • 02/18/24 09:13 PM ET
Indiana has value as a basketball brand, but what value does Purdue bring?**
tarheelblue • 02/18/24 09:19 PM ET
There will still be some form of rationalization but as part of a larger
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 12:46 PM ET
If B1G could replace Purdue and Northwestern with Arizona and Utah
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 12:57 PM ET
I also believe B1G needs at least one more in the West, maybe two.**
33laszlo99 • 02/18/24 09:23 PM ET
Texas is the culprit. **
Big12 guy • 02/17/24 12:23 PM ET
Are they, though?
SMU Pony • 02/17/24 12:29 PM ET
Would you rather watch SMU play ECU?**
tarheelblue • 02/17/24 12:15 PM ET
Absolutely not. I'll be on the front row in Winston-Salem when we play Wake**
SMU Pony • 02/17/24 12:18 PM ET
Good post. Two things.
Maroon Baboon • 02/17/24 10:20 AM ET
If we go #2
MrFantastic! • 02/17/24 10:32 AM ET
We know the SEC doesn't want Miami.
EDGEMAN • 02/17/24 11:02 AM ET
Disagree. The SEC has considered Miami in the past...
SMU Pony • 02/17/24 12:02 PM ET
Miami has about 50 traveling fans, and doesn't play in their own stadium
EDGEMAN • 02/17/24 02:20 PM ET
I think the B1G goes hard after Miami. The B1G/Fox can "sell" the heck out
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 12:49 PM ET
Agreed. Big market, AAU, lots of Big Ten alumni living there...
SMU Pony • 02/17/24 12:51 PM ET
I am afraid of #2.**
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 10:29 AM ET
Good points...
MrFantastic! • 02/17/24 10:28 AM ET
Think of an SEC pod of VT, USC, Kentucky, Tenn, WVU, NCST
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 10:33 AM ET
Big POD will not be Big East like but
MrFantastic! • 02/17/24 10:34 AM ET
There was ALWAYS going to be a "bargain" - i.e. agreed upon settlement
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 10:11 AM ET
I suppose FSU knows the BIG desires them**
MrFantastic! • 02/17/24 10:17 AM ET
If I were betting $, I would bet FSU wants the B1G and UNC wants the SEC.
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 10:27 AM ET
I agree with
MrFantastic! • 02/17/24 10:36 AM ET
Agreed. If I were the SEC king for a day......
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 10:48 AM ET
If I am SEC
MrFantastic! • 02/17/24 11:22 AM ET
Yea - I thought about Neb and Colo - but I dont see the value compared
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 11:27 AM ET
So..., my pods would be
133193Hokie • 02/17/24 11:15 AM ET
I raise my price - F$U can leave if they give the ACC $5B today
EDGEMAN • 02/17/24 09:51 AM ET
As to the UNC/NCSU & UVa/VT issues
Vippie1 • 02/17/24 08:30 AM ET