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Joined: 01/02/2003
Posts: 68
Likes: 3

I agree with this assessment. If a 4 star player is

buried on the depth chart at a school...they don't get the benefit of continued in-game development as a player. That 3 star player that found themselves in a situation that allowed meaningful game reps enabled their continued development and provided an opportunity to surpass the skillset of players previously ranked higher. I think this is often the case for why highly ranked players "bust" out of high school. At that moment in time, they may have had higher potential but the lower ranked player found better opportunity and greatly improved their skill-set compared to where they were coming out of high school. This is why fit matters so much for players at all levels. Game reps are invaluable and standing on the sidelines greatly impacts development. This is also why the transfer portal is such a valuable tool for both players and teams. The player can continue to pursue opportunities that offer the best fit at that moment in time (which helps them maximize their skillset) and teams can select players that they may have previously passed on due to their previously perceived potential and have now benefitted from game reps, coaching, hard work...etc. I still think that rankings matter, but equally important is playing time, position coaching and dedication to improvement ("work") throughout the process. It's just like any other job...you have to keep improving your skillset to stay ahead. By continuing to improve your skillset on the job you become a better employee. A player has to get better on the field (reps greatly help players get better) or prove through practice they are getting better to get game reps. However, it's prob an uphill battle to prove game readiness if you can't showcase your skillset on gamedays and thus you fall behind and may be overlooked on the bench. Potential is what coaches are looking for and past success showcasing talent factors into likely future success. High contribution percent as described just highlights those that found good or great fits. However, for great teams you need high percentages of the high potential players to also be good fits for the team to maximize impact and success. Lots of 3 star talent "fits" at say Syracuse don't necessarily translate equally to the 4 and 5 star fits at Ohio State and likely the 3 stars at Ohio State found ways to elevate their skillset over higher rated players at their school by other various ways. They all get high contribution rates but the skillset is likely better on average at Ohio State (for example). Even on average when comparing 3 stars on one team vs another. The average team skillset is what is important. But rating out of high school is just a snapshot at that moment in time. It doesn't mean the 4 star wasn't better in high school and that ratings are BS...it just means that variables over time impacted the players for various reasons differenty. Heck, they are 18 out of High School...maybe the 3 stars grew and hit the gym harder in College, accompanied with proper fit and coaching was enough to elevate them to a much greater potential than what was perceived in HS.
Posted: 06/19/2026 at 12:57 PM ET
(In response to this post by TekkNerd)

Thread Replies (56)

