The First Bank & Trust Friday Q&A: First Quarter Scoring, The Portal, And More

Chris Coleman

Lead Analyst and Columnist

September 22, 2023 19

Virginia Tech, First Bank & Trust — Tyler Bowen and the Virginia Tech offense has a lot of trouble in the first quarter. (Jon Fleming)

1) To what can we attribute our lack of first quarter scoring? – kpileski

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19 Comments

GOML September 22, 2023 at 10:43 PM

"Duke has portaled 10 OL in the past two years. " • And GA Tech and AZ State have also had double digit TP OL additions from 2019 to (June) 2023. • However, those three teams are the only P5 teams with double digit TP OL additions. • Strikes me that Tech should not be compared to a team that is doing something that only 4% of P5 teams have done. • However, I am interested in thoughts as to why those teams have succeeded at adding TP OL. ***** In June I reviewed 5 years – 2019 to 2023 – of OL player activity in the Transfer Portal (TP). ^^ ^^ = used 247Sports TP data – and adult refreshments were involved – adjust expectations accordingly A) In general, I learned that: 1) 100% of P5 teams lost OL to the TP. • one: 1 team • double digits (10-14): 12 teams • average: 6.8 • 22 P5 teams lost ~50% of the P5 TP OL 5-year total 2) ~89% of P5 teams added OL from the TP. • zero: 7 teams • one: 5 teams • double digits (10, 12): 3 teams • average: 3.7 • 14 P5 teams added ~47% of the TP OL 5-year total B) Was surprised to learn that: 3) Duke and Georgia Tech were 2 of the 3 teams with double digit TP OL additions. • 12 and 10 respectively • Arizona State was the third – 12 4) ~31% of P5 OL that entered the TP ended up on another P5 team. 5) 11 teams provided ~47% of the P5 OL that entered the TP and ended up on another P5 team. • Stanford, Vanderbilt, Virginia, and Arizona State provided 7, 6, 6, and 5 respectively • Florida, Alabama, Oregon, Michigan, Tennessee, TAM, and Notre Dame provided 8, 8, 6, 5, 5, 4, and 4 respectively C) Was not surprised to learn that: 6) ~74% of the P5 TP OL additions occurred over the past 3 years. • 1 yr sit out rule waved 7) Teams that historically recruit well lost 80% to 100% of their TP OL to other P5 teams. • Clemson*, OSU*, Wisconsin*, Alabama, and Notre Dame lost 100%, 100%, 100%, 80%, and 80% respectively. * = small sample size D) Concluded that: 8) For many programs, a high percentage – 50%+ – of a team’s TP OL lost to other P5 teams is a significant predictive indicator of future poor OL performance. • two deep, pipeline 9) Agree with others that adapting to the new TP era includes reinforcing the ability to retain P5 level talent. • Success Triangle: Recruiting, Realization, Retention
cdogvt September 22, 2023 at 6:16 PM

We are in the middle of a rebuild in the middle of a learning curve for our coaching staff. We have actually done an overall good (not perfect) job in rebuilding the roster with talent and have (had) momentum on the recruiting trail. Now we need acceleration in our coaches learning curve for us to get out of this rut. There aren’t going to be any changes during the season, let’s see it how it shapes up. We have good men as coaches, hope these good men become good coaches fast enough.
1. GOML September 22, 2023 at 10:45 PM
  
  100% agree.
2. syee74vt96 September 23, 2023 at 3:12 PM
  
  It’s difficult to be patient when there are at least 3 programs that were worse than the Hokies … and those 3 programs are doing more with less and improving. South Carolina, Duke, and now Colorado. As Chris states in his article … experienced quality players are performing worse now … that is poor coaching. Pry needs to do what Beamer did early in his tenure … hire quality coordinators and assistant coaches.
MKD September 22, 2023 at 5:29 PM

I think we need 2 linebackers from the portal who've had a lot of experience. We keep trying to recruit safeties and convert them to linebackers and that usually doesn't work.
uvabasher September 22, 2023 at 5:09 PM

Jr Walker moved to LB. And btw he could have really been used this year.
vtgriff09 September 22, 2023 at 2:46 PM

