ingredients in a dish you're making because you don't like them as stand alone ingredients... You put a lot of work into this and it is really quite interesting to look at! I'm not sure the point you are trying to make is one that should be thought about too much. At the end of the day you need a roster full of 4* and 5* kids to compete at a high level. You stand a much better chance at hitting on those kids than you do a roster full of 3* kids. Also, remember, high school recruiting is a bit challenging. You are predicting how well a kid will do at the next level based on physical metrics and the good old fashioned "eye test". Anyone can miss something along the way there. Lastly, there are a ton of variables once these kids leave high school... Do they stay healthy? How committed are they going to be to the S&C program? How well does the scheme they are part of fit their skill set, and if it doesn't, are they going to get the development they need? How well will these kids mesh with the coaching staff and teammates? That will impact development as well. There are more, but my point is this - take any one of the "overrated" kids and dig a little. I wonder if you'll find some variables that might indicate circumstances led to what happened more than the fact that they were overrated. For example - I would argue that Michael Holmes was grossly underrated coming out of HHS. He happened to be running behind one of the worst, if not the worst, run blocking lines in the history of VT football. Additionally, his career was cut short because of some VT "politics" (I'll leave it at that). That kid was an absolute stud who didn't have the opportunity to develop and would have likely fallen into the "overrated" category on your list. Again, I appreciate the work you put in here. It was quite the dig and a very interesting read, ,so don't hear me saying what you posted isn't helpful. I just thought I'd offer some perspective from my vantage point.