I would be mildly surprised if it is anything else but that. And if it is, it will be the committee choosing a big ACC brand (like Clemson, Miami or FSU) over a lesser P2 brand that had a sneaky good season. The only CFP poll that matters is the last one.

broadcast was about several SEC teams should in the playoff in spite of their losses. The thing they don’t have many out of conference games at this point of the season, so how they could know they deserve it is not something they talk about. PS Believe it or not, they even mentioned Auburn.

shown that they are a good team, but they are a pretender, not a contender. They lost to KU last night, and that KU team could easily only have two losses, as while their record doesn't show it, they were the better team in most of their games. Looking at the rest of the B12, what, Colorado and Arizona state in the championship game? It could play out that way, but that just goes to show the parity of the conference. In reality, they are fortunate to have an "auto" this year. Georgia and the SEC is playing out their regular season. Does anyone on this board think that any B12 team can play between the hedges, and beat Georgia this year? Maybe on a neutral field they would be competitive, but lets be real, the top of the SEC is clearly better than the current line up of the B12 THIS YEAR. The SEC should get 4 teams in, and it would be warranted if any team ends up with 2 losses. 3 losses? Maybe........... The BIG is top heavy with Oregon and OSU. Indiana can prove they are not a pretender against OSU this week, but they are most certainly deserving of a playoff berth. Penn State is another team that is deserving if they win out. That puts the BIG at 4 teams in, but there isn't even talk of a three loss team from that conference getting in. The G5 - could Army win out and remain undefeated? Maybe, but a visit to ND should take care of that. If they beat ND, then they deserve it. BSU almost beat Oregon earlier in the season, and if they had, they would be undefeated and nearly a top 10 team. They will be a spoiler in the playoffs, as they could very well orchestrate an upset or two in the playoffs. I wouldn't want to play them.... Help me out on the ACC guys. Of course I have an opinion, but sometimes, if you don't have something nice to say, it's better to sit down. Can they get two 2 loss teams in over any 2 loss BIG or SEC teams?

And if so, do deserve to get in? Heck they were even talking about potentially 4 loss SEC teams. There are too many games for me to forecast who will get in, but again you’re diverting the thread to a different point. How about answering that question please, I would love to hear what you think of 3 and maybe 4 loss SEC teams making the playoff instead of guessing who is going to make it with so many games left. ** Edited by Stech at 11/18/2024, 8:02:33 AM

impossible for a 3 loss team to get in, and it will happen at some point, but the idea that a 3 loss SEC teams gets in over a one loss ACC or B12 team is absurd. I can certainly see a 3 loss Georgia, or other blue blood getting in over 2 loss ACC and B12 teams, but, at least for now, any one loss ACC or B12 team gets in. BTW, one loss would have knocked out most teams from the playoffs in the past. They now have a chance to prove themselves on the field, and not rely on subjective polls. Any two or three loss teams in the BIG or SEC getting in is irrelevant, as at least for now, the playoff money is guaranteed.

and, in all likelihood, it's going to happen THIS YEAR. You're going to have to eat a lot of crow after all the sunshine pumping you do on here about how things aren't that bad and how multiple Big 12 and ACC programs are going to get in the CFP every year. I will go on record right now that there is definitely going to be at least one one-loss ACC/Big 12 team left out of the CFP field THIS YEAR, while there will be at least one 3 loss SEC/B1G team included. You can take that to the bank. Sharpie. When you need to understand is that the CFP is not FOR the Big 12 and the ACC, it's for the SEC and the B1G. Everyone else just gets one courtesy spot so they'd sign off on the expansion contract in time to go to 12 teams this year. In two years, when it's time for CFP contract negotiation, they're likely going to transition to all at-large bids, and unless they expand to 16 teams, with no auto-bids for conference champions, there will 100% be seasons where no ACC or Big 12 team even gets in the CFP field. You're going to have to wake up and smell the coffee at some point.