The more CC and Will start to dive into the numbers, the more they are seeing what they did not want to see at all, or maybe didn't want to admit (because in fairness, positive and upbeat are a better way to run a site like this). That said, I don't think any 2 people are genuinely more down in the dumps about the realities of this staff. This is their life...VT sports, but VT football was the passion that sprung this fantastic spot where we can all come together as Hokies. Problem is, this staff can't coach. They struggle to scheme, they don't develop, they don't motivate or inspire great energy from the players....these guys miss the mark. Each time an article is written to highlight stats, this disturbing trend of players being better in 2021 (under a different coaching staff) pops up. If it is DTs that have been here for ages one week, then it is OL another week. These guys were freshmen when they were massively better players and graded out much, much better. It doesn't stop there, lack of LB growth, safeties/star position players are worse, Wells was a better QB at Marshall. Everything this staff touches gets worse. Wr may be the only thing that isn't worse, but 4 portal players (3 this yr) are the only thing fixing it. The portal DE is the only guy showing up with positives on run and pass. The portal OL from JUCO Shickk is the only real positive for the OL. It is yet another trend, these guys have been coached up elsewhere. It is getting harder to swallow. Everybody I am in a friend group with has stopped watching the Hokies. This football program.is the source of jokes everywhere I turn with people. Non-understanders of football are watching games and commenting how poorly coached we appear. Everytime more data comes out, it has to even be a shot to the excuse makers and blind defenders of Pry. It all adds up to one thing- move on from this coach before it is too late. The data is out, a sample size exists, the eye test doesn't lie. We will probably endure another 2 more yrs of this mess after this yr, with new coordinators and we will keep some coaches that need to move on as well. But my hope is we have the stones to start over, before we get beyond the point of repair.
1. Javaslinger September 22, 2023 at 5:01 PM
  
  This an overly harsh review for a staff that's had one season and a lot of turnover. They're not off to a roaring start, but they also did not have much in the cupboard to begin with. I think fans with reviews like this need to come to terms with just what rebuilding means
  1. Walkin` Willie September 22, 2023 at 5:19 PM
    
    +1,000,000
  2. syee74vt96 September 23, 2023 at 12:06 AM
    
    vtgriff09 has a good point. Maybe it’s not Pry, but his assistants? Like it was for Beamer at the beginning of his VT career. For comparison … Duke and South Carolina were in worse shape than the Hokies … but Elko and Beamer has done more with less. Duke 2019-2020: 5-7 2020-2021: 2-9 2021-2022: 3-9 2022-2023: 9-4 – Elko 2023-2024: 3-0 and beat Clemson South Carolina 2019-2020: 4-8 2020-2021: 2-8 2021-2022: 7-6 – Beamer 2022-2023: 8-5 – Beamer 2023-2024: 1-2, lost to ranked teams, including #1 Georgia by just 10 points Virginia Tech 2019-2020: 8-5 2020-2021: 5-6 2021-2022: 6-7 2022-2023: 3-8 – Pry 2023-2024: 1-2
2. GOML September 22, 2023 at 10:46 PM
  
  100% agree.
3. gaholder81 September 22, 2023 at 11:31 PM
  
  Agree with the original post completely. The disconnect between the Pry fans and the non-Pry fans seems to be the different explanations for regressing stats and regressing performance of the players. The Pry fans seem to say he needs more time to rebuild. But if in year 2 players are actually regressing statistically that points to scheme/coaching. There is no other explanation for that except one. That the players are not properly motivated. But again that falls on the coaches. IMO it's pretty obvious what's going on here. For whatever reason the coaches just are not getting the best out of the players. We DO not have a large amount of talent. But we DO have more talent than our statistics show. There can be only one reason for that.
4. HokieJB September 23, 2023 at 12:31 AM
  
  Say hello to your bandwagoner friends, who have "stopped watching the Hokies." Perhaps they will return when our team is worthy of their support.
  1. gaholder81 September 23, 2023 at 8:23 AM
    
    I know you weren't responding directly to me but just to clarify I'll NEVER stop watching the Hokies!!!
5. HokieDad2003 September 23, 2023 at 9:58 AM
  
  That’s telling it like it is, as much as it’s hard to admit.
BNOMO September 22, 2023 at 2:20 PM

The transfer portal answer was really depressing. Do we need a flashy coach like Deion sanders to convince players to play for us? We have a good history, great stadium, and a devoted fan base. And no one wants to play for us? That’s just hard to believe. Someone tell me I’m wrong please.
1. gemrooty September 22, 2023 at 4:55 PM
  
  According to another website, we have the fourth highest average star rating (3.31) in the ACC, behind FSU, Clemson and Miami. That’s a positive.
  1. gaholder81 September 22, 2023 at 11:32 PM
    
    Impossible! I have been led to believe we are one of the least talented teams in the country!
TomTurkey September 22, 2023 at 12:56 PM

"They can’t change the past, but they can change the future." Badabing!

The First Bank &amp; Trust Friday Q&amp;A: First Quarter Scoring, The Portal, And More

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