theory was designed to really evaluate a recruiting class. I think it was designed to help fans put things into perspective. FWIW I first heard of the theory from late great John Gagliardi (RIP) during an interview have gave in the 1980s or '90s when he was at St. John's (MN). He may have originated the theory, but I suspect he heard it from someone else who probably heard it from someone else and so on. Since he started coaching in the 1940s, the reporter asked him to share his thoughts on the idea that HS recruiting was becoming a big business (the reporters actual words were "potential big business"). The follow-up question asked him "As a coach, how does recruiting rankings influence your interaction with the fans?" That's where John mentioned the Rule of Thirds because fans shouldn't get too hung up on a team's class rank or even a player's rank since no team will never have a class of extremes (all recruits either exceed expectations or underachieve). It will always be some combination in the middle. I would say that is probably a true statement even for teams that only recruit 5 or 4-star players. The Blue Bloods will never have a recruiting class where all the players start as true FR and are multi-year starters until they declare early for the NFL. Some players will end up sitting and waiting. While others will transfer at some point because they are tired of "waiting for their turn to start." If they opt to remain at the school, then there are some who spent their entire time as a back-up/platoon player. Technically those players may not have lived up to the 5-star hype. However, people also have to remember that team is splitting a hair that is a lot finer than a team that includes 3-star and 2-star recruits.