Usually, on Sundays I watch the game on DVR and take all sorts of notes. Sometimes I analyze some statistics, and most of the time I put together one to four videos to highlight some parts of the game, some players, etc.
I didn't do that this time. Part of the reason is that I think the particulars of this game have been sliced and diced very well by others, including Andy Bitter's typically-strong coverage, Aaron McFarling's analysis of Frank's big decisions that backfired, and Chris Coleman's Sunday article.
I feel I can't add anything of value to what has already been written about the game itself. Sometimes that happens. I feel like I'm late to the party (even though it's only Monday), and I don't have any new insight. This is one of those weeks.
CC often counsels me to take a break from watching film and doing analysis, and to just write my thoughts on a Monday. Fair nuff. We'll do that this week.
The Timeouts
I do want to ask you a question about this game, though: what did you think of Frank's decision to be aggressive and call timeouts before the half? I liked it, and said so on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/TechSideline/status/655488278775263232
If you check out the responses to that tweet, you'll see nothing but disagreement, though much of that disagreement came after the fact, after Miami scored.
That didn't sway me. I stuck by my guns:
https://twitter.com/TechSideline/status/655490878358732800
(I think it was 41 seconds, by the way, not 42. But who's counting?)
That decision and its poor outcome has been discussed enough, and I like McFarling's statement on the matter, linked above:
After all, what kind of Tech team do you want? A conservative one that doesn’t trust its defense? Or an attacking one that believes that its defense, while young in the secondary, can make the kind of game-changing plays it has for decades?
Well said, and that's my viewpoint. But what do you think? A simple poll.
Thanks for voting! Now, on to the larger issues …
I'll warn you that if you don't want to read yet another article about Frank Beamer's retirement, the end of his career, etc., most of the rest of this Monday Thoughts isn't for you. But I'll try to bring a fresh perspective to you on the matter, including how fans are behaving at this point in time.
I Think 2015 is Frank's Last Season
Before I go on, I wanted to establish this point: I think you're watching the final season of Frank Beamer's distinguished coaching career.
I know I have written about this multiple times on the message boards -- free and pay -- but I can't remember if I have laid out my thoughts on it in an article, so here goes:
First of all, I don't think Whit Babcock has told anyone directly, "This is it. Willingly or not, Frank won't be the coach next year." But my best sources are convinced that that's the direction things are headed, to the point where those sources will be very surprised if Frank is back next year.
So there's intel pointing in that direction. And then there's a bunch of reading the tea leaves going on, and a gut feel, and an understanding of how guys like Whit Babcock make business decisions.
Just look at Whit's and Frank's joint statement after the 2014 season:
Babcock and Beamer have higher expectations - Jan. 3rd, 2015In his comments, Whit mentions playing for championships three times, and he mentions improved recruiting twice. Virginia Tech is not on track to play for a championship (that could change, with a surge of winning), and recruiting is getting worse; the Hokies are currently ranked #44 in Rivals rankings, just ahead of Wake Forest (#46) and behind Houston (#42) and Rutgers (#43), and are about to strike out on the in-state top ten recruits.
It's classic employee evaluation: sit down with the employee, agree to expectations, document those expectations, and if they are not met … action can justifiably be taken. Jim Weaver never would have done that with Frank. Whit Babcock did. He has set the table.
(Edit: As I was writing this today, rumors started to circulate from three different sources that at least one VT staffer -- it's not clear who -- won't have his/their contract(s) renewed after the season. All VT assistants have contracts that expire after 2015, except for Bud Foster, so this is another sign that change is coming.)
Every indicator I have is pointing to 2015 as Frank's last year, so much so that I'm willing to stick my neck out and say that's what I believe is going to happen. I've been covering VT football for 20 years now, and it's a big risk to lay my credibility on the line like that. But there you have it.
And note that I'm not saying Frank is going to willingly make the decision to step down at season's end. He may or may not. I'm saying that Frank's willingness on the issue doesn't matter, that 2015 is it, regardless of where he lands on any decisions he makes.
That's the premise of the rest of what I'm going to write: it's Frank's last season.
So what do we do with that knowledge? Good question.
Things are Turning Nasty
Here's a post that appeared on the free Football board this morning, just after 8 AM:
Wow. A diehard Hokie fan, actively rooting for the team to lose, including to Virginia, because he so badly wants to see change.
The post is full of venom and anger. Is the poster at one end of the spectrum, which isn't heavily populated? Yes, he is. Do very many Hokie fans want VT to lose out, including to Virginia? Uh, no.
But are a lot of Hokie fans really worked up, even angry? Yes.
Here's a screenshot of the Facebook post for our game recap … note the three straight-up "Fire Beamer" comments:
The rhetoric has definitely ramped up in recent weeks. At various points in the last three seasons (2012-2014), the fans were upset, but the general commentary this season has taken a turn for the worse.
This was a team that was supposed to be better. They had an experienced quarterback, every single skill position player who scored a TD last year was returning, and the defense, after a very good 2014, was bringing almost everyone who mattered back.
My personal viewpoint was that 2015 was Frank's last, best chance for a Coastal Division championship and possibly an ACC championship. Things might go downhill for the 2016 season, with so many defenders slated to leave, but 2015 looked promising. The coaching staff felt that way, as well, based on their preseason demeanor and comments.
But seven games in, they're 3-4, including a 1-2 record in the ACC. Both of VT's losses are in the Coastal, and one of the teams that beat the Hokies, Pittsburgh, is 3-0 in the league.
