I didn't see much separation between the top three stars and the top four stars. I would suggest that you compare the top FIVE four stars to the top FIVE three and two star players. I've been arguing that there is more talent among the two and three star players compared to the four star players. This is mainly due to the fact that there are usually ten-ish four stars compared to 50-ish three stars in Virginia each year. The numbers vary each year. I put the main summaries of my findings below. The important stat to note is that a significant percentage of the four stars do not contribute. The three stars contribute at a higher percentage but they are often at lower-tier schools. Having said that, there have been plenty of two and three star players who have contributed at higher-tier schools. The four stars are drafted at a higher rate over the three stars but I would argue that this is mainly due to the fact there are not as many four stars. There are a lot of draft busts so I wouldn't use draft status as the final judgment on a player's abiliites. I've found that a lot of players make rosters as UDFA's and a lot of these studies do not address that. Additionally, I've found that the average NFL seasons of the players is not significantly different. A lot of the players have not ended their playing careers so the season analysis is incomplete. From the analysis: Of the 2012 - 2020 VA Top 25 VA HS recruits on 247 Sports, 92% of the TWELVE five star recruits contributed to their programs. 53% of the SEVENTY-NINE four star recruits contributed to their programs and 59% of the 130 three star recruits contributed to their programs. A review of the 2012 - 2020 VA Top 25 VA HS recruits on 247 Sports reveals that three star recruits have achieved the most NFL success in absolute numbers with TWENTY-SIX NFL draftees and FIVE undrafted free agents who made rosters. The four stars are second with SIXTEEN draftees and THREE UDFA's who made rosters. The five stars are next with SIX draftees. The two star players are last with THREE draftees and FOUR UDFA's who made rosters. On a percentage basis, five stars lead the way with 50% of the TWELVE players getting drafted. The four stars are next with 24% of the SEVENTY-NINE players being drafted or making the rosters as UDFA's. The VA Top 25 three stars are next with 12% of the 130 players achieving NFL success while the overall success rate for the VA three stars is 8% of the 388 players. The two star percentage is 2% of the 295 players. While many of the players' NFL careers have not ended, a review through the 2019 class shows the average playing career of the various recruits by star rating. The SIX five star recruits have averaged 5.3 years in the NFL. The SEVENTEEN four star recruits have averaged 4.6 years. The TWENTY-FOUR three star recruits have averaged 4.4 years. The SEVEN two star and below recruits have averaged 3.0 years. I chose to use the contributor method since it's a relatively simple method and I didn't think I had the ability to assign ratings to each player. My overall philosophy is that most programs are lucky to get one or two seasons of output out of a player so I didn't differentiate between a three year starter vs a guy who started in year two. My overall objective is to warn people to not get too attached to these rankings when 50% of a typical class will not meet expectations. I've also been following recruiting for over thirty years and I realized in the aughts that many of these predictions were wrong. I was also inspired by Andy Bitter's articles that revisited Virginia Tech's classes five years later to evaluate them. I pasted the informal thesis and my conclusion from my analysis below. From the analysis: High school recruiting rankings are not reliable and should only be reviewed five or six years later. CONCLUSION: While the five star recruits have outstanding contribution rates, attrition among the remainder of the Virginia top 25 recruits remains significant. Rankings cannot be relied upon when the attrition rates on average exceed forty percent annually. There are also several players outside of the top 25 who contribute at their programs and achieve NFL success.