Minnesota Study, Part 1: The Offense TSL Pass

 

It’s time for our special two-part bowl preview. PJ Fleck rows his boat into Charlotte with a solid Minnesota team that, like the Hokies, nearly had a spectacular signature win over a highly ranked team (Penn State, in this case) that came up just short. The Golden Gophers looked like a better team in the regular season than the Hokies, and they enter the Mayo-dome with more stability in the coaching staff and on the depth chart.

If this had been a regular season match-up, I think the Hokies would’ve had some things to work with, but with so many players gone and the coaching staff upended, the Gobblers are clear underdogs. We’ll focus on three of Minnesota’s games: a close late-season loss against common foe Rutgers, a wild one-point loss to Penn State, and a comfortable win over Wisconsin to end the regular season.

Offense

The Hokies don’t see too many schemes like this one. Greg Harbaugh (pronounced HAR-bo, and no relation to Jim and John) is in his second year running the show. He seemed to use more spread/gun stuff early in the season, though towards the end there was more of your traditional under-center scheme with deep progressions and very little option. Against the Hokies, the hinge of the offense might be the pairing of under-center Outside Zone and play-action movement passes:

In the first clip, Rutgers’ middle linebacker doesn’t get over quick enough to close his gap on the Outside Zone; he ends up nose-to-nose with the guard and can’t stretch the run. In the second clip, the defenders get dinged for overreacting. The Scarlet Knights are camping hard on the OZ, so much so that the back releases directly to the flat and no one picks him up. You can see the quarterback’s drop to the handoff is almost vertical, i.e., he isn’t angling towards the sideline to meet the back like you’d see on stretch OZ. This helps keep the defense honest because the same drop also can allow the QB to get an easy boot track on play-action with all the receivers running against the grain of the run.

Darius Taylor (RB, #1) is toting the rock in that first clip. He’s a very capable back who can hit the hole, show some power through tackles, make some tough catches, and has good eyes for zone. There’s a trend in his running that has him favoring the left side, though with his offensive line likely getting shook up a little, it probably won’t be much of a factor. He’s only a sophomore and isn’t in the portal, so it’s likely the Hokies will have to gird up for him. Second-stringer Marcus Major (#24) is similarly capable; that’s him getting the TD reception in the second clip.

After Taylor, the next piece of the puzzle is quarterback Max Brosmer (#16) playing field general. He’s an FCS All-American from the New Hampshire Wildcats who gets a lot of praise for playing the mental game, and you’ll see him checking a lot of plays at the line. Brosmer’s been quite a catch, being the rare FCS transfer whose PFF grade is considerably higher now (89.7) than it was at New Hampshire (low eighties/upper seventies). I’m guessing he gets a good look in the NFL, whether late-round or free agent. He’s got a nice rhythm with his release, which can be slightly sidearm, but nothing I think the Hokies can take advantage of. Watching him, his touch on the ball jumps out at me:

There’s too much pressure for him to wait on the Mesh concept to clear up, so he pops a shot to the back of the end zone that drops exactly where it needs to. You can also see him drop a lot of nice ones over the shoulder, and his backs never look like they struggle to pull in his passes.

While he doesn’t run a whole lot, he’s got some backfield wiggle:

That’s a great play, but I’m not sure he’s got the best bit of pocket sense to him, as there are times where he doesn’t look to move in the pocket as well as he could. But he’s not bad, either. On designed runs, they’ll show zone read looks with him, but he’s only got a handful of designed carries on the year; most of his damage is done scrambling. The Hokies have been better at handling mobile quarterbacks, so I don’t think we’ll see the Gophers try to spring too many surprises with him as a runner. That lack of a run threat allows linebackers to take deep drops, and Penn State got a nice pick against him that way.

Daniel Jackson (WR, #9) and Elijah Spencer (WR, #11) are Brosmer’s top targets. Here’s Jackson making room for one to fall into his shirt pocket:

That’s a tough grab right there, and his highlight reel is full of contested and one-hand grabs.

And here’s Spencer fighting for a catch:

At 6’0, 190, Jackson’s the smaller of the two, but he’s usually lined up wide. Spencer, at 6’2, 200 comes in lined up in the slot, which isn’t what you expect, though it’s often part of stacked sets, and he’ll end up being motioned wide, too. I like their hands and their ability to get separation. Minnesota seems to trust their passing game enough to where they’re fond of taking shots in short-yardage spots. The tight ends haven’t graded as well, but I’ve seen them make some nice catches, so don’t sleep on them. They’ll split out wide in trips sets and set up screens and stretched-out West Coast concepts like Spot and Snag; there’ve been a few mental lapses from the Hokies in sorting through bunch formations, so that’s something to keep an eye on.

