Joined:
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I think expansion is about done.
I can't see any P2 schools wanting to add mouths to their table. I also don't see ESPN or Fox wanting to add heavily to their payments to the 4 conferences. North Carolina is as mythical a white whale as anything else, as Tarheel football fans are as important to ESPN as Panther fans are to the NFL's viewership base.
At this point, I see increased revenue for conferences becoming fairly standard over the issue of new contracts, with the only big increase being a 16 team playoff and the only haggling point being the methodology by which pieces of the CFP pie that are split by the leagues. And we already know the P2 will keep dangling the guaranteed bids to the ACC, Big XII and G5 in order to keep the lion's share of the profits. The P2 will probably squeeze a few more percentage points or profit around 2031 when guaranteeing the Big 12 and ACC 2 bids each to a new 16 team tournament. (25% of the P4 teams....12.5% of the CFP entries)
The only thing that remains in terms of hope is if an even revenue sharing structure can be agreed upon between all P4 leagues and Notre Dame. Similar to the NFL model, this could level the playing field for all. If not, welcome to annual NCAA tournament fields with 14 SEC basketball teams and 3 from the ACC.
Thread Replies (66)
Reading the Tea Leaves: 2031 and the ACC
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 12, 2025 at 09:16 AM ET
RandomAsianGuy
•
02/12/25 09:16 AM ET
if a breakaway was going to happen, they'd have already done it
-- daveinop
Feb 12, 2025 at 07:24 PM ET
daveinop
•
02/12/25 07:24 PM ET
I think expansion is about done.
◄
-- hokieZ71
Feb 12, 2025 at 01:38 PM ET
hokieZ71
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02/12/25 01:38 PM ET
#1 Fsu has nowhere to go. #2 Espn locked the ACC in until the mid 2030s. **
-- SpeakToDamien
Feb 12, 2025 at 12:31 PM ET
SpeakToDamien
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02/12/25 12:31 PM ET
1. I think the B10 is interested in FSU. 2. I said “BUY-OUT”.
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 12, 2025 at 01:35 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
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02/12/25 01:35 PM ET
The ACC has no incentive to agree to a reduced buyout for FSU. **
-- tarheelblue
Feb 12, 2025 at 02:22 PM ET
tarheelblue
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02/12/25 02:22 PM ET
Getting some money vs. no money when the contract expires?
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 12, 2025 at 04:04 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
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02/12/25 04:04 PM ET
The ACC may be a sinking ship
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:34 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
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02/12/25 05:34 PM ET
I can't argue with your little fantasies.
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:39 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
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02/12/25 05:39 PM ET
Your deadweight argument is getting old.
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 12, 2025 at 06:10 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
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02/12/25 06:10 PM ET
Can you not read?
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 10:11 AM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
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02/13/25 10:11 AM ET
I can read. Thanks for being super rude.
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 13, 2025 at 02:41 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
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02/13/25 02:41 PM ET
I've responded to it several times, big guy. You just ignore my response.
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 03:45 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/13/25 03:45 PM ET
You don't get it or pretend you don't get it?
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 13, 2025 at 05:15 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
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02/13/25 05:15 PM ET
Full share B12 members will be distributed $44m this year vs.-
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 05:42 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
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02/13/25 05:42 PM ET
Math is easy. $470M for 14 schools = $33.6M per school.
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 13, 2025 at 06:15 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
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02/13/25 06:15 PM ET
The math is different because........
-- 2hhoop3
Feb 13, 2025 at 06:22 PM ET
2hhoop3
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02/13/25 06:22 PM ET
Who wants to stay? That is the better question. **
-- Big12 guy
Feb 12, 2025 at 06:16 PM ET
Big12 guy
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02/12/25 06:16 PM ET
None. Every M2 school would leave for the P2 if possible. Between M2,
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 12, 2025 at 06:50 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
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02/12/25 06:50 PM ET
"WVU, Cincinnati, UCF, Utah, and ASU would want to join the ACC"
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 10:24 AM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
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02/13/25 10:24 AM ET
You probably haven't realized how crazy funny you are.**
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 13, 2025 at 02:45 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
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02/13/25 02:45 PM ET
The money is the same, and except for the circumstances of Utah and
-- Big12 guy
Feb 12, 2025 at 07:36 PM ET
Big12 guy
•
02/12/25 07:36 PM ET
Look out everyone, he's got his crystal ball out again!!!
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 10:57 AM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
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02/13/25 10:57 AM ET
Dial it back, please.
-- Will Stewart
Feb 13, 2025 at 04:38 PM ET
Will Stewart
•
02/13/25 04:38 PM ET
Didn't he get a warning before? Not sure why he keeps insulting others.**
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 13, 2025 at 05:05 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
•
02/13/25 05:05 PM ET
There's a big difference in insulting someone personally and insulting-
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 05:44 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/13/25 05:44 PM ET
So, you think it's OK to insult other peoples positions if you don't agree?
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 13, 2025 at 06:17 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
•
02/13/25 06:17 PM ET
Lol. All you can do is insult.