expands to 16. If they go to all at large bids, all bets are off, as we just go back to subjective polls determining what happens on the field. I reject that the current ACC will be relegated to one bid now, or moving forward in the current configuration. There are scenarios where the ACC can get 3 in, but of course, this isn't the year by a long stretch. I will be the first to admit, that the b12 is a different story, and without any national historic blue bloods, there will be many 2 loss teams left out of the playoffs. Especially if the BIG and SEC have a scheduling agreement, and SOS can not be improved. I think you, and many overestimate the current moves by the P2. The blue bloods of those conferences already had the recruiting, money, media numbers, and the pollsters in their back pocket. That so called courtesy spot, as you peg it, is something that the teams in the ACC, B12, and G5 did not have before, yet they now have the ability to settle things on the field. It amazes my the negativity that fans of VT are showing. The doom and gloom of not getting the same consideration of the blue bloods was never on the table to begin with, nor will it ever be. That does not preclude your school, or any other school not in the P2 from building a program, and winning their way to a national championship. It's starting to come across as whining. Is BYU whining, complaining, or otherwise thinking that it's all over but the crying if they do not get an invite to the P2? No, they, like all of the schools in the B12, are working to get good coaching, recruiting good players, and building their programs. The stadiums are full, the fan support continues to be off the charts, and the optimism is deafening. It's not like any school currently in the B12 god the national media numbers the ND's, OSU's FSU's Bama's and others got to begin with. Nor, did they ever get the polling numbers unless they beat the Texas's and OU's anyway. They will however, get their champion in the playoffs, and there will be years that they get two in a 12 team format. Life is good out here in flyover. Really don't know what you guys continue to complain about.

so you can stop thinking I or anyone else here is "whining." People on this board are not stupid. Nobody here thinks VT is Ohio State. We understand the difference between the programs, especially in terms of money and inherent bias from the media. Let's set aside the fact that everything was already skewed in favor of the Ohio States before. Let's also set aside the fact that things are even more skewed in favor of the Ohio States with entirely unregulated NIL, no transfer restrictions, and media contracts that pay them double what VT and the rest of its conference membership gets. Let's also set aside the fact that the talking heads on ESPN and FOX are actively denigrating non-SEC and B1G teams every day of the season, and that ACC and Big 12 teams overwhelmingly play their games on ESPN2, ESPNU, the ACCN, or streaming-exclusive, and never on free OTA broadcast unless it's the CW. All those enormous issues notwithstanding, here's the real problem - are you ready? In a 12 team CFP field, 8-9 of those 12 spots are going to go to SEC or B1G programs, every single year. So, a Big 12 program like BYU, who has done everything it possibly could to win the Big 12, gets slotted in the CFP, where it then has to turn around and win at least three straight games against a field of 8-9 SEC and B1G programs, who get double the media money, and who can cherry pick the best players from any other programs' rosters they want, every season. That's the problem, and it's why you will NEVER, and I mean NEVER, see an ACC or Big 12 team win the CFP under the current or any similar format. It absolutely will not happen. It would be like expecting Exeter City to win the UEFA Champions League. I hope this helps you understand why everyone on here doesn't share your Pollyanna mindset when it comes to the current state of the sport. Unless you are in the SEC or B1G, things are now 100% WORSE for you than they were, not better. You have, in practical terms, been completely frozen out from winning the CFP.

posts, and it is in my view the best conference realignment board top to bottom out there. If I even considered the idea that the posters here were stupid, i assure you, I wouldn't be here. Second, your assertion that the SEC and BOG will get 8-9 bids in a 12 team playoff is a purely emotional argument. The sky is falling comes to mind, and yes, the constant drumbeat that it's all over but the crying, is coming across as whining. I whole heartily disagree with your take in that regard. When the SEC and BIG get 8 invites in a 12 team playoff, I will be the first in line to post that I was wrong, and Baltimore was right. You make a LOT of assumptions about NIL, the transfer portal, and in all likelihood, how players will be paid (assumption on my part). Those issues will be worked out over time, and we will land in a place where we know what we are up against. Currently, it's the wild west on those issues, and to assume the worst at this stage of the game is premature. VT and K-State (examples please), have never been in a position to compete financially with the blue bloods. Why in the world do you think it should be different now?

ready to go on December 8. I can assure you that you are definitely going to need it, since they're already openly talking about the selection of 3- and 4-loss SEC teams to the at-large field on College Gameday. If they're going to slot 3- and 4-loss SEC and B1G teams, tell me, where exactly do you think all the extra at-large slots for the 1- and 2-loss ACC and Big 12 teams are going to come from? Thin air? It's not an emotional argument, it's an argument that understands very basic math. There will be one team each in the CFP from the ACC, Big 12, and G5, and the rest of the slots are going to be made up of P2 teams and Notre Dame. You can 100%, with zero doubt, take that straight TO THE BANK. Also, your last paragraph comes off as extremely naive and demonstrates that you have not yet acknowledged the reality of the new paradigm. If you will go back and read my last post, you will notice my assertion that I and everyone else on this board understand completely that VT will never compete, in terms of finance or branding, with Ohio State. However, under the old paradigm, Ohio State had to basically go undefeated or only lose one game to even get a chance to play for the national championship. Now, a 3- or 4-loss Ohio State is going to get that chance basically every single year. And a scrappy underdog program punching above its weight class no longer gets to go one round with Goliath and win the whole enchilada. That's been gone since 2014. But, even then, the Little Mac program only had to beat the Tysons twice. Now, a Big 12 or ACC program is looking at winning three or four straight games against programs that are making twice the media money they are while also cherry picking all the best players from their rosters every season. And, on top of all that, it's not just the Ohio State's and Alabama's with all that extra money now - the program that comes in dead last in the B1G or SEC, that may not have won a game all year, STILL makes DOUBLE the money that any ACC or Big 12 program does, in an era where you have to PAY THE PLAYERS or they LEAVE. So, YES, it's different now - it's much, much WORSE unless you're a member of the cartel. ** Edited by Baltimore_Hokie at 11/18/2024, 3:40:14 PM

