All Hokie, All the Time. Period. Presented by First Bank & Trust Company

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Joined: 10/30/2003
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My rebuttal

My analysis does have real value for people who are smart enough to recognize it. I'm using a Virginia sample to support my assertion that high school rankings are not reliable. I've done the same analysis of Virginia Tech classes over eight years and I've found that roughly half of BOTH the four and three star recruits have not contributed at Tech. Some did contribute elsewhere so I will consider a separate calculation of guys that contributed elsewhere. Roughly half of the recruits are not going to contribute AND it's the same story everywhere. My conclusion can be anything I want it to be as long as I corroborate it with data. I have NiNE years of data from Virginia and I have SEVEN years of data for Virginia Tech. I don't agree that the ranking should be skill based and I don't believe people can accurately rate players who do not compete against each other in the same leagues. I believe classes should be evaluated based on production and that is why I primarily consider starts, snaps and stats. Post-season honors are often biased or arbitrary so I would never assign points based on those honors. I did start adding NFL analysis as well since that is another independent measure. You don't understand the analysis. I'm not doing statistics. I'm a historian, investigator and auditor. Statistics do not apply when I am reviewing the data FIVE YEARS LATER. I know which players are busts and which ones overachieved. Statistics can be manipulated so I wouldn't trust most of the big reports. My analysis includes the portal so I actually keep track of where the players transferred. I will count a guy as a contributor if he has a big season at a G6 school but D3 don't count. Read my conclusion in CAPS so you will understand what I am saying. RECRUITING RANKINGS CANNOT BE RELIED UPON WHEN THE ATTRITION RATES ON AVERAGE EXCEED FORTY PERCENT ANNUALLY. I contend that high school recruits failing to meet expectations in normal since it's not possible to predict future success of high school recruits. I've been following recruiting for over thirty years and I want people to realize that a significant percentage of these recruits will not meet expectations for various reasons. The coaches are often at fault for not developing the player or putting them in the best position.
Posted: 06/21/2026 at 11:17 AM ET
(In response to this post by U2Hokie)

Thread Replies (56)

