VT Baseball Projected Offseason Roster Shifts…
With the transfer portal activity likely getting ready to heat up, I thought it would be interesting to see where our roster currently stands heading into next year and evaluate where and how much turnover we should expect.
Below is some analysis that includes a summary of expected changes and assumptions I used to build the view. Hopefully others find it interesting and feel free to share insight or comments.
Assumptions
• Assume Griffin Green moving on but he could return.
• Assume Christian Martin will return regardless of whether he is drafted or not.
• Assume Carson Ohl moving on as he was honored on senior night, but he is playing in summer leagues this year.
Summary
• We are currently 8 players over the 40-man roster limit not factoring in any transfer portal movement in or out.
• Most of our overage is with RHP (~7 over) and a smaller overage with IF (~2 over) while being ~1 under with OF.
• Based on historical averages, I think we’ll see 3 to 5 additions in the transfer portal and then 11 to 13 reductions across our returning and incoming players.
Expected Offseason Movement
• Catcher: We typically keep 3 catchers on the roster. We have 2 returning (Cooke, McCann) and 1 or 2 incoming depending on where the coaches slot Anderson French. Given our shortage of outfielders, I think the staff could slot French as a corner outfielder/DH and keep Perriello as our third catcher. If not, Perriello could be the odd man out.
• Infield: We typically average keeping 9 with a range from 8 to 11. We have 8 returning (assumes Martin returns) and 3 incoming (Harley, Kirtley, Lutterman), so we are potentially 2 players over likely available spots. I wouldn’t expect the staff to target any transfers with the hopes that Slade, Gibson or Harley could take over the starting 3B job. In terms of attrition, I think we could see one of our returning backups move on and then potentially one of our incoming freshmen middle infielders (Kirtley or Lutterman) battle for a roster spot.
• Outfield: We typically average keeping 6.5 with a range from 5 to 7. With all of our losses in the outfield, I would expect the coaching staff to target at least two transfer outfielders with one being a CF and then hope that Locurto or one of the incoming freshmen (French?) could secure the third starting role. I do think it’s also likely that we’ll see one returning or incoming player move on to make room for likely transfer additions.
• Right-Handed Pitchers: We typically average keeping 13.5 with a range from 12 to 14. We currently have a total of 21 expected for next year (12 returning, 9 incoming) so we will see a lot of attrition here. It will be interesting to see if some of our returners move on and if the staff chooses to pursue any transfers or if they decide to bank on some of our returners improving their performance. I think we’ll target keeping 14 so we’ll need to have a net reduction of 7. If we don’t add any transfers, expect to see 4 returning RHP and 3 incoming RHP not make the roster. Hopefully we can keep Renfrow and Stieg in the program and if Green were to return, we could have a solid rotation to build around and then would need to see if we can somehow cobble together better performing right-handers for the bullpen.
• Left-Handed Pitchers: We typically average keeping 8.3 with a range from 7 to 10. We had 7 last year and I think that’s how many we’ll carry in 2025 unless we can find multiple quality LHP in the transfer portal. Either way, we have 7 expected thus far (4 returning, 3 incoming) and I think we’ll see one LHP not make the roster and then expect to see us target at least 1 LHP in the portal.
Posted: 05/30/2024 at 09:21 AM ET
Thread Replies (5)
VT Baseball Projected Offseason Roster Shifts…
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-- QCP
May 30, 2024 at 09:21 AM ET
QCP
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05/30/24 09:21 AM ET
I think it is highly, highly unlikely Christian Martin returns. Think many
-- VTScoop
May 31, 2024 at 02:38 PM ET
VTScoop
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05/31/24 02:38 PM ET
Thanks as always Scoop! Bummer about Martin...I figured he would be
-- QCP
May 31, 2024 at 03:24 PM ET
QCP
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05/31/24 03:24 PM ET
To answer your question, I think it is a little too early to tell on that
-- VTScoop
May 31, 2024 at 08:20 PM ET
VTScoop
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05/31/24 08:20 PM ET
Good stuff as always. I wouldn't mind seeing more of a platoon at catcher
-- Nortazhokie
May 30, 2024 at 01:17 PM ET
Nortazhokie
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05/30/24 01:17 PM ET
Great stuff as always QCP. Provided all return we seem set at Catcher to
-- HokiePWC
May 30, 2024 at 11:35 AM ET
HokiePWC
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05/30/24 11:35 AM ET