All Hokie, All the Time. Period. Presented by First Bank & Trust Company

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Joined: 10/30/2003
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P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years

P&J's post cited the stats from one year but I analyzed NINE years. P&J's data is accurate for one year and that does not match the findings of the nine years. Did you even read the report? I posted the findings below. My overall position is that the recruiting rankings are unreliable when 40% or more of the recruits in a typical class will not contribute. Of the 2012 - 2020 VA Top 25 VA HS recruits on 247 Sports, 92% of the TWELVE five star recruits contributed to their programs. 53% of the SEVENTY-NINE four star recruits contributed to their programs and 59% of the 130 three star recruits contributed to their programs. A player is deemed a contributor if they achieve significant snaps, starts and stats during one or more seasons. I already know about the recruiting ranking star systems. I've been following recruiting for over thirty years. I've analyzed the recruits in Virginia over NINE years and I've analyzed the recruits at Virginia Tech over EIGHT years. I haven't posted the Virginia Tech analysis yet but that should be enlightening. Marcus Vick is a perfect example of an overrated five star recruit. The guy had decent physical skills but he made poor decisions on an off the field. The five star recruited are predicted to be drafted on the first day of the NFL draft and Marcus Vick didn't get drafted at all. Hindsight is 20/20 so I know five years later which recruits are busts and which recruits overachieved. I came up with the contribution system and I'm doing one more year with it. You can develop your own ranking system. People are free to ignore my analysis and look at the lists of players and their accomplishments. I have also added NFL analysis to my reports as an independent measure since a lot of people do not my contribution methods. People might not believe me if I say that a recruit was underrated but they'll take notice is was drafted by the NFL and is preparing for their sixth NFL season. I am not estimating who makes it to the NFL. I can clearly identify who made it to NFL after five years and I'm also attempting to track the average number of seasons by the number of stars. I'm a historian or an auditor review these ranking for accuracy. I don't believe that recruiting services can predict with sufficient accuracy the future success of high school recruits. RECRUiTING RANKINGS ARE BS!!!!!!
Posted: 06/20/2026 at 04:57 PM ET
(In response to this post by U2Hokie)

Thread Replies (56)

