At halftime of this one, I was not a happy camper. I wasn’t mad, per se, because I don’t really get like that anymore. But I was disappointed that my desired outcome (45-10, Hokies) looked out of range, as Tech led just 14-7 at the break.
Note that I said “desired outcome.” That was my prediction from the game preview, yes, but there was also an element of wishful thinking there. My college buddy Bruce teased me before the UNC game and said, “You picked us to lose [against UNC], and if we win, you’ll pick us for a big win against MTSU, and if we don’t win by a bunch, then you’ll pick us to lose to WVU, and ….”
He’s not entirely wrong, except for the WVU part. Even without knowing anything about WVU, I’m going to pick VT to win.
Back to my point, though. I wanted to see a big win. I wanted to see VT come out and get off to a good start against MTSU. I made the point that the last time VT blew out an overmatched out of conference opponent was in 2018, when the Hokies beat William & Mary 62-17. I wanted to see evidence that this team was turning the corner and was capable of spanking a lesser opponent “like they used to.”
I’m looking for any evidence that the Hokies are turning a corner and getting back to 8, 9, or 10 wins. I didn’t get that evidence in this game, so I’m premature at best on that.
It wasn’t just that MTSU is small. It’s that they’re small and young. That’s what I saw and grabbed on to when I made my 35-point prediction. That showed an ignorance of scheme on my part. MTSU likes to put a bunch of guys on the line on defense and play man/press coverage on the wide receivers, meaning that if every one of your guys gets a good block in the running game, they can have you outnumbered and make the tackle with a free hitter. This is what happened on Virginia Tech’s very first play, a run by Raheem Blackshear that led to a 1-yard loss.
In the passing game, your wide receivers must be able to get open, and that was a concern after the UNC game. It still is, after we didn’t see a lot of guys running free in coverage. The Hokies blocked well in the passing game, giving up just one sack (on the third play of the game) and six QB hurries, but many times I saw Braxton Burmeister go through his reads, not find anything, and break the pocket.
Note that Burmeister also missed some open guys, and both he and Fuente also said after the game that there are situations where Burmeister is playing it safe and not uncorking the ball when maybe he should.
It’s all part of a process of the Hokies figuring out what will work in the passing game. I saw little to no scheming to get guys open, but instead some focus on seeing what Tech could do mano-y-mano. The answer? Not much, not even against a couple of backup CBs for Middle Tennessee State.
“I don’t know that we are the team that can just blow the doors off people,” Justin Fuente said after the game. “That’s kind of not how we are built right now.”
Indeed. So far this season, the Hokies are playing well on special teams and are disciplined, ranking No. 2 in the nation in penalties per game (just 2.5) and No. 23 in turnover margin (+1 per game). But they’re not explosive so far this season … so far.
Here’s an interesting stat, and the reason I added “so far”: through two games this season, Virginia Tech has 12 plays of 20+ yards, including offense, defense (fumble and INT returns) and special teams (kick and punt returns). The Hokies had three against UNC and nine against MTSU.
Through two games last season, the Hokies had 20 such plays, including 12 by Khalil Herbert alone.
That’s six per game this year, ten per game last year. Big difference, right? But last year, going into the UVA game, the Hokies had “just” 72 plays of 20+, and it looks like they added about six more in the UVA game, giving them 78 in 11 games … just seven per game, after starting out at a pace of ten per game. The pace slowed significantly after two games.
We’ll see where it goes from here, but if this year’s explosiveness declines during the season like it did last year, that spells trouble, and it’s going to be a grinder of a season. If you’re wondering how losing James Mitchell to a knee injury affects Virginia Tech’s explosiveness, he had seven of Virginia Tech’s 78 explosive plays last season, so he was about ten percent of the production last year. He had one this year, a 20-yard catch against UNC (the double-stiff-arm move, I’m guessing).
That’s a lot of writing to examine why Virginia Tech didn’t blow MTSU out. Except they pretty much did, taking a 35-7 lead at one point. And while we wished for a 21-0 start after one quarter on last week’s preview podcast, it’s notable that Virginia Tech did outscore MTSU 21-0 in a 14-minute stretch from the early third quarter to the early fourth quarter, as shown in the scoring summary:
Lastly, just look around college football. There seems to be more parity than ever between Power 5 teams and “lesser” teams. (I’m looking at you, Florida State, and boy did both FSU and Notre Dame struggle after their Sunday night classic from last week). I wanted to see a runaway, but Virginia Tech’s not there yet.