playoff spots. In the past, how many times did the SEC and BIG have 50% of the playoff spots. Often enough that it's not much different than the past. If a two loss team makes the SEC championship and loses? There is a compelling argument for that team to get in. Remember TCU? They didn't count their loss in a championship game against them, and they still got the playoff bid. That is the only way I see a 3 loss team getting into the playoffs. one that lost their 3rd in the SEC or BIG championship.

in the very first year of the 12-team format, at least one of which that will not have even played in the conference championship game. You certainly bring a different perspective to this board, which is worthwhile; but, you really sound sometimes like someone that has completely ignored everything that has happened during the last decade of the sport.

loss SEC teams getting in the playoff over 1-2 loss B12 and ACC teams? You think that’s fine even though there are very few cross conference games where they can prove it? Heck Vandy beat Bama, the portal has changed teams immensely.

** Edited by Stech at 11/18/2024, 1:02:53 PM

But unfortunately, your record says who you are.

each year, and there are not enough out of conference games to establish who could beat who. As Saban said yesterday, the Transfer Portal has weakened teams that dominated in the past because their second string just transfer. The lack of cross over games is a huge problem. How do we know that Miami and SMU could not beat some of the SEC mentioned playoff teams? We don’t, know because they are not playing each other. So we have your opinion and everybody else’s opinion with very limited objective facts to form those opinions. The Sweet 16 has teams no one expected to advance that far every year. ** Edited by Stech at 11/17/2024, 10:29:51 AM

I don't think SMU could. Not because SMU couldn't or wouldn't compete in the playoffs, but because of the inherent bias in the polls. A two loss -Ohio State would be a lock as an at large, but a two loss Indiana not so much. It is the subjectivity of the polls, especially in the preseason, that makes it very difficult for a non named brand or blue blood to achieve the ranking that would get an at large. The difference now, is that a one loss Boise State has a legit chance to show their worth in an expanded playoff, and a two loss B12 team will get in as well if BYU doesn't win out. That would never have happened before, and while the deck continues to be stacked against the non blue bloods, some teams that would never have been given the opportunity before, will now have to be beat on the field. All the money imbalance does not change that fact for now, and from my perspective, it does make the regular season much more interesting for teams that may have started slow, but are playing at their peak at the end of the season. If they can find a way where the money imbalance does not allow teams to buy players, then we at least have a chance of a competitive field moving forward. it was not uncommon for either the SEC or BIG to get 50% of the playoff positions in the past. Today, 4 spots gives them 1/3 of the playoff spots, and with the consolidation of the blue bloods, there will be opportunities for those not in the P2.

possibility (shall I say reality?) that a 3-loss SEC team receives an at-large bid over a 1-loss ACC or Big XII team.

created cupcake scheduling which will squeeze out a 3 loss SEC team. Does anyone NOT think that Texas, Bama, UGA, Miss aren't top 8-level teams? I'd put Tenn top 10. I think South Carolina is top 12.

We have such an inferiority problem… smh ** Edited by ombandit at 11/16/2024, 2:55:41 PM

It has nothing to do with an inferiority complex; it has everything to do with the fact that Disney and FOX are going to insist that the field be populated with the programs they're actually paying for.

Just reality.

and of course the past track record. I hope you prove me wrong, but I sincerely doubt the ACC gets more than one team, and the SEC gets 3-5 teams. We will know soon enough ombandit.

conference because ESPN's opinion is the only one that matters since they are writing the checks. If ESPN wants it that way, then the Playoff Committee will find a way to make it happen. You don't bite the hand that feeds you unless you want to go hungry.

No way there will be a 1-loss team other than the conference champ

least two losses. A 3 loss SEC or BIG team will not get in over a one loss ACC or B12 team - ever.

Even if it doesn't happen this year, I wouldn't bet the farm that it won't happen at some point. Based on what happened last year with FSU, a pretty good tell is what narrative ESPN has its people push on the various broadcasts.