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Joined: 10/30/2003
Posts: 1,583
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Flanker

So you're happy with 50% accuracy?

I'm just trying to let people know that 50% of these recruits will not meet expectations for various reasons. It could be off-field issues, medical issues or they could have peaked in high school. I'm also pointing out a lot of late bloomers who develop into solid players or superstars. In the academic world, 85 is a solid B while 50 is an F. I would argue that it is not possible to predict human behavior so why bother? Hindsight is 20/20 so I can analyze the recruit lists five years later and state with 100% accuracy which recruits lived up to their expectations. Recruiting rankings are not reliable so I assert that they are BS! RECRUITING RANKINGS ARE BS!
Posted: 06/20/2026 at 10:43 AM ET
(In response to this post by Pride_and_Joy)

Thread Replies (56)

Full Thread →
Flanker • 06/19/26 10:54 AM ET
I give you credit for using your VT statistics degree for us.
VaTechie • 06/19/26 08:30 PM ET
I take issue with page 71, paragraph 5, sentence 3.**
Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie • 06/19/26 06:54 PM ET
Wow I think you defended your thesis well. I will try to consolidate all
uber hokie • 06/19/26 06:36 PM ET
Let's talk about these talented players in five years.
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:31 AM ET
I gave this a like because it was…
VPI63 • 06/19/26 06:24 PM ET
You can click on the link at the bottom to see the previous year's analysis
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:33 AM ET
hmmmmmm... so, yer sayin' thar's a, chance?
bourbonstreet • 06/19/26 06:21 PM ET
I put the percentages below for the nine year period
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:37 AM ET
Agree with you or not, I have to admire the amount of work you put in**
HokieNL • 06/19/26 02:32 PM ET
Credibiltiy check: You said VT has better contributors than Ohio State. **
Techsupport • 06/19/26 02:00 PM ET
FWIW, the entire notion that HS recruiting is a revenue stream...
Beerman • 06/19/26 01:10 PM ET
You seem to be an expert in recruiting
Hardcore_Hokie • 06/19/26 12:31 PM ET
Nobody can accurately predict with certainty the success of the recruits
Flanker • 06/19/26 01:06 PM ET
I guess I don’t understand how this suggests Star ratings
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 11:26 AM ET
^^^This right here^^^ Hammer meets nail! @Flanker lots of great
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 03:47 PM ET
Here’s a quick synopsis of the estimating small proportions
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 05:35 PM ET
P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years
Flanker • 06/20/26 04:57 PM ET
@Flanker I'd like to see your contribution metric for 3 and 4 stars
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 08:57 PM ET
Here you go
Flanker • 06/21/26 10:09 AM ET
TY - Have a great Fathers day if appropriate!
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 10:50 AM ET
My rebuttal
Flanker • 06/21/26 11:17 AM ET
OK - keep on chuggin those numbers out as a historian/auditor 5 yrs later -
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 04:37 PM ET
I'm doing one more year so I'll have TEN years of data.
Flanker • 06/21/26 06:49 PM ET
10-4 TY - The Athletic reranked with the benefit of history and only 11
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 07:05 PM ET
The fact is.......
2hhoop3 • 06/21/26 07:22 PM ET
Here is a great article too**
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 03:48 PM ET
Interesting but I object to some of their methods and conclusions
Flanker • 06/21/26 11:24 AM ET
Let me explain
Flanker • 06/19/26 11:46 AM ET
If attrition rates include transfer portal I’m surprised it’s not higher
uber hokie • 06/19/26 06:28 PM ET
This is a bit like deciding you don't want to use a couple
BuffaloTraceHokie • 06/19/26 04:14 PM ET
Need a bunch of 4s for sure
crazylane • 06/19/26 10:37 PM ET
Too many four stars are overrated
Flanker • 06/20/26 08:48 AM ET
If you're not getting you're share of 4 stars(double digits maybe)
crazylane • 06/20/26 04:40 PM ET
This analysis says dont worry - 3's are just as good if not better than 4's
U2Hokie • 06/22/26 07:16 AM ET
Good analogy
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:13 PM ET
I appreciate the response. And I won't go into it here, but...
BuffaloTraceHokie • 06/24/26 09:49 AM ET
What do you mean by attrition rate? **
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 12:48 PM ET
All that means is that base rates of success are
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 04:24 PM ET
The rankings are certainly unreliable
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:54 AM ET
I don’t know anyone who thinks the predictive validity
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 09:01 AM ET
It sounds like we might agree that the rankings are unreliable
Flanker • 06/20/26 09:15 AM ET
You just plucked an arbitrary number out of thin air.
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 10:00 AM ET
So you're happy with 50% accuracy? ◄
Flanker • 06/20/26 10:43 AM ET
Also the NFL Draft is BS, the NBA Draft is BS, Stock Market is BS.
Hardcore_Hokie • 06/20/26 04:21 PM ET
The percentage you set.....
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 09:43 AM ET
I hope we agree that .300 is really bad for predictions.
Flanker • 06/20/26 10:56 AM ET
Everyone should do.....
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 11:16 AM ET
I conducted an AUDIT and the recruiting service algorithms FAILED.
Flanker • 06/20/26 05:13 PM ET
You can see yourself ......
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 06:00 PM ET
Sorry about that. I meant recruits that don't contribute.
Flanker • 06/19/26 12:55 PM ET
I'll save you some time. You don't need to look at any other year.
UEMcGill • 06/19/26 11:02 AM ET
I'm doing one more year. I'll just find other ways to waste time.
Flanker • 06/19/26 01:08 PM ET
I sometimes wonder if the schools they select is another variable.
TekkNerd • 06/19/26 11:19 AM ET
Picking the school with the best scheme and coaches is important.
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:17 PM ET
I agree with this assessment. If a 4 star player is
vthogon • 06/19/26 12:57 PM ET
High School Recruiting Rankings are meant to be a projection.
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:23 PM ET