The offensive line is more of a mixed bag, in part because their really good left tackle, Aireontae Ersery, declared for the draft. He was hurt in the final game of the season, which prompted Quinn Carroll (RT, #77) to flop over and take the spot. Carroll’s brother, Collin, was a good long-snapper for the Hokies, and lil’ bro Quinn was a top target, but the younger sibling ended up with Notre Dame before he got hurt and transferred to Minnesota. Quinn’s played all over the line this year, and he’s been good, but not as good as Ersery. If this were the regular season, I’d say the Hokies should put a bullseye on Quinn, but with APR getting ready for big-city ball, the Hokies probably don’t have anyone I’d trust to stress the tackle as he changes spots.

One thing to mention is that Carroll’s got some decent draft grades, so he might be a late bow-out, or at least prone to hitting the bench if he gets dinged. The rest of the line looks solid, but not scary. I’m not sure how much speed-demon ball they see from B10 defensive lines, so that might be a schematic plus for the Hokies.

I mentioned earlier that Minnesota has a nice one/two of under-center Outside Zone and naked bootleg. My two cents is that they’ll try it against the Hokies, because the Gophers won’t be as worried about pressure as they would be if Powell-Ryland and Peebles were still on the team, so it won’t be as worrisome having the QB so close to the LOS. Minnesota runs a pile of different plays from different formations, but from what I’ve seen, the best way to slow the offense down is by controlling this combo. That means first being sound against Outside Zone, whether that means stretching the play out or penetrating to close the play down and force an unwanted cutback. Against the pass, it means sending timely pressure or quickly recognizing the play in order to take advantage of the quarterback as he bends around with nothing but surprise and his wits to protect him:

In this clip, the boundary-side linebacker is the force player, and doesn’t have any coverage concerns because the tight end is staying in to block the defensive end crossing his face. Minnesota has three receivers running vertical routes, meaning they’re looking for a chunk-play, but it’ll take time. That means the timing’s right for the linebacker to get downhill. Notice he’s not blitzing—he shuffles with the run for a second but realizes it’s play-action. The slow-developing routes and his recognition combine for a big sack. Caleb Woodson would be in that spot for the Hokies, and if his play-recognition is sharp, he can cause that kind of havoc.

Now, I’m not sure if we’ll see the under-center attack, especially with Ersery out; much like Xavier Chaplin, he often locked down the edge on those OZ runs. If the Gophers do stay in the gun, we’ll likely see more Inside Zone and play-action/RPO off that. While that would let the Hokie linebackers see the backfield action more clearly, the trade-off is that parsing the mesh can give the OL more time to cause problems in the second level. Whatever Minnesota’s approach, the conventional wisdom of winning downs and dictating run/pass balance still matters. The Gophers aren’t an Air Raid team. Getting Minnesota behind the sticks puts them in the position of relying on conventional drop-back protection, and they aren’t as solid there:

That’s reserve tackle (and likely starter against the Hokies) Phillip Daniels (#60) and guard Ashton Beers (#78) both getting beat. In general, they don’t have a lot of lateral quickness picking up pressure inside, and as much as the Hokies stunt, that might be a spot to do some damage. That lack of quickness hurt Minnesota some with pull-protection, too.

I’ve painted the Gophers as having a bit of a staid, stereotypical Big 10 offense, but they have some surprising moments. Most of them are the aforementioned deep shots in short-yardage situations. Sure, every team does that some, but the Gophers seemed to do it earlier and more often. They also don’t mind getting tricky. They’ll direct snap to the backs, run reverse passes, and they’ll spring fun stuff like this:

Minnesota is showing your standard tush-push formation, but instead of battering Brosmer’s butt beyond the LOS, two of the backs are running a sweep to the left. You can see the risk in the play, with Wisconsin trying to pick off blockers and create a clean shot at the QB; if the hand-off takes a split second longer, it could’ve been a dangerous fumble. Instead, it’s a huge play that sets up a touchdown and basically puts the game out of reach.

That’s the offense. Next up, we’ll look over a defense that’s taken a few hits before having a few deep thoughts.