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Joined: 10/30/2003
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Flanker

Too many four stars are overrated

I don't think there is a significant difference between the four stars and the three stars. My 2012-2020 analysis shows that 53% of the four stars become contributors compared to 59% of the three stars. Many of the players' careers end prematurely due to off-field incidents and injuries that cannot be predicted. In most years, the top five four stars do not overshadow the top five lower rated recruits in Virginia. The four stars get drafted at a higher but that doesn't mean they make the roster. I calculated the average NFL seasons player per star rating and there wasn't a significant difference among the three star categories. Five stars averaged 5.3 years. Four stars averaged 4.6 years and three stars averaged 4.4 years. The two stars averaged 3.0 years. Many of the players' careers have not ended so the numbers would change in future years. I'll take some of the underrated prospects like the ones below. UNRATED VT Jerod Evans, VU Diego Pavia, VT Bhayshul Tuten, VT Marcellous Hawkins TWO STAR IU Fernando Mendoza, UGA Stetson Bennett, VT Kamari Copeland THREE STAR OU Baker Mayfield
Posted: 06/20/2026 at 08:48 AM ET
(In response to this post by crazylane)

Thread Replies (56)

Full Thread →
Flanker • 06/19/26 10:54 AM ET
I give you credit for using your VT statistics degree for us.
VaTechie • 06/19/26 08:30 PM ET
I take issue with page 71, paragraph 5, sentence 3.**
Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie • 06/19/26 06:54 PM ET
Wow I think you defended your thesis well. I will try to consolidate all
uber hokie • 06/19/26 06:36 PM ET
Let's talk about these talented players in five years.
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:31 AM ET
I gave this a like because it was…
VPI63 • 06/19/26 06:24 PM ET
You can click on the link at the bottom to see the previous year's analysis
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:33 AM ET
hmmmmmm... so, yer sayin' thar's a, chance?
bourbonstreet • 06/19/26 06:21 PM ET
I put the percentages below for the nine year period
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:37 AM ET
Agree with you or not, I have to admire the amount of work you put in**
HokieNL • 06/19/26 02:32 PM ET
Credibiltiy check: You said VT has better contributors than Ohio State. **
Techsupport • 06/19/26 02:00 PM ET
FWIW, the entire notion that HS recruiting is a revenue stream...
Beerman • 06/19/26 01:10 PM ET
You seem to be an expert in recruiting
Hardcore_Hokie • 06/19/26 12:31 PM ET
Nobody can accurately predict with certainty the success of the recruits
Flanker • 06/19/26 01:06 PM ET
I guess I don’t understand how this suggests Star ratings
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 11:26 AM ET
^^^This right here^^^ Hammer meets nail! @Flanker lots of great
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 03:47 PM ET
Here’s a quick synopsis of the estimating small proportions
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 05:35 PM ET
P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years
Flanker • 06/20/26 04:57 PM ET
@Flanker I'd like to see your contribution metric for 3 and 4 stars
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 08:57 PM ET
Here you go
Flanker • 06/21/26 10:09 AM ET
TY - Have a great Fathers day if appropriate!
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 10:50 AM ET
My rebuttal
Flanker • 06/21/26 11:17 AM ET
OK - keep on chuggin those numbers out as a historian/auditor 5 yrs later -
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 04:37 PM ET
I'm doing one more year so I'll have TEN years of data.
Flanker • 06/21/26 06:49 PM ET
10-4 TY - The Athletic reranked with the benefit of history and only 11
U2Hokie • 06/21/26 07:05 PM ET
The fact is.......
2hhoop3 • 06/21/26 07:22 PM ET
Here is a great article too**
U2Hokie • 06/20/26 03:48 PM ET
Interesting but I object to some of their methods and conclusions
Flanker • 06/21/26 11:24 AM ET
Let me explain
Flanker • 06/19/26 11:46 AM ET
If attrition rates include transfer portal I’m surprised it’s not higher
uber hokie • 06/19/26 06:28 PM ET
This is a bit like deciding you don't want to use a couple
BuffaloTraceHokie • 06/19/26 04:14 PM ET
Need a bunch of 4s for sure
crazylane • 06/19/26 10:37 PM ET
Too many four stars are overrated ◄
Flanker • 06/20/26 08:48 AM ET
If you're not getting you're share of 4 stars(double digits maybe)
crazylane • 06/20/26 04:40 PM ET
This analysis says dont worry - 3's are just as good if not better than 4's
U2Hokie • 06/22/26 07:16 AM ET
Good analogy
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:13 PM ET
I appreciate the response. And I won't go into it here, but...
BuffaloTraceHokie • 06/24/26 09:49 AM ET
What do you mean by attrition rate? **
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 12:48 PM ET
All that means is that base rates of success are
Pride_and_Joy • 06/19/26 04:24 PM ET
The rankings are certainly unreliable
Flanker • 06/20/26 06:54 AM ET
I don’t know anyone who thinks the predictive validity
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 09:01 AM ET
It sounds like we might agree that the rankings are unreliable
Flanker • 06/20/26 09:15 AM ET
You just plucked an arbitrary number out of thin air.
Pride_and_Joy • 06/20/26 10:00 AM ET
So you're happy with 50% accuracy?
Flanker • 06/20/26 10:43 AM ET
Also the NFL Draft is BS, the NBA Draft is BS, Stock Market is BS.
Hardcore_Hokie • 06/20/26 04:21 PM ET
The percentage you set.....
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 09:43 AM ET
I hope we agree that .300 is really bad for predictions.
Flanker • 06/20/26 10:56 AM ET
Everyone should do.....
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 11:16 AM ET
I conducted an AUDIT and the recruiting service algorithms FAILED.
Flanker • 06/20/26 05:13 PM ET
You can see yourself ......
2hhoop3 • 06/20/26 06:00 PM ET
Sorry about that. I meant recruits that don't contribute.
Flanker • 06/19/26 12:55 PM ET
I'll save you some time. You don't need to look at any other year.
UEMcGill • 06/19/26 11:02 AM ET
I'm doing one more year. I'll just find other ways to waste time.
Flanker • 06/19/26 01:08 PM ET
I sometimes wonder if the schools they select is another variable.
TekkNerd • 06/19/26 11:19 AM ET
Picking the school with the best scheme and coaches is important.
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:17 PM ET
I agree with this assessment. If a 4 star player is
vthogon • 06/19/26 12:57 PM ET
High School Recruiting Rankings are meant to be a projection.
Flanker • 06/19/26 05:23 PM ET