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Joined: 10/30/2003
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Flanker

I hope we agree that .300 is really bad for predictions.

85% accuracy is the percentage that would convince me that recruiting rankings are worth following. The five stars are over ninety percent so that tells me that the predictions for five stars are pretty accurate. I take issue with the predictive value for lower rated recruits since roughly fifty percent of the four and three star prospects do not meet expectations. There are also a lot of lower-rated recruits who develop into great players. Overall, I don't think these services can accurately predict which players will develop into successful players at the next level. That's why I assert that the best way to rank recruiting classes is to review them five years later. I was inspired to do this after seeing Andy Bitter's columns that ranked Tech recruiting classes after five years.
Posted: 06/20/2026 at 10:56 AM ET
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)

Thread Replies (56)

Full Thread →
Flanker • 06/19/26 10:54 AM ET
I give you credit for using your VT statistics degree for us.
VaTechie • 06/19/26 08:30 PM ET
I take issue with page 71, paragraph 5, sentence 3.**
Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie • 06/19/26 06:54 PM ET
Wow I think you defended your thesis well. I will try to consolidate all
uber hokie • 06/19/26 06:36 PM ET
Let's talk about these talented players in five years.
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:31 AM ET
I gave this a like because it was…
VPI63 • 06/19/26 06:24 PM ET
You can click on the link at the bottom to see the previous year's analysis
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:33 AM ET
hmmmmmm... so, yer sayin' thar's a, chance?
bourbonstreet • 06/19/26 06:21 PM ET
I put the percentages below for the nine year period
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:37 AM ET
Agree with you or not, I have to admire the amount of work you put in**
HokieNL • 06/19/26 02:32 PM ET
Credibiltiy check: You said VT has better contributors than Ohio State. **
Techsupport • 06/19/26 02:00 PM ET
FWIW, the entire notion that HS recruiting is a revenue stream...
Beerman • 06/19/26 01:10 PM ET
You seem to be an expert in recruiting
Hardcore_Hokie • 06/19/26 12:31 PM ET
Nobody can accurately predict with certainty the success of the recruits
Flanker • 06/19/26 01:06 PM ET
I guess I don’t understand how this suggests Star ratings
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 11:26 AM ET
^^^This right here^^^ Hammer meets nail! @Flanker lots of great
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 03:47 PM ET
Here’s a quick synopsis of the estimating small proportions
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 05:35 PM ET
P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years
Flanker • 06/20/26 04:57 PM ET
@Flanker I'd like to see your contribution metric for 3 and 4 stars
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 08:57 PM ET
Here you go
Flanker • 06/21/26 10:09 AM ET
TY - Have a great Fathers day if appropriate!
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 10:50 AM ET
My rebuttal
Flanker • 06/21/26 11:17 AM ET
OK - keep on chuggin those numbers out as a historian/auditor 5 yrs later -
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 04:37 PM ET
I'm doing one more year so I'll have TEN years of data.
Flanker • 06/21/26 06:49 PM ET
10-4 TY - The Athletic reranked with the benefit of history and only 11
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 07:05 PM ET
The fact is.......
2hhoop3 • 06/21/26 07:22 PM ET
Here is a great article too**
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 03:48 PM ET
Interesting but I object to some of their methods and conclusions
Flanker • 06/21/26 11:24 AM ET
Let me explain
Flanker • 06/19/26 11:46 AM ET
If attrition rates include transfer portal I’m surprised it’s not higher
uber hokie • 06/19/26 06:28 PM ET
This is a bit like deciding you don't want to use a couple
BuffaloTraceHokie • 06/19/26 04:14 PM ET
Need a bunch of 4s for sure
crazylane • 06/19/26 10:37 PM ET
Too many four stars are overrated
Flanker • 06/20/26 08:48 AM ET
If you're not getting you're share of 4 stars(double digits maybe)
crazylane • 06/20/26 04:40 PM ET
This analysis says dont worry - 3's are just as good if not better than 4's
U2Hokie • 06/22/26 07:16 AM ET
Good analogy
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:13 PM ET
I appreciate the response. And I won't go into it here, but...
BuffaloTraceHokie • 06/24/26 09:49 AM ET
What do you mean by attrition rate? **
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 12:48 PM ET
All that means is that base rates of success are
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 04:24 PM ET
The rankings are certainly unreliable
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:54 AM ET
I don’t know anyone who thinks the predictive validity
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 09:01 AM ET
It sounds like we might agree that the rankings are unreliable
Flanker • 06/20/26 09:15 AM ET
You just plucked an arbitrary number out of thin air.
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 10:00 AM ET
So you're happy with 50% accuracy?
Flanker • 06/20/26 10:43 AM ET
Also the NFL Draft is BS, the NBA Draft is BS, Stock Market is BS.
Hardcore_Hokie • 06/20/26 04:21 PM ET
The percentage you set.....
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 09:43 AM ET
I hope we agree that .300 is really bad for predictions. ◄
Flanker • 06/20/26 10:56 AM ET
Everyone should do.....
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 11:16 AM ET
I conducted an AUDIT and the recruiting service algorithms FAILED.
Flanker • 06/20/26 05:13 PM ET
You can see yourself ......
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 06:00 PM ET
Sorry about that. I meant recruits that don't contribute.
Flanker • 06/19/26 12:55 PM ET
I'll save you some time. You don't need to look at any other year.
UEMcGill • 06/19/26 11:02 AM ET
I'm doing one more year. I'll just find other ways to waste time.
Flanker • 06/19/26 01:08 PM ET
I sometimes wonder if the schools they select is another variable.
TekkNerd • 06/19/26 11:19 AM ET
Picking the school with the best scheme and coaches is important.
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:17 PM ET
I agree with this assessment. If a 4 star player is
vthogon • 06/19/26 12:57 PM ET
High School Recruiting Rankings are meant to be a projection.
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:23 PM ET