The Hokies are 1-1, and that's one game worse than we thought they would be at this point. The Alabama State loss left a bad taste in our mouth, but it's important to put some things in perspective.
This is a basketball program that finished in last place in the ACC four years in a row. We knew this was not going to be a quick fix. Rebuilding a program is a long, arduous task, even for a guy like Buzz Williams. There are going to be peaks and valleys. I've said from the beginning that we should strive to finish around .500 in year two, with the postseason being the goal in year three. In other words, the goal is to follow the Clemson path that Oliver Purnell followed.
From 1998 through 2003, the Clemson Tigers were the worst program in the ACC over that five year stretch, under head coach Larry Shyatt. Only once did the team finish higher than 8th place in the 9-team ACC, and that was only a 7th place finish. They finished dead last in three of his five seasons. Clemson had some success under Rick Barnes, Cliff Ellis and the late Bill Foster (our Bill Foster, not the other Bill Foster), but Shyatt ran them straight into the ground.
Enter Oliver Purnell. When Purnell arrived, the Tigers were probably the least talented team in the ACC. Everyone knew that it would be a rebuilding job at a school with very little basketball tradition. It was not an easy or quick path, but Purnell eventually got it done. Here's what he did year-by-year…
Year 1: 10-18 overall, 3-13 ACC
Year 2: 16-16 overall, 5-11 ACC, NIT First Round
Year 3: 19-15 overall, 7-9 ACC, NIT Second Round
Year 4: 25-11 overall, 7-9 ACC, NIT Runner Up
Year 5: 24-10 overall, 10-6 ACC, NCAA First Round
Year 6: 23-9 overall, 9-7 ACC, NCAA First Round
Year 7: 21-11 overall, 9-7 ACC, NCAA First Round
For a school with Clemson's basketball reputation, it literally doesn't get any better than that.
Buzz Williams inherited a very similar situation at Virginia Tech. His first season in Blacksburg was nearly identical to Purnell's first season at Clemson. Purnell finished .500 in his second season, which should be our goal this year. That likely won't make the NIT, because it's much harder to make the NIT these days thanks to rule changes and the NCAA taking over the tournament. Still, .500 is the goal.
After year #2, the goal should be winning records and challenging for spots in the NCAA Tournament. Purnell didn't get there until year #5, but he was close in year #4. Eventually he took the Tigers to three NCAA Tournaments in a row before leaving. Also, note that he lost to Elon in year #3. That's a worse loss than Tech's loss to Alabama State, and it came in year #3 rather than year #2.
What's my point? When Buzz Williams took over Virginia Tech, he faced problems very similar to those faced by Purnell at Clemson back in 2003-04, arguably worse problems. This is not going to happen overnight. It's going to take time.
This Year's Roster and Win Expectations
Last year was a throwaway year, and we all knew it. Buzz's first year in Blacksburg was all about recruiting, and with that he did a good job. Here are some of his accomplishments…
Signing Ahmed Hill, a national top 75 player
Convincing Seth Allen to transfer to VT over UVA and NC State
Bring in Zach LeDay
Signing the #1 recruit in VA - Chris Clarke - as a part of a very solid 2015 class
From a talent perspective, the current roster is miles ahead of where it was when Williams first arrived. We don't have to play 6-3 Malik Mueller or 6-6 walk-on Christian Beyer at center anymore. That by itself is a major improvement.
That being said, this is still a relatively new roster, and many of the guys are playing together for the first time. 10 players have seen action this season for Virginia Tech. Only four of them - Justin Bibbs, Satchel Pierce, Shane Henry and Jalen Hudson - played for the Hokies last season. Of those four guys, only Bibbs is seeing more than 13.5 minutes per game. In fact, Pierce didn't even play against Jacksonville State last night. Buzz has almost a whole new team on the court this year.
Of those 10 players, I believe that eight are definitely ACC-level players. I don't believe Shane Henry or Satchel Pierce fit that billing, but in year two you don't expect every single player on the roster to be exactly what you are looking for. Ahmed Hill is definitely an ACC player, and Ty Outlaw probably is, too. On the whole, Buzz has assembled an ACC-level roster in a very short amount of time.
