Next conference opponent is Duke. They are 15-7 overall and 3-3 in the ACC
having lost a series vs. ND (at Duke 1-2) and won a series against Miami (at Duke 2-1). In their last game vs. Miami, Duke scored 20 runs. Overall, they are hitting 0.274 with an OPS of 0.890. They have scored 170 runs in 22 games (average of 7.7 runs per game). Of their 187 total hits, 73 have been for extra bases (slugging % of 0.483). They have struck out 184 times (8.4 times per game). The one stat that really stuck out to me is that they are 96-106 in stolen base attempts. That is good for 2nd in the country (the third place team isn't close to the Duke SB numbers).
Their pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.42 with a WHIP of 1.34. Their pitchers have pitched 185 innings and given up 153 hits, with 48 coming for extra bases (given up 18 HRs). They have struck out 199 batters, averaging 9 strikeouts per game; and allowed 94 walks overall (4.3 BB per game).
While Duke is no Georgia Tech or UVA, they will be a formidable opponent and a good measuring stick as to where we are in the ACC pecking order. Massey ranks Duke at No. 53 (VT is rated No. 60). Duke's SOS is No. 216, while VT has played a very difficult schedule to date with a SOS rank of No. 8.
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4mo
That's the name of the game this weekend. Their lineup is MUCH more manageable than GT and UVA and their pitching is very decent, but not loaded with studs like in years past. Their newly-hired pitching coach is former 2022 Hokie, Sean Fisher. He pitched at Maryland before coming to Tech, where he was recruited by Szefc as well.
Duke has stolen 98 bases. That's good for the most in the ACC and the 2nd place team (NC State with 54 SB) isn't close. This is obviously an identity that the Blue Devils are taking on under new coach Corey Muscara (previously Wake Forest pitching coach). We have unfortunately been pretty poor at catching guys stealing. As a team we're catching guys on the bases at a 21% clip. That's not great. It would be better if it were closer to 30%. As a team, Duke is not only racking up stolen bases, but they're extremely efficient (91% stolen bases per attempt). And it's not just one guy. Three players have double digit stolen bases already. An additional six players have 5 stolen bases or more. They're running out a full starting 9 of guys who can swipe a bag. For comparison, the Hokies don't have a single player with 5 stolen bases.
This weekend will go badly if we allow a lot of walks. We need to get back to the command we had at the start of the season, when walks were minimal. There's obviously some concern with two of our top starting pitchers in Ethan Grim and Brett Renfrow. Both left games early due to injury, which likely affected their results. We'll see who gets starts and how the open spots in the bullpen are covered. Note that the Hokies have the worst ERA in the ACC. You could argue they've had the toughest schedule of almost any team to start the season, but the pitching will have to improve soon or else this season has little hope.
My projections for the season included 1-2 series outcomes for the Texas tournament, GT, and UVA. We weren't far from achieving that. Now it's time to lock in and win some series. We need to probably win 6 of the next 8 ACC series to get into the tournament. The next 2 series are certainly circled as opportunities to pickup 4-5 wins in the conference. The hitting is warming up and Stieg is shoving on Sundays with Crowl locking it down late. LGH
(In response to this post by Nortazhokie)