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Flanker 06/19/26 10:54 AM ET
I give you credit for using your VT statistics degree for us.
VaTechie 06/19/26 08:30 PM ET
I take issue with page 71, paragraph 5, sentence 3.**
Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie 06/19/26 06:54 PM ET
Wow I think you defended your thesis well. I will try to consolidate all
uber hokie 06/19/26 06:36 PM ET
Let's talk about these talented players in five years.
Flanker 06/20/26 06:31 AM ET
I gave this a like because it was…
VPI63 06/19/26 06:24 PM ET
You can click on the link at the bottom to see the previous year's analysis
Flanker 06/20/26 06:33 AM ET
hmmmmmm... so, yer sayin' thar's a, chance?
bourbonstreet 06/19/26 06:21 PM ET
I put the percentages below for the nine year period
Flanker 06/20/26 06:37 AM ET
Agree with you or not, I have to admire the amount of work you put in**
HokieNL 06/19/26 02:32 PM ET
Credibiltiy check: You said VT has better contributors than Ohio State. **
Techsupport 06/19/26 02:00 PM ET
FWIW, the entire notion that HS recruiting is a revenue stream...
Beerman 06/19/26 01:10 PM ET
You seem to be an expert in recruiting
Hardcore_Hokie 06/19/26 12:31 PM ET
Nobody can accurately predict with certainty the success of the recruits
Flanker 06/19/26 01:06 PM ET
I guess I don’t understand how this suggests Star ratings
Pride_and_Joy 06/19/26 11:26 AM ET
^^^This right here^^^ Hammer meets nail! @Flanker lots of great
U2Hokie 06/20/26 03:47 PM ET
Here’s a quick synopsis of the estimating small proportions
Pride_and_Joy 06/20/26 05:35 PM ET
P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years
Flanker 06/20/26 04:57 PM ET
@Flanker I'd like to see your contribution metric for 3 and 4 stars
U2Hokie 06/20/26 08:57 PM ET
Here you go
Flanker 06/21/26 10:09 AM ET
TY - Have a great Fathers day if appropriate!
U2Hokie 06/21/26 10:50 AM ET
My rebuttal
Flanker 06/21/26 11:17 AM ET
OK - keep on chuggin those numbers out as a historian/auditor 5 yrs later -
U2Hokie 06/21/26 04:37 PM ET
I'm doing one more year so I'll have TEN years of data.
Flanker 06/21/26 06:49 PM ET
10-4 TY - The Athletic reranked with the benefit of history and only 11
U2Hokie 06/21/26 07:05 PM ET
The fact is.......
2hhoop3 06/21/26 07:22 PM ET
Here is a great article too**
U2Hokie 06/20/26 03:48 PM ET
Interesting but I object to some of their methods and conclusions
Flanker 06/21/26 11:24 AM ET
Let me explain
Flanker 06/19/26 11:46 AM ET
If attrition rates include transfer portal I’m surprised it’s not higher
uber hokie 06/19/26 06:28 PM ET
This is a bit like deciding you don't want to use a couple
BuffaloTraceHokie 06/19/26 04:14 PM ET
Need a bunch of 4s for sure
crazylane 06/19/26 10:37 PM ET
Too many four stars are overrated
Flanker 06/20/26 08:48 AM ET
If you're not getting you're share of 4 stars(double digits maybe)
crazylane 06/20/26 04:40 PM ET
This analysis says dont worry - 3's are just as good if not better than 4's
U2Hokie 06/22/26 07:16 AM ET
Good analogy
Flanker 06/19/26 05:13 PM ET
I appreciate the response. And I won't go into it here, but...
BuffaloTraceHokie 06/24/26 09:49 AM ET
What do you mean by attrition rate? **
Pride_and_Joy 06/19/26 12:48 PM ET
All that means is that base rates of success are
Pride_and_Joy 06/19/26 04:24 PM ET
The rankings are certainly unreliable
Flanker 06/20/26 06:54 AM ET
I don’t know anyone who thinks the predictive validity
Pride_and_Joy 06/20/26 09:01 AM ET
It sounds like we might agree that the rankings are unreliable
Flanker 06/20/26 09:15 AM ET
You just plucked an arbitrary number out of thin air.
Pride_and_Joy 06/20/26 10:00 AM ET
So you're happy with 50% accuracy?
Flanker 06/20/26 10:43 AM ET
Also the NFL Draft is BS, the NBA Draft is BS, Stock Market is BS.
Hardcore_Hokie 06/20/26 04:21 PM ET
The percentage you set.....
2hhoop3 06/20/26 09:43 AM ET
I hope we agree that .300 is really bad for predictions.
Flanker 06/20/26 10:56 AM ET
Everyone should do.....
2hhoop3 06/20/26 11:16 AM ET
I conducted an AUDIT and the recruiting service algorithms FAILED.
Flanker 06/20/26 05:13 PM ET
You can see yourself ......
2hhoop3 06/20/26 06:00 PM ET
Sorry about that. I meant recruits that don't contribute.
Flanker 06/19/26 12:55 PM ET
I'll save you some time. You don't need to look at any other year.
UEMcGill 06/19/26 11:02 AM ET
I'm doing one more year. I'll just find other ways to waste time.
Flanker 06/19/26 01:08 PM ET
I sometimes wonder if the schools they select is another variable.
TekkNerd 06/19/26 11:19 AM ET
Picking the school with the best scheme and coaches is important.
Flanker 06/19/26 05:17 PM ET
I agree with this assessment. If a 4 star player is
vthogon 06/19/26 12:57 PM ET
High School Recruiting Rankings are meant to be a projection.
Flanker 06/19/26 05:23 PM ET