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Joined: 10/30/2003
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Flanker

High School Recruiting Rankings are meant to be a projection.

You are ignoring the off-field issues that often derail a career. I'm mainly referring to academics, legal troubles, medical retirement, etc. There are also a lot of players who peak in high school and there are many late bloomers. I do agree that a scheme that fits the player's talents can make a difference. Another guy was saying in the last analysis that VA three star players would not contribute at P2 programs but that is not true. I listed below the three star and under players that did contribute at P2 schools. 2012 3 star Tyrell Chavis and 3 star Derek Dowrey 2013 3 star Daesean Hamilton 2014 3 star Wilton Speight, 3 star Trace McSorley and 2 star Cole Herdman 2015 3 star Felton Davis 2016 3 star Kyree Campbell, 3 star K'Von Wallace plus 2 star Andrew Vastardis 2017 3 star Chris Pierce, 2 star EJ Jenkins, 2 star Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey 2018 3 star Chris Collins, 3 star Billy Kemp 2019 3 star Jakai Moore, 3 star Cameron Allen, 3 star E.J. Horton, 2 star Dequece Carter, NR Antwane Wells You misinterpreted what high school recruiting rankings are. These high school analysts state that they are projecting the future performance of these recruits. You assert that rankings are a snapshot but they are supposed to be a projection. That is why I contend that recruiting rankings cannot be relied upon due to the large percentages of recruits who do not contribute. I linked below an interview with a 247 Sports official who explained what the recruiting rankings are supposed to represent.
Link: 247 Sports Recruiting Rankings Interview
Posted: 06/19/2026 at 05:23 PM ET
(In response to this post by vthogon)

Thread Replies (56)

Full Thread →
Flanker • 06/19/26 10:54 AM ET
I give you credit for using your VT statistics degree for us.
VaTechie • 06/19/26 08:30 PM ET
I take issue with page 71, paragraph 5, sentence 3.**
Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie • 06/19/26 06:54 PM ET
Wow I think you defended your thesis well. I will try to consolidate all
uber hokie • 06/19/26 06:36 PM ET
Let's talk about these talented players in five years.
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:31 AM ET
I gave this a like because it was…
VPI63 • 06/19/26 06:24 PM ET
You can click on the link at the bottom to see the previous year's analysis
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:33 AM ET
hmmmmmm... so, yer sayin' thar's a, chance?
bourbonstreet • 06/19/26 06:21 PM ET
I put the percentages below for the nine year period
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:37 AM ET
Agree with you or not, I have to admire the amount of work you put in**
HokieNL • 06/19/26 02:32 PM ET
Credibiltiy check: You said VT has better contributors than Ohio State. **
Techsupport • 06/19/26 02:00 PM ET
FWIW, the entire notion that HS recruiting is a revenue stream...
Beerman • 06/19/26 01:10 PM ET
You seem to be an expert in recruiting
Hardcore_Hokie • 06/19/26 12:31 PM ET
Nobody can accurately predict with certainty the success of the recruits
Flanker • 06/19/26 01:06 PM ET
I guess I don’t understand how this suggests Star ratings
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 11:26 AM ET
^^^This right here^^^ Hammer meets nail! @Flanker lots of great
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 03:47 PM ET
Here’s a quick synopsis of the estimating small proportions
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 05:35 PM ET
P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years
Flanker • 06/20/26 04:57 PM ET
@Flanker I'd like to see your contribution metric for 3 and 4 stars
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 08:57 PM ET
Here you go
Flanker • 06/21/26 10:09 AM ET
TY - Have a great Fathers day if appropriate!
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 10:50 AM ET
My rebuttal
Flanker • 06/21/26 11:17 AM ET
OK - keep on chuggin those numbers out as a historian/auditor 5 yrs later -
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 04:37 PM ET
I'm doing one more year so I'll have TEN years of data.
Flanker • 06/21/26 06:49 PM ET
10-4 TY - The Athletic reranked with the benefit of history and only 11
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 07:05 PM ET
The fact is.......
2hhoop3 • 06/21/26 07:22 PM ET
Here is a great article too**
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 03:48 PM ET
Interesting but I object to some of their methods and conclusions
Flanker • 06/21/26 11:24 AM ET
Let me explain
Flanker • 06/19/26 11:46 AM ET
If attrition rates include transfer portal I’m surprised it’s not higher
uber hokie • 06/19/26 06:28 PM ET
This is a bit like deciding you don't want to use a couple
BuffaloTraceHokie • 06/19/26 04:14 PM ET
Need a bunch of 4s for sure
crazylane • 06/19/26 10:37 PM ET
Too many four stars are overrated
Flanker • 06/20/26 08:48 AM ET
If you're not getting you're share of 4 stars(double digits maybe)
crazylane • 06/20/26 04:40 PM ET
This analysis says dont worry - 3's are just as good if not better than 4's
U2Hokie • 06/22/26 07:16 AM ET
Good analogy
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:13 PM ET
I appreciate the response. And I won't go into it here, but...
BuffaloTraceHokie • 06/24/26 09:49 AM ET
What do you mean by attrition rate? **
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 12:48 PM ET
All that means is that base rates of success are
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 04:24 PM ET
The rankings are certainly unreliable
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:54 AM ET
I don’t know anyone who thinks the predictive validity
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 09:01 AM ET
It sounds like we might agree that the rankings are unreliable
Flanker • 06/20/26 09:15 AM ET
You just plucked an arbitrary number out of thin air.
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 10:00 AM ET
So you're happy with 50% accuracy?
Flanker • 06/20/26 10:43 AM ET
Also the NFL Draft is BS, the NBA Draft is BS, Stock Market is BS.
Hardcore_Hokie • 06/20/26 04:21 PM ET
The percentage you set.....
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 09:43 AM ET
I hope we agree that .300 is really bad for predictions.
Flanker • 06/20/26 10:56 AM ET
Everyone should do.....
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 11:16 AM ET
I conducted an AUDIT and the recruiting service algorithms FAILED.
Flanker • 06/20/26 05:13 PM ET
You can see yourself ......
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 06:00 PM ET
Sorry about that. I meant recruits that don't contribute.
Flanker • 06/19/26 12:55 PM ET
I'll save you some time. You don't need to look at any other year.
UEMcGill • 06/19/26 11:02 AM ET
I'm doing one more year. I'll just find other ways to waste time.
Flanker • 06/19/26 01:08 PM ET
I sometimes wonder if the schools they select is another variable.
TekkNerd • 06/19/26 11:19 AM ET
Picking the school with the best scheme and coaches is important.
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:17 PM ET
I agree with this assessment. If a 4 star player is
vthogon • 06/19/26 12:57 PM ET
High School Recruiting Rankings are meant to be a projection. ◄
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:23 PM ET