a very apt metaphor for Whit Babcock's athletic department.

I think for Tech to feel safe, no midweek losses and sweeping Pitt and winning the UVA series. A series loss to Pitt would be a disaster and a series loss to uva would be the nail in the coffin. While the record and ranked W/L looks good, techs best series win is seriously fading fast (WF, who is below 500 in ACC). Other than that, the resume is pretty bare frankly, coupled with another mid season to end of year slump is not what you want to end the season. At a minimum, a series split is definite bubble, 0-2 and you’re out. For Virginia, it really feels it is coming down to two walk offs. This past Sunday against GT, the walk off really hurt, lost the sweep of a ranked team and RPI would’ve risen to the 50s with a win. On the walk off loss to NC State, that lost the series. NC State is surging and would be a premier “earn” it marker on the resume. Neither team (uva/vt) should feel good with GT and Wake being the premier wins.

at all (to this point). Wake is also not under .500 in the league. We just need to win the last two series'. Don't need to sweep Pitt, but you are correct a series loss there would be tough to overcome. SOS is very strong this year, number of quad 1 wins is top 3 (tied) in the country, and RPI is good. Last few mid week opponents are good enough RPI wise that a loss to one of them isn't going to create a severe drop (maybe outside of a loss to Marshall). It certainly depends on the finish and a lot of goodwill can go away with a very poor finish. And still very hard to tell how the conference records will be evaluated based on the size of the league now (compared to the past). Schedules are very different now internally (more so than the past). And that is something that will be evaluated differently than the past (this comment comes from speaking to a recently exited Vice Chair of the Selection Committee). Both schools (UVA and VT) will have a lot to play for. Miami's resurgence gives you guys a good opportunity to change the narrative from your end before heading to BBurg. I hope the final weekend is exciting and a lot on the line.

in the 10 non-Covid seasons, there have been 79 ACC teams that finished with a .500 or better conference record. 71 of those (91%) made it to the NCAAT. Of the 8 that didn't get in, 7 of them had RPI's of 55 or worse. Only 2017 Miami with a .552 conference win % and 43 RPI didn't get in as they went 15-14 in non-conference play. Said another way, historically speaking...if you have a .500 or better ACC conference record and have an RPI better than 55, you have a 99% chance of getting into the NCAAT. If we go 4-2 against Pitt and UVA, that would put us at .500 in the ACC with what has been a formidable ACC schedule. If you add in 4 wins against Mercer and Liberty who are currently in the 60-70 range in RPI, I assume our RPI will stay pretty flat to where we are currently at 37. If we go 3-3 against Pitt and UVA, but win out against our non-conference opponents, I don't think that is going to be quite enough as that would put us below .500 in the ACC. Since 2014, there have been 15 ACC teams that finished less than .500 in conference but better than a 50 RPI. Of those 15, 7 made it to the NCCAT and 8 missed out. Of the 7 that made it, 6 had a better than 30 RPI. Of the 8 that missed out, 7 had an RPI equal to or worse than 30. So history suggests we would need an RPI in the 20's to get in with a lower than .500 conference record. In the 3-3 Pitt/UVA scenario, I simply don't see our RPI climbing into the 20's and would likely fall into the 40's which would put us likely on the outside looking in from an NCAAT perspective.

We really need a win this weekend. I'd feel better with a sweep though going into the UVA series, where we could bury the Hoos tournament chances. Given our strong record against ranked opponents, we probably can get in at 15-15 in the conference. However, you really want to be > .500 to feel confident. There are teams who have gone 15-15 in years past who've made it and some who haven't. It'll be close and I don't think many analysts ever give Tech the benefit of the doubt.