
Justin Fuente comes to Virginia Tech with the reputation for developing quarterbacks. It's a reputation that is well-earned, as this Tweet shows…
Why Justin Fuente is the ideal hire at Virginia Tech… pic.twitter.com/iubCAoTGN6
— David Hale (@DavidHaleESPN) December 10, 2015
That Tweet says two things…
1) Quarterback production at TCU went way up after Fuente moved from running backs coach to QB coach/OC for the 2009 season. The same thing happened when he became the head coach at Memphis.
2) Virginia Tech needs improved quarterback play. Obviously the main issues on the offense over the last few years have been the offensive line, subpar play at tailback and the lack of depth at receiver, but it's been awhile since the Hokies had an All-ACC caliber player under center.
From that standpoint, Justin Fuente is a great hire for Virginia Tech. Every single shred of evidence suggests that the numbers for Tech's quarterbacks will improve over the course of the next few seasons. However, Andy Dalton at TCU, and to a lesser extent Paxton Lynch at Memphis, were helped by a running game that spread the ball around to different backs. One thing has to happen for Fuente to truly run his style of offense: the Hokies have to get a lot better tailback depth, and they have to do it in a hurry.
Fuente's Offenses: Run Heavy at TCU; Balanced, with a Running Emphasis at Memphis
Let's get one thing straight. Justin Fuente isn't going to roll into town and suddenly start throwing the ball 500 times a season. In fact, his quarterbacks have only gone over 400 passes twice. Fuente's offenses have always leaned on a strong running game that featured several main ball carriers.
Let's take a look back to his days at TCU. He had three stud tailbacks for three consecutive seasons, and that certainly helped take a lot of the pressure off Andy Dalton and the passing game. Here are the main rushing numbers for 2009…
Joseph Turner: 147 carries, 754 yards, 5.1 ypc, 11 TDs
Matthew Tucker: 105 carries, 676 yards, 6.4 ypc, 8 TDs
Ed Wesley: 101 carries, 638 yards, 6.3 ypc, 4 TDs
Andy Dalton: 116 carries, 512 yards, 4.4 ypc, 3 TDs
2010 and 2011 followed similar trends. Here's 2010…
Ed Wesley: 166 carries, 1078 yards, 6.5 ypc, 11 TDs
Matthew Tucker: 148 carries, 709 yards, 4.8 ypc, 7 TDs
Waymon James: 87 carries, 513 yards, 5.9 ypc, 5 TDs
Andy Dalton: 86 carries, 435 yards, 5.1 ypc, 6 TDs
And now for 2011…
Waymon James: 121 carries, 875 yards, 7.2 ypc, 6 TDs
Ed Wesley: 120 carries, 726 yards, 6.1 ypc, 6 TDs
Matthew Tucker: 123 carries, 702 yards, 5.7 ypc, 12 TDs
Let's look at the overall running and passing splits in those years…
2009: 595 runs, 326 passes, 64.6% runs
2010: 600 runs, 331 passes, 64.4% runs
2011: 532 runs, 350 passes, 60.3% runs
Obviously Fuente likes to run the football when he has the personnel to do so. A strong running game is the friend of every quarterback, even first round picks like Andy Dalton. Just because Fuente is a former quarterback doesn't mean he wants to throw the ball 50 times a game. He was also the running backs coach for two years at TCU, and one of his backs (Aaron Brown) was drafted by the Detroit Lions. He knows the value of having a productive ground game.
Also, note that none of those TCU running backs ever had more than 166 carries in a season, yet they were all effective. That goes against the theory that a back has to get the majority of the carries to "get into a rhythm."
At Memphis, Fuente was more open to throwing the football. That's likely for two reasons…
1) It put Paxton Lynch against AAC defensive backs.
2) He didn't have the stud backs that he did at TCU.
Here are the year by year numbers at Memphis …
2012: 489 runs, 283 passes, 63.3% runs
2013: 438 runs, 361 passes, 54.8% runs
2014: 594 runs, 418 passes, 58.7% runs
2015: 532 runs, 428 passes, 55.4% runs
In those four years, Memphis only had one back carry the ball 200+ times. He never had one with 200+ carries at TCU. His offenses usually employ a rotation of 2-3 running backs. As many as four guys could get a lot of carries, depending on whether or not the quarterback is mobile and durable.
Virginia Tech will have a mobile quarterback next year. Whether it's Brenden Motley, Dwayne Lawson, or whatever JUCO quarterback Fuente decides to bring in, the guy under center for the Hokies will be able to move. However, will Tech be able to find 1-2 running backs to complement Travon McMillian?
Here are the options…
Trey Edmunds: One carry over the last four games. It seems Tech believes that running Travon McMillian into the ground is a better decision than bringing in Edmunds for a series or two. In other words, they have no confidence that Edmunds will be effective. Will he be a better option with a different running backs coach? We'll see. Shai McKenzie and Marshawn Williams: McKenzie blew out the same knee in 2013 and 2014, and he was nowhere near 100% in 2015. Williams blew out the same knee in 2014 and 2015, and he might not even be available in 2016. Take off the orange and maroon glasses for a second. If these two guys played for another team, and you read that they blew out the same knee twice, would you believe they'd ever get back to 100%? That would be a major reach. Tech has to assume they won't. DJ Reid: Reid never even played in a game in a season where the Hokies had no running back depth at all. Coleman Fox: All of Fox's scholarship offers (besides VT) were from FCS schools. Can he play tailback at this level? Even if he can, will he be ready as a r-freshman?Personally, I'm hanging my hat on r-freshman Deshawn McClease. He looked solid in preseason scrimmages, and he could turn out to be Tech's best healthy option. However, he'll only be a r-freshman. He's not a sure thing.
Tech has bodies at tailback, but no proven depth. It's no surprise that Justin Fuente has offered Dae Williams out of Oklahoma. He needs another option in the backfield besides Travon McMillian if he wants to run an up-tempo offense that leans towards the running game. It will be tough for McMillian to carry the load by himself all season.
So while we know that Justin Fuente will want to establish a running game next year, other than Travon McMillian we don't know exactly who is going to help him establish that running game. Spring practice will be big for all the backup tailbacks.