Braxton Burmeister a Work in Progress
As Chris pointed out last week, Braxton Burmeister was one of the highest-grading QBs in the nation in Week 1, especially among FBS QBs who played another FBS team with a pulse. This week? Not so much.
This week, Burmeister dropped all the way to no. 77 overall, including no. 99 in the passing game (among QBs with 20+ dropbacks). Those are preliminary Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades, but even though they may change some when the final grades come out, those grades point to a QB who took a step back in game two.
As noted above, Burmeister didn’t necessarily have a lot to work with, as the Virginia Tech coaches appeared to me to keep it pretty simple. There wasn’t a lot of scheming to get guys open, and a week after being a big weapon in the passing game, Raheem Blackshear caught one pass for just five yards.
Justin Fuente continues to tinker with the passing game to figure out what his guys can and can’t do, and the picture is getting clearer. The WVU and Richmond games will provide more insight, and then, after a week off, the Hokies will take on Notre Dame, followed by the rest of the ACC schedule … eight consecutive challenging games.
If the Virginia Tech coaches truly did hold some things back in this MTSU game and work on some aspects of the passing game – I’m always doubtful of that, because I think coaches coach to win, period – then I don’t think they’ll do that against WVU. In a critical year for Justin Fuente’s future and Virginia Tech fan support, I don’t think Fuente’s going to mess around with WVU, or hide things for future opponents, or anything like that.
More About That Hot Seat
If you Google “ncaa football coaches hot seat 2021” you’ll get some preseason articles that show Justin Fuente as having toasty buns. Sporting News had him No. 2 for on-field issues, Athlon Sports had him No. 2, and as I mentioned recently, CBSSports.com had him grouped with just two other coaches as a red-hot “5.”
Yes, I know, those are outside opinions that aren’t particularly informed, but there you have it.
Two games into the season, Fuente is coaching the No. 15 team in the country, with a chance to go higher by taking care of business at WVU and against Richmond before taking a week off and awaiting Notre Dame. If he is aware of the vultures circling, then he doesn’t just want to ward them off. He wants to stick a finger in their eye and bury them, the way Frank Beamer buried his critics with his 1993 season.
Yes, every coach wants to win every game. But sometimes it’s personal.
Former Hokies
Did you hear that former Hokies QB and Super Bowl champion coach Bruce Arians was at the game? You didn’t? Well, lemme tell ya!
Arians started out hanging on the sidelines, which led to this humorous tweet by an MTSU staffer who got distracted by Enter Sandman and didn’t notice Arians next to him:
https://twitter.com/BillHasMeCoverd/status/1437037666105761798
Then Arians made his way to the stands, where TSL’s Ivan Morozov got a great picture of him and his honking Super Bowl ring:
After doing the “Go Hokies” thing on the field, Arians made his way up into the broadcast booth in (I think) the third quarter, where he hung out with Bill Roth and Eddie Royal for a while, and dropped some interesting tidbits.
Arians said he was one of the few players to play for Jerry Claiborne (1961-1970 at VT), Charlie Coffey (1971-1973), and Jimmy Sharpe (1974-1977). Sports-Reference.com shows Arians as playing for Virginia Tech from 1972-1974, so I’m guessing he redshirted in 1970 under Claiborne, played freshman ball in 1971 under Coffey, then played varsity for Coffey in 1972 and 1973 before playing for Sharpe in 1974.
In the 1974 Tech-UVA game, which was played in the middle of the season that year, the Hokies lost 28-27 when Sharpe went for two late in the game. Here’s how Dave Johnson of the Daily Press described it in a 2018 article:
“Trailing by a touchdown, Tech had possession at the U.Va. 11-yard line with time for one final play. Bruce Arians, a wishbone quarterback, lofted a pass to the left corner of the end zone. Ricky Scales made the catch and got one foot inbounds for the touchdown.
Or did he?