I was pondering the Virginia Tech-Pitt rivalry, and what a great rivalry it is for Virginia Tech football. A true rival is one that you dislike but whom you’re also afraid of, and Pittsburgh fits that bill.
Virginia Tech and Pitt first played in 1993, and since that meeting, won 63-21 by the Hokies, Virginia Tech has been the more successful program by far. From 1993-2018, per the Stassen database, the Hokies are the 6th-winningest program in FBS football. Pitt? No. 67. Out of 117 teams.
Pitt won ten games just once from 1993-2018, going 10-3 in 2009. The Panthers had 12 losing seasons over that time span, versus just once for the Hokies. One of these programs has historically been a lot better than the other over the last 25+ seasons.
Yet the Panthers were nearly .500 against the Hokies from 1993-2018, going 8-10, including 7-3 from 2001-2018.
That. Is. Super. Annoying. Pitt always seems to hold out their best for the Hokies.
This was a very satisfying win, the most satisfying win over Pitt in 25 years, as a matter of fact:
https://twitter.com/TechSideline/status/1198801615010091008
If you thought we were giving too much credit to Pittsburgh in the run-up to the game, well, it makes sense, doesn’t it? They’ve been a thorn in Tech’s side for literally decades.
This goes beyond the current Pitt coaches and uniforms and stadium and students. Never mind Pat Narduzzi, and never mind this:
https://twitter.com/therealdcunna/status/1198317293304000512
Or this:
https://twitter.com/jjcoop007/status/1198626729264394241
Or this:
More disrespect at the entrance! pic.twitter.com/3ZJ2msD3qU
— Ken Deans (@KennethDeans) November 24, 2019
Okay, that’s a lot of clips and evidence of Pittsburgh players and by extension their coaching staff acting like punks. This rivalry has been around a long time, but it does have some extra juice now.
For the most part, this game was what we expected. It’s not like the Hokies tore it up on offense; Virginia Tech only had 263 yards. This game was going to be ruled by big plays and turnovers, and fortunately, the Hokies got the upper hand in almost all respects there.
It began with Virginia Tech and Pitt trading punts, and as they did so, the Hokies moved forward on the field. Virginia Tech’s first three possessions:
- Start at VT 25
- Start at VT 40
- Start at Pitt 47
Then, disaster: a fumbled shotgun snap, a common bugaboo with Hendon Hooker at the QB spot, on fourth down. Pitt recovered on the 50, and field position was flipped.
Fortunately, the Hokies responded with a defensive three-and-out, and on Tech’s next possession, the Hokies got the big play, not from Big Play Tre Turner, but from Tayvion Robinson, who flipped field position back with a 71-yard catch and run. That led to a James Mitchell one-yard TD run, and of course, on the very next play, this happened:
It was still the first quarter, but that was a huge sequence of events. Two turnovers and a big offensive play happened, and it was the Hokies who benefitted, going up 14-0.With the way Virginia Tech has been playing lately, you just felt like that was going to be enough, didn’t you? There was a lot of other stuff that happened over the next three quarters, but the course of this game was set by that first quarter sequence.
This was a very satisfying result on so many levels. Perhaps the most satisfying part is the margin of victory noted above as being the biggest in 17 meetings over 25 years. That really puts it in perspective.
Let’s add some more perspective, not just to this game but to what the Hokies have been doing in the last seven games, as they have gone 6-1, just one defensive stop away from 7-0.
Point Swings from 2018 to 2019
For the most part, the 2019 Virginia Tech Revenge Tour has been a fulfilling journey. Boston College escaped the Hokies’ wrath, and Duke (a win last year) actually went in the wrong direction, from a win to a loss.
Other than that, the Hokies have righted some wrongs.
| Opponent | 2018 Result | 2019 Result | Point Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | L, 31-21 | L, 35-28 | +3 |
| ODU | L, 49-35 | W, 31-17 | +28 |
| Duke | W, 31-14 | L, 45-10 | -55 |
| Miami | L, 38-14 | W, 42-35 | +31 |
| UNC | W, 22-19 | W, 43-41 | -1 |
| Notre Dame | L, 45-23 | L, 21-20 | +21 |
| Georgia Tech | L, 49-28 | W, 45-0 | +66 |
| Pittsburgh | L, 52-22 | W, 28-0 | +58 |
| Virginia | W, 34-31 | ??? | ??? |
Sheesh, that table shows what an enormous outlier the Duke game was. (Except it wasn’t, really. It was the culmination of a year-plus of declining performance.)
The average point swing since the Duke game has been +35 points, and that includes the (-1) UNC point swing. That doesn’t bode well for Virginia, 34-31 losers to the Hokies last year. If the Hokies keep trending the way they’re trending, they will utterly blow Virginia out. I don’t have the cojones to predict a big-time blowout, because I don’t want to test Jim Oliver’s Woof Gods Theorem (or if you prefer, Jim Alderson’s alternate spelling “Weauxf Gods”). More on that later.
It’s funny, I thought when planning this section that it would be longer. But the table above is pretty powerful, and the only thing left to do is say, “You’re next, UVA.”
Present the table. Smile threateningly at the Hoos. Section over.
Vintage Bud Foster D?
