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P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years
P&J's post cited the stats from one year but I analyzed NINE years. P&J's data is accurate for one year and that does not match the findings of the nine years. Did you even read the report? I posted the findings below. My overall position is that the recruiting rankings are unreliable when 40% or more of the recruits in a typical class will not contribute.
Of the 2012 - 2020 VA Top 25 VA HS recruits on 247 Sports, 92% of the TWELVE five star recruits contributed to their programs. 53% of the SEVENTY-NINE four star recruits contributed to their programs and 59% of the 130 three star recruits contributed to their programs. A player is deemed a contributor if they achieve significant snaps, starts and stats during one or more seasons.
I already know about the recruiting ranking star systems. I've been following recruiting for over thirty years. I've analyzed the recruits in Virginia over NINE years and I've analyzed the recruits at Virginia Tech over EIGHT years. I haven't posted the Virginia Tech analysis yet but that should be enlightening.
Marcus Vick is a perfect example of an overrated five star recruit. The guy had decent physical skills but he made poor decisions
on an off the field. The five star recruited are predicted to be drafted on the first day of the NFL draft and Marcus Vick didn't get drafted at all.
Hindsight is 20/20 so I know five years later which recruits are busts and which recruits overachieved. I came up with the contribution system and I'm doing one more year with it. You can develop your own ranking system. People are free to ignore
my analysis and look at the lists of players and their accomplishments. I have also added NFL analysis to my reports as an independent measure since a lot of people do not my contribution methods. People might not believe me if I say that a recruit was underrated but they'll take notice is was drafted by the NFL and is preparing for their sixth NFL season.
I am not estimating who makes it to the NFL. I can clearly identify who made it to NFL after five years and I'm also attempting to
track the average number of seasons by the number of stars.
I'm a historian or an auditor review these ranking for accuracy. I don't believe that recruiting services can predict with sufficient accuracy the future success of high school recruits. RECRUiTING RANKINGS ARE BS!!!!!!
Thread Replies (56)
I give you credit for using your VT statistics degree for us.
-- VaTechie
Jun 19, 2026 at 08:30 PM ET
VaTechie
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06/19/26 08:30 PM ET
I take issue with page 71, paragraph 5, sentence 3.**
-- Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie
Jun 19, 2026 at 06:54 PM ET
Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie
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06/19/26 06:54 PM ET
Wow I think you defended your thesis well. I will try to consolidate all
-- uber hokie
Jun 19, 2026 at 06:36 PM ET
uber hokie
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06/19/26 06:36 PM ET
Let's talk about these talented players in five years.
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 06:31 AM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 06:31 AM ET
I gave this a like because it was…
-- VPI63
Jun 19, 2026 at 06:24 PM ET
VPI63
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06/19/26 06:24 PM ET
You can click on the link at the bottom to see the previous year's analysis
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 06:33 AM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 06:33 AM ET
hmmmmmm... so, yer sayin' thar's a, chance?
-- bourbonstreet
Jun 19, 2026 at 06:21 PM ET
bourbonstreet
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06/19/26 06:21 PM ET
I put the percentages below for the nine year period
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 06:37 AM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 06:37 AM ET
Agree with you or not, I have to admire the amount of work you put in**
-- HokieNL
Jun 19, 2026 at 02:32 PM ET
HokieNL
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06/19/26 02:32 PM ET
Credibiltiy check: You said VT has better contributors than Ohio State. **
-- Techsupport
Jun 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM ET
Techsupport
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06/19/26 02:00 PM ET
FWIW, the entire notion that HS recruiting is a revenue stream...
-- Beerman
Jun 19, 2026 at 01:10 PM ET
Beerman
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06/19/26 01:10 PM ET
You seem to be an expert in recruiting
-- Hardcore_Hokie
Jun 19, 2026 at 12:31 PM ET
Hardcore_Hokie
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06/19/26 12:31 PM ET
Nobody can accurately predict with certainty the success of the recruits
-- Flanker
Jun 19, 2026 at 01:06 PM ET
Flanker
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06/19/26 01:06 PM ET
I guess I don’t understand how this suggests Star ratings
-- Pride_and_Joy
Jun 19, 2026 at 11:26 AM ET
Pride_and_Joy
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06/19/26 11:26 AM ET
^^^This right here^^^ Hammer meets nail! @Flanker lots of great
-- U2Hokie
Jun 20, 2026 at 03:47 PM ET
U2Hokie
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06/20/26 03:47 PM ET
Here’s a quick synopsis of the estimating small proportions
-- Pride_and_Joy
Jun 20, 2026 at 05:35 PM ET
Pride_and_Joy
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06/20/26 05:35 PM ET
P&J only looked at ONE year instead of all NINE years
◄
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 04:57 PM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 04:57 PM ET
@Flanker I'd like to see your contribution metric for 3 and 4 stars
-- U2Hokie
Jun 20, 2026 at 08:57 PM ET
U2Hokie
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06/20/26 08:57 PM ET
TY - Have a great Fathers day if appropriate!
