The SEC and B1G's next contracts will pay each school about $90M each, do any of the schools not in the two conferences have that much value? No. USC/UCLA did, Texas/OU did. UW/UO did not, that is why they joined at a lower payout. The question then becomes, is the Big10 Network (Fox/CBS/NBC) willing to pay $90M+ for any of the ACC schools? If it is, then some of the schools will be invited. The next question then becomes, is ESPN willing to pay a lot more money for some of the schools to go to the SEC, or is ESPN content with them staying in the ACC where they can pay them less? I think we all know that answer.

of ALL teams, existing and prospective, paying for themselves the SEC and B1G will both be shrinking and shedding dead weight. I think both conferences will eventually explore unequal revenue sharing as a way to lower the entrance metric and reallocate the revenue pie to the higher performers. Neither the SEC or B1G as currently constituted, either solo or as a P2 will be able to breakaway without more teams due to competitive and coverage deficiencies.

Right now the media money is waiting and deciding what future values might be. Contract discussions will be much more active in another year or two before they get to the end of the current contracts. In the meantime, it a grand melee audition for everyone in the ACC and B12 to prove their worth and value to the media and to the P2. Everything matters now. Wins, attendance, viewership, budgets, location, and entertainment value from coaches and players and the school.

need to "digest" their new members. That process may be complete by the time the ACC's exit fees get to much lower levels. Is this a controlled demolition?

If we are to believe the talking heads, UNC is the big prize left out there in expansionpalooza. But I would not put them in the same class as USC or Texas. And after UNC, it probably goes down in value from there. Ultimate question: will adding one more unit (school) add to the profit of existing P2 schools? There is a tipping point or reverse break even point. But no one is sure exactly where it is.

If they still are thinking of separating - you have people that like non-SEC/B10 schools that watch because it still may affect their own team (or it is a good match-up). If they separate more, I see some people not watching as much, though they will still be on almost every single bar/restaurant. Of course, I think now separating isn't an option for either of them. If it was, I think more teams are necessary - also, if they aren't getting the money they should be getting even at this point, there is still more wiggle room.

bus. What if the bus has a new driver? If so, then what does that model look like? These are questions worth asking because gambling dollars may now be the biggest factor in the decisions made going forward. Particularly since sports gambling is now legal in all parts of the US (I think), every network has partnerships with various gambling entities, and gambling apps make it a lot easier for people to place bets on multiple sporting events going on at the same time even if the person is not watching any sporting event when the bet(s) is/are placed. If sports gambling is now driving the bus, then people may not care if their school is or isn't included in the P2 League. From the P2 perspective, where the number of schools may matter more is making sure the P2 League has enough participating schools in a sport. Specifically I am referring to the niche non-revenue sports (i.e. ice hockey, soccer, water polo, etc.) that only 1 conference currently sponsors, the conference makes money from the sport (i.e. on TV or sells tickets), and the sport is heavily dependent upon non-P2 schools to have enough participating teams so it can be a NCAA sanctioned sport. The reason I mention the last point is because the NCAA Manual (aka bylaws) talks specifically about the number of schools that need to sponsor the sport in order for the NCAA to sanction the sport (aka hold a NCAA Tournament). If the P2s do end up breaking off, then they will want to make sure they have enough participating teams in the sport as long as the schools want to continue sponsoring the sport. At least it is safe to assume that the P2s will create their own bylaws and very likely define a minimal threshold on the number of teams a sport will need to have in order to have a regular season and/or postseason. If schools in the other conference aren't willing to sponsor the sport, then additional schools will need to be added to the mix somehow (think Johns Hopkins membership in the Big Ten for only men's lacrosse).

Unfortunately, the networks are the only ones who have access to any gambling related data (aka activity). As a result, you won't see too many people talk about that part of the equation because there is nothing out there to support their position (for or against). Given the amount of gambling ads people see now and how easy it is to gamble, I do think it has the potential to be a bigger player than people realize. Particularly if the cable industry is transitioning from the linear model to the streaming model which could include offering live sporting events a la carte.