Right now, the issues are youth, post depth, injuries to Hill and Outlaw, and new players playing together for the first time. That's not a situation that is conducive to a lot of wins. We're looking at a .500 team at best, most likely.
If you think about it, Kerry Blackshear is our best center and he's only a freshman. Zach LeDay is our best rebounder, and he's an undersized power forward. Johnny Hamilton didn't start playing basketball until late in his high school career, and he's even more raw than most freshmen. Veteran guard Devin Wilson is injured. Highly-touted transfer Seth Allen has struggled. Jalen Hudson is not the same player he was at the end of last season.
As we go forward, none of those situations are going to get worse. Most will get better. Seth Allen isn't going to play like a freshman all season. Hamilton will improve with more playing time. Kerry Blackshear won't be a freshman forever. Wilson will return at some point. Hudson will either improve, or his playing time will be completely taken away next year by better and more consistent wings. Overall post depth certainly won't get any worse.
The Hokies played tough against teams like Syracuse and Duke last year, but for the most part they were run off the court. Check out some of these losses…
82-51 at WVU
85-60 vs. Notre Dame
78-63 at Louisville
68-53 at UNC
75-54 at Clemson
76-52 at Miami
69-53 at NC State
82-61 vs. Miami
That's a lot of double digit losses. We can be a more competitive team this season even if we don't improve our W-L record all that much. Despite the loss to Alabama State, I'm still 100% confident that this team will be better than last year's team. I think we'll finish around .500, and with somewhere between four and six ACC wins. Compared to last season, that would represent significant improvement.
Remember, this is college basketball. There are going to be ups and downs. Don't let one game get you depressed. Likewise, don't let a big win get you too excited.
I'll Take a Few More LeDays, Please
Zach Leday has rapidly developed into my favorite player on the team.
Game 1: 26 points, 15 rebounds
Game 2: 15 points, 9 rebounds
However, it's not the numbers that make me like LeDay. It's how he plays and how he carries himself. He's not the most physically gifted guy in the world, and he's not a big power forward. However, he's a very scrappy player, and he's most definitely Tech's toughest player.
It's easy to get caught up in measurables and numbers. But the fact of the matter is that last year Tech's best center was 6-6 walk-on Christian Beyer. He was better than Satchel Pierce because he was tougher and scrappier. It's as simple as that. He possessed some better skills than Satchel, such as better hands, but on the whole he played harder and played tougher, and that's why he's a better player.
That describes LeDay. He's not afraid to get on the court, and he's got a good nose for the ball. He's a fairly good athlete, and he's versatile enough to score inside or outside. He's not going to be a star once we start playing teams with better size, but there's a reason he's leading this team in minutes played right now. Buzz trusts him more than any other player.
The Hokies lost to Alabama State because they didn't play hard enough, and they weren't scrappy enough. LeDay was the lone exception. I haven't seen a play in which his motor wasn't running at 100%.
We need a few more guys like LeDay. For us to succeed, we need to be the meanest, toughest, scrappiest team in the ACC. Talent isn't going to do it for us this year, and neither is experience. We need to play like a bunch of jerks. I said the same thing last season in an article. Here's an exerpt…
"Deron Washington was one of the least popular ACC players of his era. So was Malcolm Delaney. Opposing ACC fans hated those guys, just as Tech fans hated Greivis Vasquez at Maryland. Personally, I always loved Vasquez because I recognized in him many of the same qualities I saw in guys like Washington, Delaney, Jamon Gordon, etc. He was tough as nails, he was a big-time competitor, and he hated to lose.
Sometimes those emotions would boil over and create actions by those guys that fans didn’t particularly like. However, those same traits helped their respective programs win a lot of basketball games. FYI: Tech was really close to getting Greivis Vasquez…just imagine him on the same team as Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen. That would have been one of the most hated teams in ACC history, but (in my opinion) it would have also meant at least a couple of more NCAA Tournaments for the Hokies.