If we go 30-23 (15-15) which is a 56% overall win percentage and a 50% conference win percentage, here are some historical stats. Since 2013, there has been 88 ACC teams with at least a 56% overall win percentage and 50%+ conference win percentage. Of those 88 teams, 86 of them (~98%) have made the NCAA tournament. The only two that didn’t make the tournament (Louisville in 2024, UVA in 2025) finished the year with RPI’s in the 60’s (Louisville 61, UVA 64). Given that our RPI is currently #34…if we were to finish 7-3 from here with a 4-2 conference record, our RPI would almost assuredly be in the 30’s and at worst case would be low 40’s. For further context…since 2013, there has been 99 ACC teams finish with an RPI of 45 or better (end of season, not at tournament selection time). Of those 99 teams, 96 of them (~97%) made the tournament and the only three to not make it (Maryland in 2013, UNC in 2016, Louisville in 2023) had conference win percentages in the 33% to 43% range so in your scenario, we would be above that. In my view, if we win our last two ACC series and win out or lose just one non-conference game, we are a lock for the NCAA tournament. ** Edited by QCP at 4/29/2026, 11:16:06 AM