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Flanker 06/19/26 10:54 AM ET
I give you credit for using your VT statistics degree for us.
VaTechie 06/19/26 08:30 PM ET
I take issue with page 71, paragraph 5, sentence 3.**
Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie 06/19/26 06:54 PM ET
Wow I think you defended your thesis well. I will try to consolidate all
uber hokie 06/19/26 06:36 PM ET
Let's talk about these talented players in five years.
Flanker 06/20/26 06:31 AM ET
I gave this a like because it was…
VPI63 06/19/26 06:24 PM ET
You can click on the link at the bottom to see the previous year's analysis
Flanker 06/20/26 06:33 AM ET
hmmmmmm... so, yer sayin' thar's a, chance?
bourbonstreet 06/19/26 06:21 PM ET
I put the percentages below for the nine year period
Flanker 06/20/26 06:37 AM ET
Agree with you or not, I have to admire the amount of work you put in**
HokieNL 06/19/26 02:32 PM ET
Credibiltiy check: You said VT has better contributors than Ohio State. **
Techsupport 06/19/26 02:00 PM ET
FWIW, the entire notion that HS recruiting is a revenue stream...
Beerman 06/19/26 01:10 PM ET
You seem to be an expert in recruiting
Hardcore_Hokie 06/19/26 12:31 PM ET
Nobody can accurately predict with certainty the success of the recruits
Flanker 06/19/26 01:06 PM ET
I guess I don’t understand how this suggests Star ratings
Pride_and_Joy 06/19/26 11:26 AM ET
^^^This right here^^^ Hammer meets nail! @Flanker lots of great
U2Hokie 06/20/26 03:47 PM ET
Here’s a quick synopsis of the estimating small proportions
Pride_and_Joy 06/20/26 05:35 PM ET
P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years
Flanker 06/20/26 04:57 PM ET
@Flanker I'd like to see your contribution metric for 3 and 4 stars
U2Hokie 06/20/26 08:57 PM ET
Here you go
Flanker 06/21/26 10:09 AM ET
TY - Have a great Fathers day if appropriate!
U2Hokie 06/21/26 10:50 AM ET
My rebuttal
Flanker 06/21/26 11:17 AM ET
OK - keep on chuggin those numbers out as a historian/auditor 5 yrs later -
U2Hokie 06/21/26 04:37 PM ET
I'm doing one more year so I'll have TEN years of data.
Flanker 06/21/26 06:49 PM ET
10-4 TY - The Athletic reranked with the benefit of history and only 11
U2Hokie 06/21/26 07:05 PM ET
The fact is.......
2hhoop3 06/21/26 07:22 PM ET
Here is a great article too**
U2Hokie 06/20/26 03:48 PM ET
Interesting but I object to some of their methods and conclusions
Flanker 06/21/26 11:24 AM ET
Let me explain
Flanker 06/19/26 11:46 AM ET
If attrition rates include transfer portal I’m surprised it’s not higher
uber hokie 06/19/26 06:28 PM ET
This is a bit like deciding you don't want to use a couple
BuffaloTraceHokie 06/19/26 04:14 PM ET
Need a bunch of 4s for sure
crazylane 06/19/26 10:37 PM ET
Too many four stars are overrated
Flanker 06/20/26 08:48 AM ET
If you're not getting you're share of 4 stars(double digits maybe)
crazylane 06/20/26 04:40 PM ET
This analysis says dont worry - 3's are just as good if not better than 4's
U2Hokie 06/22/26 07:16 AM ET
Good analogy
Flanker 06/19/26 05:13 PM ET
I appreciate the response. And I won't go into it here, but...
BuffaloTraceHokie 06/24/26 09:49 AM ET
What do you mean by attrition rate? **
Pride_and_Joy 06/19/26 12:48 PM ET
All that means is that base rates of success are
Pride_and_Joy 06/19/26 04:24 PM ET
The rankings are certainly unreliable
Flanker 06/20/26 06:54 AM ET
I don’t know anyone who thinks the predictive validity
Pride_and_Joy 06/20/26 09:01 AM ET
It sounds like we might agree that the rankings are unreliable
Flanker 06/20/26 09:15 AM ET
You just plucked an arbitrary number out of thin air.
Pride_and_Joy 06/20/26 10:00 AM ET
So you're happy with 50% accuracy?
Flanker 06/20/26 10:43 AM ET
Also the NFL Draft is BS, the NBA Draft is BS, Stock Market is BS.
Hardcore_Hokie 06/20/26 04:21 PM ET
The percentage you set.....
2hhoop3 06/20/26 09:43 AM ET
I hope we agree that .300 is really bad for predictions.
Flanker 06/20/26 10:56 AM ET
Everyone should do.....
2hhoop3 06/20/26 11:16 AM ET
I conducted an AUDIT and the recruiting service algorithms FAILED.
Flanker 06/20/26 05:13 PM ET
You can see yourself ......
2hhoop3 06/20/26 06:00 PM ET
Sorry about that. I meant recruits that don't contribute.
Flanker 06/19/26 12:55 PM ET
I'll save you some time. You don't need to look at any other year.
UEMcGill 06/19/26 11:02 AM ET
I'm doing one more year. I'll just find other ways to waste time.
Flanker 06/19/26 01:08 PM ET
I sometimes wonder if the schools they select is another variable.
TekkNerd 06/19/26 11:19 AM ET
Picking the school with the best scheme and coaches is important.
Flanker 06/19/26 05:17 PM ET
I agree with this assessment. If a 4 star player is
vthogon 06/19/26 12:57 PM ET
High School Recruiting Rankings are meant to be a projection.
Flanker 06/19/26 05:23 PM ET