Full Thread →
Flanker 06/19/26 10:54 AM ET
I give you credit for using your VT statistics degree for us.
VaTechie 06/19/26 08:30 PM ET
I take issue with page 71, paragraph 5, sentence 3.**
Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie 06/19/26 06:54 PM ET
Wow I think you defended your thesis well. I will try to consolidate all
uber hokie 06/19/26 06:36 PM ET
Let's talk about these talented players in five years.
Flanker 06/20/26 06:31 AM ET
I gave this a like because it was…
VPI63 06/19/26 06:24 PM ET
You can click on the link at the bottom to see the previous year's analysis
Flanker 06/20/26 06:33 AM ET
hmmmmmm... so, yer sayin' thar's a, chance?
bourbonstreet 06/19/26 06:21 PM ET
I put the percentages below for the nine year period
Flanker 06/20/26 06:37 AM ET
Agree with you or not, I have to admire the amount of work you put in**
HokieNL 06/19/26 02:32 PM ET
Credibiltiy check: You said VT has better contributors than Ohio State. **
Techsupport 06/19/26 02:00 PM ET
FWIW, the entire notion that HS recruiting is a revenue stream...
Beerman 06/19/26 01:10 PM ET
You seem to be an expert in recruiting
Hardcore_Hokie 06/19/26 12:31 PM ET
Nobody can accurately predict with certainty the success of the recruits
Flanker 06/19/26 01:06 PM ET
I guess I don’t understand how this suggests Star ratings
Pride_and_Joy 06/19/26 11:26 AM ET
^^^This right here^^^ Hammer meets nail! @Flanker lots of great
U2Hokie 06/20/26 03:47 PM ET
Here’s a quick synopsis of the estimating small proportions
Pride_and_Joy 06/20/26 05:35 PM ET
P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years
Flanker 06/20/26 04:57 PM ET
@Flanker I'd like to see your contribution metric for 3 and 4 stars
U2Hokie 06/20/26 08:57 PM ET
Here you go
Flanker 06/21/26 10:09 AM ET
TY - Have a great Fathers day if appropriate!
U2Hokie 06/21/26 10:50 AM ET
My rebuttal
Flanker 06/21/26 11:17 AM ET
OK - keep on chuggin those numbers out as a historian/auditor 5 yrs later -
U2Hokie 06/21/26 04:37 PM ET
I'm doing one more year so I'll have TEN years of data.
Flanker 06/21/26 06:49 PM ET
10-4 TY - The Athletic reranked with the benefit of history and only 11
U2Hokie 06/21/26 07:05 PM ET
The fact is.......
2hhoop3 06/21/26 07:22 PM ET
Here is a great article too**
U2Hokie 06/20/26 03:48 PM ET
Interesting but I object to some of their methods and conclusions
Flanker 06/21/26 11:24 AM ET
Let me explain
Flanker 06/19/26 11:46 AM ET
If attrition rates include transfer portal I’m surprised it’s not higher
uber hokie 06/19/26 06:28 PM ET
This is a bit like deciding you don't want to use a couple
BuffaloTraceHokie 06/19/26 04:14 PM ET
Need a bunch of 4s for sure
crazylane 06/19/26 10:37 PM ET
Too many four stars are overrated
Flanker 06/20/26 08:48 AM ET
If you're not getting you're share of 4 stars(double digits maybe)
crazylane 06/20/26 04:40 PM ET
This analysis says dont worry - 3's are just as good if not better than 4's
U2Hokie 06/22/26 07:16 AM ET
Good analogy
Flanker 06/19/26 05:13 PM ET
I appreciate the response. And I won't go into it here, but...
BuffaloTraceHokie 06/24/26 09:49 AM ET
What do you mean by attrition rate? **
Pride_and_Joy 06/19/26 12:48 PM ET
All that means is that base rates of success are
Pride_and_Joy 06/19/26 04:24 PM ET
The rankings are certainly unreliable
Flanker 06/20/26 06:54 AM ET
I don’t know anyone who thinks the predictive validity
Pride_and_Joy 06/20/26 09:01 AM ET
It sounds like we might agree that the rankings are unreliable
Flanker 06/20/26 09:15 AM ET
You just plucked an arbitrary number out of thin air.
Pride_and_Joy 06/20/26 10:00 AM ET
So you're happy with 50% accuracy?
Flanker 06/20/26 10:43 AM ET
Also the NFL Draft is BS, the NBA Draft is BS, Stock Market is BS.
Hardcore_Hokie 06/20/26 04:21 PM ET
The percentage you set.....
2hhoop3 06/20/26 09:43 AM ET
I hope we agree that .300 is really bad for predictions.
Flanker 06/20/26 10:56 AM ET
Everyone should do.....
2hhoop3 06/20/26 11:16 AM ET
I conducted an AUDIT and the recruiting service algorithms FAILED.
Flanker 06/20/26 05:13 PM ET
You can see yourself ......
2hhoop3 06/20/26 06:00 PM ET
Sorry about that. I meant recruits that don't contribute.
Flanker 06/19/26 12:55 PM ET
I'll save you some time. You don't need to look at any other year.
UEMcGill 06/19/26 11:02 AM ET
I'm doing one more year. I'll just find other ways to waste time.
Flanker 06/19/26 01:08 PM ET
I sometimes wonder if the schools they select is another variable.
TekkNerd 06/19/26 11:19 AM ET
Picking the school with the best scheme and coaches is important.
Flanker 06/19/26 05:17 PM ET
I agree with this assessment. If a 4 star player is
vthogon 06/19/26 12:57 PM ET
High School Recruiting Rankings are meant to be a projection.
Flanker 06/19/26 05:23 PM ET