Bud Foster’s defense has been on fire for several weeks now. In the last ten quarters of football, starting with half time of the Wake Forest game, the Hokies have outscored their opponents 103-7. That includes 144 minutes (143:59 to be exact) of shutout football.
After giving up 41 points to UNC, Bud’s defense kicked into gear with the trip to Notre Dame. Here are the numbers starting with that game.
| Opponent | Run D (yds) | Pass D (yds) | Total D (yds) | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @Notre Dame | 106 | 341 | 447 | 21 |
| Wake Forest | 63 | 238 | 301 | 17 |
| @GT | 53 | 81 | 134 | 0 |
| Pitt | 60 | 117 | 177 | 0 |
| Averages | 70.5 (3) | 194.3 (25) | 264.8 (4) | 9.5 (1) |
See the number in parentheses in that last row? That’s where Bud’s defense would rank nationally in those statistics, if those were their numbers for the entire season. The Hokies would have a top ten defense in everything but passing yards allowed. The numbers are classic Bud Foster defense.
(Note: Chris Coleman's Inside the Numbers from today breaks it down for November-only games.)
Admittedly, none of the offenses the Hokies have faced in the last four games are all that scary. Only Wake Forest ranks in the top 50 for total offense, at No. 17, and they have started to slow down, due to some key injuries. Notre Dame is No. 52, and Pitt (96) and Georgia Tech (124) are abysmal.
Guess what? Virginia’s offense is ranked No. 87 in the nation: No. 43 in passing and No. 118 in rushing. (Boy, that rushing offense doesn’t bode well for the Hoos.)
This has not been a vintage Bud Foster defense in the last two seasons, but it’s approaching that territory now, just in time for the most important game of the year and one of the most important in the Commonwealth Cup rivalry.
Hendon Hooker – Ryan Willis Stats Comparison
The Hokies have played 11 games. Ryan Willis started the first four, Hendon Hooker has started six, and Quincy Patterson has started the other one.Although the ratio of Hooker starts to Willis starts is 6:4, it’s only now that Hooker’s passing attempt numbers have approached Willis’s. Willis has thrown 117 passes, Hooker 110. Here’s a look at their numbers:
- Willis: 72-117 (61.5%), 906 yards, 9 TDs, 5 INTs, 143.4 pass efficiency
- Hooker: 69-110 (62.7%), 1,134 yards, 10 TDs, 0 INTs, 179.3 pass efficiency
Neither player fulfills the NCAA stats ranking requirement to be listed in passing efficiency stats. You must have 15 attempts per game and have started 75% of your team’s games, so neither player is listed by the NCAA, but if they were, Hooker would rank No, 8, right in front of Trevor Lawrence, and Willis would rank No. 48 (or 49, if you take Hooker into account).
The biggest surprise in those numbers is the yards per attempt and yards per completion:
- Willis: 7.74 yds per att., 12.6 yds per comp.
- Hooker: 10.31 yds per att., 16.4 yds per comp.
Willis has the reputation of having the big gun, but where Hooker has been valuable is in resurrecting the tight end receiving game. Here are James Mitchell and Dalton Keene’s combined stats:
- Willis starts (4): 11 catches, 79 yards (7.2 ypc), 1 TD
- Hooker starts (6): 26 catches, 466 yards (17.9 ypc), 5 TDs
The yards per catch (ypc) really jump out at you.
Here are Mitchell and Keene on a per-game basis:
- Willis starts (4): 2.75 rec./gm., 19.75 yds./gm., 0.25 TD/gm.
- Hooker starts (6): 4.33 rec./gm., 77.67 yds./gm., 0.83 TD/gm.
Lastly, overall offensive stats:
- Willis starts: 148.8 rush yds/game, 214.8 pass yds/game, 363.5 yds/game, 23.3 pts/game
- Hooker starts: 201.2 rush yds/game, 216.5 pass yds/game, 417.7 yds/game, 38.0 pts/game
Those 38.0 ppg include two defensive touchdowns, against Georgia Tech and Pitt. (The Notre Dame touchdown by Divine Deablo was a QP start, not a Hooker start.) Even if you take out those two defensive scores, Virginia Tech has averaged 35.7 ppg with Hooker starting.
I used to harp all the time about how the Hokies weren't scoring 30 points in ACC play. After two games this season, they had only topped 30 three times in their last 18 ACC games. Since then? Four out of five times, and 28 points this past Saturday against a very good Pitt defense.
Why All the Number Crunching?
This is more of an Inside the Numbers effort, not your typical Monday Thoughts. One would think that in the aftermath of a big win over a heated rival, especially a game in which the rival acted in classless fashion (that seems to be a pattern under Pat Narduzzi), that I’d have more to say about it.Instead, I find I’ve got that whole “Who’s Next?” mentality going. The Hokies are playing so well that I want the next game to arrive as fast as possible. Let’s do it again.
That still doesn’t explain all the number crunching, so here’s the reason: In reading Chris Coleman’s Sunday article, I took note of this passage:
The other reason I want to win this one [the UVA game] so badly is that I don’t want anything to happen that might make us forget what this team has accomplished this season. If the Hokies win on Friday, they’ll go down as one of our favorite Tech teams of all time because of the remarkable midseason turnaround. But if they lose it, a lot of people are going to forget about that turnaround and just remember them as the team that lost to UVA for the first time in a decade and a half.