That's just a tough hill to climb for a team that can't stop finding ways to lose close games. When I look at the talent on the team, I see enough talent to go 6-2 or 5-3 in the Coastal, but those players and the coaching staff are finding new ways to lose games every other week … not every week (see NC State), but every other week (see Pitt and Miami).
Where the fan demeanor really started to turn was the ECU game. Here are TSL's page views so far this football season:
The Ohio State game generated a lot of discussion the day after the game. Then things were quiet through Furman and Purdue. Then Tech lost to ECU, and traffic spiked, not the following Monday (which is normal), but that day. The same occurred the next week when VT lost to Pitt.
The Miami loss, however, did not produce a remarkable spike in page views on that day.
- ECU Saturday: 276,589 page views
- Pitt Saturday: 263,460 page views
- Miami Saturday: 171,049 page views
Interpretation: fans were mad about ECU and Pitt, but grew resigned/apathetic towards the Miami loss. That's a bad transition. We'll see where it goes from here.
What strikes me as odd about some of the fan reaction is how panicky much of it is, as if the Hokies need relief RIGHT NOW, THEY NEED TO MAKE A MOVE RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE IF THEY DON'T, THE PROGRAM IS GOING TO COLLAPSE INTO ETERNAL MEDIOCRITY.
This is evidenced by the #firebeamer hashtags you see in the Facebook postings above. That kind of thing expresses an immediate need for something to happen. That's just fans being fans, but it's still irrational and an unpleasant thing to see.
Waiting
At this point, I have to admit: I got nothin'. It's rare for me to come up dry for a Monday Thoughts, but it's almost 1 o'clock in the afternoon, and this has to be posted in a couple hours, and … I got nothin'.
I'm like this kid in this clip from The Incredibles:
I wouldn't say that I'm waiting for "something amazing," because I don't think something amazing is about to happen, at least not on the field. I thought this would be a pretty good season, and that maybe Frank would coach in 2016 as well (but not beyond that), but with my certainty now that he won't be, I'm just waiting. Waiting to see if they can win enough to qualify for a bowl (I'd hate to see him lose that streak), waiting to see if they have a winning record, waiting to see when things will happen.
Waiting to see if fans will come to their senses and give the man the respect he is due, instead of circling like vultures. I won't hold my breath on that, though. I think you guys reading this are a good group of fans, but there are a lot out there who aren't.
I figured Tech would lose this game, down to almost picking the score exactly (I predicted 31-20), so there wasn't anything unexpected for me Saturday. I have no appetite for analyzing all the little decisions made by a coaching staff that I think is in its final couple of months coaching the team. I might feel differently next week, but this week, I don't feel like picking apart all the things that went wrong and led to the loss.
Instead, I'm just waiting. Waiting to see where it all goes from here.
As for that, here are my predictions from the ECU Monday Thoughts article:
- Pittsburgh: win (loss)
- NC State: loss (win)
- @Miami: loss (loss)
- Duke: win
- @BC: loss
- @GT: loss
- UNC: win
- @Virginia: win
I still think we're looking at a 6-6 finish. I'm convinced (for some reason) that the Hokies will beat Duke. I actually think VT will have the game in hand throughout. I'm not saying we're going to see a blowout, just a game that VT is firmly in control of.
Loss at BC? I still think that. After that, I might swap the GT and UNC results (win at GT, lose to UNC), and I'm sticking with that win prediction over Virginia, even though the Cavs might be a tough out, like last year.
Video Fun With Travon
Since my writing is absolute garbage today, how about I put my video editing skills to work instead?
Travon McMillian had some very impressive runs Saturday. Let's take a look.
There is a lot to get excited about in that highlight reel, more than we have seen since David Wilson left town. Travon's got a great skillset. He's got excellent vision, acceleration and power. He doesn't have the wriggle that Ryan Williams had, but then again, who does?
Play #3 -- the one where Travon cuts it outside, stiff arms a defender, and picks up eight yards, is the biggest reason to get excited about Travon. He's the only running back in Tech's stable who could make anything out of that play, and instead of being a no-gain or a loss, he picked up eight yards.
Travon's power is also impressive on several of the runs shown. The Miami safety that he trucked in Play #2 probably doesn't want any part Travon, after that collision.
I just had a thought: Travon's going to be one of My Favorite Players, 2016 Edition next summer. He's a shoo-in. Too bad for him that doesn't come with a cash prize.
In Closing
Yes, that was short, and again, I apologize for a column that in re-reading it, started off strong but fizzled. At one point, assuming that this is Frank's last year, I asked the question "So what do we do with that knowledge?" But I never answered it.
What's my answer? Relax. If you're itching for change, I think that change is coming soon. (Not this week or next week, but on or around the end of the season.)
If you're hoping for a good ending for Frank (and we all are) … well, that's out of our control. The season could tank, or it could end up well. We don't know. All you can control is the lens through which you view the rest of this season, which is possibly the end of his career. Step back and take the 10,000 foot view. 29 years is a long line in time, and we're at the very end of that line, with just a little left.
Don't get caught up in the minutiae, because if this is the end for Frank, the minutiae -- little coaching decisions like personnel choices, and things like statements made at press conferences about why he called timeouts -- don't matter from here on out. It's all about the big things now: how his exit is handled, if the fans treat him with the respect he deserves, and how we view his overall career, not this game or that, or this decision or that.
None of us can hold back the tide of public opinion. That's evidenced by Facebook, Twitter, and the message boards. What we can do is decide what our part will be in that, and then carry it out.