-- U2Hokie
Jun 21, 2026 at 10:50 AM ET
U2Hokie
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06/21/26 10:50 AM ET
OK - keep on chuggin those numbers out as a historian/auditor 5 yrs later -
-- U2Hokie
Jun 21, 2026 at 04:37 PM ET
U2Hokie
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06/21/26 04:37 PM ET
I'm doing one more year so I'll have TEN years of data.
-- Flanker
Jun 21, 2026 at 06:49 PM ET
Flanker
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06/21/26 06:49 PM ET
10-4 TY - The Athletic reranked with the benefit of history and only 11
-- U2Hokie
Jun 21, 2026 at 07:05 PM ET
U2Hokie
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06/21/26 07:05 PM ET
Interesting but I object to some of their methods and conclusions
-- Flanker
Jun 21, 2026 at 11:24 AM ET
Flanker
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06/21/26 11:24 AM ET
If attrition rates include transfer portal I’m surprised it’s not higher
-- uber hokie
Jun 19, 2026 at 06:28 PM ET
uber hokie
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06/19/26 06:28 PM ET
This is a bit like deciding you don't want to use a couple
-- BuffaloTraceHokie
Jun 19, 2026 at 04:14 PM ET
BuffaloTraceHokie
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06/19/26 04:14 PM ET
Need a bunch of 4s for sure
-- crazylane
Jun 19, 2026 at 10:37 PM ET
crazylane
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06/19/26 10:37 PM ET
Too many four stars are overrated
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 08:48 AM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 08:48 AM ET
If you're not getting you're share of 4 stars(double digits maybe)
-- crazylane
Jun 20, 2026 at 04:40 PM ET
crazylane
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06/20/26 04:40 PM ET
This analysis says dont worry - 3's are just as good if not better than 4's
-- U2Hokie
Jun 22, 2026 at 07:16 AM ET
U2Hokie
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06/22/26 07:16 AM ET
I appreciate the response. And I won't go into it here, but...
-- BuffaloTraceHokie
Jun 24, 2026 at 09:49 AM ET
BuffaloTraceHokie
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06/24/26 09:49 AM ET
What do you mean by attrition rate? **
-- Pride_and_Joy
Jun 19, 2026 at 12:48 PM ET
Pride_and_Joy
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06/19/26 12:48 PM ET
All that means is that base rates of success are
-- Pride_and_Joy
Jun 19, 2026 at 04:24 PM ET
Pride_and_Joy
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06/19/26 04:24 PM ET
The rankings are certainly unreliable
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 06:54 AM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 06:54 AM ET
I don’t know anyone who thinks the predictive validity
-- Pride_and_Joy
Jun 20, 2026 at 09:01 AM ET
Pride_and_Joy
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06/20/26 09:01 AM ET
It sounds like we might agree that the rankings are unreliable
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 09:15 AM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 09:15 AM ET
You just plucked an arbitrary number out of thin air.
-- Pride_and_Joy
Jun 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Pride_and_Joy
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06/20/26 10:00 AM ET
So you're happy with 50% accuracy?
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 10:43 AM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 10:43 AM ET
Also the NFL Draft is BS, the NBA Draft is BS, Stock Market is BS.
-- Hardcore_Hokie
Jun 20, 2026 at 04:21 PM ET
Hardcore_Hokie
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06/20/26 04:21 PM ET
I hope we agree that .300 is really bad for predictions.
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 10:56 AM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 10:56 AM ET
I conducted an AUDIT and the recruiting service algorithms FAILED.
-- Flanker
Jun 20, 2026 at 05:13 PM ET
Flanker
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06/20/26 05:13 PM ET
Sorry about that. I meant recruits that don't contribute.
-- Flanker
Jun 19, 2026 at 12:55 PM ET
Flanker
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06/19/26 12:55 PM ET
I'll save you some time. You don't need to look at any other year.
-- UEMcGill
Jun 19, 2026 at 11:02 AM ET
UEMcGill
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06/19/26 11:02 AM ET
I'm doing one more year. I'll just find other ways to waste time.
-- Flanker
Jun 19, 2026 at 01:08 PM ET
Flanker
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06/19/26 01:08 PM ET
I sometimes wonder if the schools they select is another variable.
-- TekkNerd
Jun 19, 2026 at 11:19 AM ET
TekkNerd
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06/19/26 11:19 AM ET
Picking the school with the best scheme and coaches is important.
-- Flanker
Jun 19, 2026 at 05:17 PM ET
Flanker
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06/19/26 05:17 PM ET
I agree with this assessment. If a 4 star player is
-- vthogon
Jun 19, 2026 at 12:57 PM ET
vthogon
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06/19/26 12:57 PM ET
High School Recruiting Rankings are meant to be a projection.
-- Flanker
Jun 19, 2026 at 05:23 PM ET
Flanker
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06/19/26 05:23 PM ET