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 13, 2025 at 02:43 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
•
02/13/25 02:43 PM ET
Sorry, not upset. FSU can go to
-- Big12 guy
Feb 12, 2025 at 09:24 PM ET
Big12 guy
•
02/12/25 09:24 PM ET
ACC + G5 maybe but if we are then it will most likely be the G8
-- VTCALS72
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:31 PM ET
VTCALS72
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02/12/25 05:31 PM ET
I understand that you'd LIKE the ACC to be thought of as a peer w/ the B12-
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:34 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
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02/12/25 05:34 PM ET
Who says any backfilling will be needed?
-- VTCALS72
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:45 PM ET
VTCALS72
•
02/12/25 05:45 PM ET
Ah, another post I can break down sentence by sentence. I like these-
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 09:58 AM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
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02/13/25 09:58 AM ET
Go to an Iowa state game, and compare that to any in the ACC. Like
-- Big12 guy
Feb 12, 2025 at 06:06 PM ET
Big12 guy
•
02/12/25 06:06 PM ET
It is an east coast bubble that Vt is in. That is part of the reality.
-- VTCALS72
Feb 12, 2025 at 09:10 PM ET
VTCALS72
•
02/12/25 09:10 PM ET
I think the biggest bubble around these parts is the one you're living in-
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 10:20 AM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/13/25 10:20 AM ET
The idea that the Big 12 would raid the Pac-12 was fantasy talk too
-- tarheelblue
Feb 12, 2025 at 04:26 PM ET
tarheelblue
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02/12/25 04:26 PM ET
Big difference - The Big 12 didn't raid the Pac-12 until USC, UCLA, Oregon-
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 12, 2025 at 04:39 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/12/25 04:39 PM ET
You're basically proving my point.
-- tarheelblue
Feb 12, 2025 at 04:48 PM ET
tarheelblue
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02/12/25 04:48 PM ET
You're not incorrect, but what's going to change between now and 2031-
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:09 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
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02/12/25 05:09 PM ET
I agree that is the most plausible scenario, but strange things can happen.**
-- tarheelblue
Feb 16, 2025 at 09:41 PM ET
tarheelblue
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02/16/25 09:41 PM ET
This is NOT an ACC vs the B12 thing guys. This is an ACC thing. **
-- Big12 guy
Feb 12, 2025 at 04:54 PM ET
Big12 guy
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02/12/25 04:54 PM ET
No, it is the B12 knowing that their dream is totally flushed
-- VTCALS72
Feb 12, 2025 at 10:15 PM ET
VTCALS72
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02/12/25 10:15 PM ET
I don't represent the B12, but the idea that the B12 has anything to
-- Big12 guy
Feb 13, 2025 at 07:15 AM ET
Big12 guy
•
02/13/25 07:15 AM ET
You should save your breath - some will never understand that.
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:23 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/12/25 05:23 PM ET
TCU is better than SMU but I would take SMU over Houston. **
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:26 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
•
02/12/25 05:26 PM ET
If you can google media rights contract payouts, you can google TV viewers.
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 03:53 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/13/25 03:53 PM ET
2024 attendance number. SMU: 32,652 Houston: 27,423**
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 13, 2025 at 06:11 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
•
02/13/25 06:11 PM ET
How are they a 'positive addition?' What do they actually do for anyone?
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 12, 2025 at 04:31 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/12/25 04:31 PM ET
You really need to examine.......
-- 2hhoop3
Feb 12, 2025 at 04:36 PM ET
2hhoop3
•
02/12/25 04:36 PM ET
Let me just go ahead and break your post down, sentence by sentence.
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:00 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/12/25 05:00 PM ET
They weren't already in .......
-- 2hhoop3
Feb 12, 2025 at 05:18 PM ET
2hhoop3
•
02/12/25 05:18 PM ET
Everything in this post is wrong, again. If you want to know why, go back-
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 03:50 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/13/25 03:50 PM ET
I already refuted everything you said. I'm not typing it all out again.
-- Baltimore_Hokie
Feb 13, 2025 at 04:05 PM ET
Baltimore_Hokie
•
02/13/25 04:05 PM ET
UNC's the prize pig in the ACC, not Clemson or FSU**
-- mancunian
Feb 12, 2025 at 10:43 AM ET
mancunian
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02/12/25 10:43 AM ET
You are probably right. But UNC can wait until the GoR expires.
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 12, 2025 at 01:37 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
•
02/12/25 01:37 PM ET
That's a mighty big assumption that the SEC is even interested in FSU
-- HokieToph
Feb 12, 2025 at 10:26 AM ET
HokieToph
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02/12/25 10:26 AM ET
FSU doens’t have a chance with the SEC. Their best bet is the B10 IMHO. **
-- RandomAsianGuy
Feb 12, 2025 at 01:32 PM ET
RandomAsianGuy
•
02/12/25 01:32 PM ET
Yes, the B1G really wants to get into Florida. FSU just needs AAU status.**
-- tarheelblue
Feb 12, 2025 at 02:24 PM ET
tarheelblue
•
02/12/25 02:24 PM ET
It may be best for FSU and Clemson to negotiate for 2031
-- VTCALS72
Feb 12, 2025 at 09:34 AM ET
VTCALS72
•
02/12/25 09:34 AM ET