Today we’re going to talk about the main reason for last night’s loss to Penn State (turnovers) and what it means in the grand scheme of things (probably nothing).
Turnovers, and Robinson’s Worst Performance?
There are a litany of reasons for Virginia Tech’s loss to Penn State. Believe it or not, the game wasn’t all Ahmed Hill’s fault. It’s not ideal for him to go scoreless, but he spent much of the night guarding Penn State’s best player, Lamar Stevens. Stevens came into the game averaging over 24 points per game, but Hill held him to 14 points on 6-of-16 shooting. So while Hill didn’t bring his usual solid offensive game, he was above average on the defensive end.
The main issue last night was turnover margin. Turnover margin is critical for the Hokies this year. They are trying to win the turnover battle by a significant margin each and every night to help offset their disadvantage on the boards. Here’s a paragraph from the article I wrote last week…
“We all know that the Hokies have a disadvantage on the glass. Other teams will get more possessions thanks to offensive rebounds simply because of their size. For Buzz Williams, the question is how to offset that advantage. Looking at it from an analytics perspective, the best way to overcome that is by winning the turnover battle, and creating extra possessions yourself in the hope that your disadvantage on the glass and your advantage in turnovers offset each other.”
Through the first five games of the season, Virginia Tech was successful with that strategy. Last night, they were not. Here are the game-by-game numbers in offensive rebounding margin and turnover margin…
- Gardner-Webb: +7 offensive rebounds, +9 turnover margin, +16 overall. That’s 16 more scoring opportunities.
- Ball State: +2 offensive rebounds, +5 turnover margin, +7 overall. That’s seven more scoring opportunities.
- Northeastern: +3 offensive rebounds, +9 turnover margin, +12 overall. That’s 12 more scoring opportunities.
- Purdue: -4 offensive rebounds, +3 turnover margin, -1 overall. That’s one fewer scoring opportunity. The Hokies basically broke even against Purdue, which is what the goal should be against similarly talented team.
- Saint Francis (PA): -8 offensive rebounds, +8 turnover margin, 0 overall. Tech and Saint Francis broke even, and the Hokies used their superior talent to win 75-37.
- Penn State: -6 offensive rebounds, +1 turnover margin, -5 overall. That’s five extra opportunities for Penn State, and they took seven more shots than the Hokies as a result. Tech lost the game by one point.
This is a stat that we’re going to track all season. In fact, I’m going to do a table with these numbers and include it in regular updates. I think these statistics are critical to Virginia Tech’s success this season.
| Opponent | Off. Rebounding Margin | Turnover Margin | Overall Margin | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner-Webb | +7 | +9 | +16 | Won by 28 |
| Ball State | +2 | +5 | +7 | Won by 9 |
| Northeastern | +3 | +9 | +12 | Won by 28 |
| Purdue | -4 | +3 | -1 | Won by 6 |
| Saint Francis (PA) | -8 | +8 | 0 | Won by 38 |
| Penn State | -6 | +1 | -5 | Lost by 1 |
The Hokies excelled in the first three games of the season, and the result against Purdue was acceptable as well. Those last two results, however, have not been ideal. Breaking even against Saint Francis (PA) isn’t acceptable, and you can’t go -5 on the road against a team that won 26 games last season and expect to win. The biggest issue the last two games has been turnovers committed by Tech’s own offense. They had 14 turnovers against Saint Francis, and 15 against Penn State, after coming nine against Ball State, nine against Northeastern, and 10 against Purdue.
Last night, the biggest issue was Justin Robinson, who had the second worst assist-to-turnover ratio of his career. It was the 16th time in his career that he had more turnovers than assists, but only the fourth time since his sophomore season. His six turnovers tied for the second-most turnovers that he’s ever committed in a game for the Hokies. Here are his three worst games, from a turnover standpoint…
Sophomore year, UMBC: 7 turnovers (apparently UMBC gives Virginia schools trouble)
Sophomore year, Nebraska: 6 turnovers
Senior year, Penn State: 6 turnovers
Virginia Tech beat UMBC and Nebraska despite his turnovers, but this year’s Penn State squad is better than both of those teams, plus the game was played on the road.
Last season Robinson had five turnovers in two games (Louisville and NC State), and four turnovers once (UVA). He never committed more than three turnovers in the other 30 games. In short, last night’s game was his worst game, from a turnover perspective, since the UMBC game on December 28, 2016. That’s 23 months. Considering that Robinson is now a senior and a Preseason All-ACC pick, last night’s game might have been the worst of his career, relatively speaking.
When it comes down to it, Robinson’s issues weren’t any different than what caused the issues for the other players on Tech’s team. Penn State was more physical, and their physicality took the Hokies out of their offense. Things just didn’t run smoothly. The Hokies are better, and I think they’d win last night’s game on the road seven out of 10 times, or thereabouts, but the Nittany Lions were just better last night.
The Early Season Loss, and the Grand Scheme of Things
Last night’s loss is not big deal, unless it somehow sends the Virginia Tech players into some sort of a funk. I can’t see that happening though, because this is a senior-laden team, and they know how to deal with losses.Last season, Virginia Tech was defeated by Saint Louis in November. Saint Louis went on to become a mediocre 17-16 basketball team. Two years ago, the Hokies blew a 17-point lead to Texas A&M, who went on to become a mediocre 16-15 basketball team. Both of those Tech teams went on the NCAA Tournament.
It’s important to not get wrapped up in one individual loss during a basketball season. Teams get upset all the time in college basketball. The more talented team does not win, and that’s part of the beauty of the sport. Things would be boring without the occasional Radford victory over Notre Dame (that happened this year, in case you don’t pay attention to other teams), or IUPUI over Boston College (again, that happened this year), or UMBC over Virginia, and yes, even the Hokies beating Duke or UNC. Let’s face it, every time Duke or UNC loses to Virginia Tech, their fans say the exact same things that Tech fans say when we lose to Penn State or Saint Louis: “We had no business losing that game! We have better players! Oh, and the refs sucked!”
It happens. Everybody loses to somebody they shouldn’t lose to, and it will always be that way. Look at Duke’s talent…every time they lose a game this year, it will technically be because they played to the level of the competition, because from a talent perspective, they should pretty much never lose.
Like everybody else, I was hoping to beat Penn State last night not only because it’s Penn State, but because it would have basically guaranteed a 9-0 start, and that quite possibly could have made the Hokies a top 10 team when they faced Washington in Atlantic City on December 15. Still, at worst the Hokies are going to be a 2-loss team when the non-conference portion of their schedule ends. Here’s a look…
vs. Central Connecticut State
vs. VMI
vs. South Carolina State
vs. Washington (Atlantic City)
vs. North Carolina A&T
vs. Maryland Eastern Shore
Winning all six of those games, which is quite possible, would put the Hokies at 11-1 heading into ACC play. Not only that, but they’d possibly have two Quadrant One wins, which is two more than they had in non-conference play last year. Even if they lose to Washington, they’ll still begin conference play with a better resume than they had a year ago. Here are the two scenarios, compared to last year.
2017-18: 11-2, 0 Quadrant One wins
2018-19: 11-1, 2 Quadrant One wins (assumes a victory over Washington)*
2018-19: 10-2, 1 Quadrant One wins (assumes a defeat against Washington)*
*Assuming Washington finishes in the top 50 of the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool). Right now they are No. 58, but they are projected to have a good season. Either way, the Hokies already have one more Quadrant One win (Purdue) than they had heading into January last season.
I think the Hokies are in pretty good shape, and with the new system, I don’t think non-conference strength of schedule will prove to be as important as it used to be.