Just as I suspected, 7-6 feels a lot better than 6-7 would have felt. That was a good win over a solid team on Saturday afternoon, and though people pay a little bit too much attention to bowl results in my opinion, it certainly has us all in a better frame of mind heading into the offseason.
Will Stewart did a pretty awesome job of covering the game in Monday Thoughts, as usual. I'll try to throw in some different perspective on a few other topics,
Available Yards vs. Total Yards
Just looking at the box score, Cincinnati clearly gained more yards than Virginia Tech. 489 to 334 isn't exactly close. However, when you look at the percentage of the available yards that was actually gained by each team, then you'll find that the offenses were much more even than the regular box score shows.
So what exactly does "Available yards" mean? It's an advanced stat that uses starting field position. For example, if the Hokies start the ball on the 50 and drive it in for a touchdown, then they gained all 50 of the yards available to them. However, if they start on their own 20 and the drive ends after just 20 yards gained, they only gained 25% of the yards available to them (20 out of 80).
I threw out the final two "drives" of the game because Tech was running out the clock, and everybody knew they were running the ball. In the drives in which they were actually trying to move the ball and be balanced, the Hokies gained 45.4% of the yards available to them. The exact number was 324 out of 714. Meanwhile, the Bearcats gained 48.4% of the yards available to them. That's only a 3% difference, which you would never guess from looking at the regular box score.
The Hokies began three drives in Cincinnati territory, and thus had fewer available yards to gain than the Bearcats, whose best starting field position all day was the 50 yard line.
As time goes by, I'm beginning to favor advanced stats more and more. They simply paint a better and more accurate figure than regular stats, which don't always tell the whole story. Sure, Cincinnati outgained Tech 489-334, but using the "Available Yards" advanced stats gives a much better look at how this game actually went down, in my opinion.
Recalculating the Rushing Stats: Running game succeeds even more than numbers indicate
I've always despised how college football calculates their rushing stats. Quarterback sacks count against the team rushing totals, and if a team is poor at pass blocking it can really make their rushing stats look out of whack. In the NFL, quarterback sacks are counted against team passing yardage. After all, the offense is attempting to pass the ball, right?
Here's how Tech's running numbers look over the last four games using the college rules. These are the official stats.
Duke: 49 carries for 145 yards, 3.0 yards per carry
Wake: 39 carries for 111 yards, 2.8 yards per carry
UVA: 40 carries for 198 yards, 4.95 yards per carry
Cincy: 44 carries for 210 yards, 4.8 yards per carry
Total: 172 carries for 664 yards, 3.86 yards per carry
Those numbers don't tell the whole story, though. Tech's pass protection has gone downhill over the last four games of the season, and the sack totals look like this…
Duke: 6 for 62 yards
Wake: 5 for 40 yards
UVA: 2 for 6 yards
Cincy: 3 for 27 yards
When you take those sacks out of the equation, the actual VT running game looks much better, and if college football used the NFL method, these would be the rushing stats that everyone would see…
Duke: 43 carries for 207 yards, 4.8 yards per carry
Wake: 34 carries for 151 yards, 4.44 yards per carry
UVA: 38 carries for 204 yards, 5.37 yards per carry
Cincy: 41 carries for 237 yards, 5.78 yards per carry
Total: 156 carries for 799 yards, 5.12 yards per carry
Those are old school Hokie numbers, aren't they? Tech's actual running game has been averaging almost exactly 200 yards per game over the last four contests, as well as well over five yards per carry. The sack numbers really don't tell the whole story, and that's why I wish college football would start keeping up with rushing numbers as the NFL does.
Obviously there are multiple factors to Tech's success on the ground. Let's take a quick look at all of them.
Improved OL play: The Hokies have their best run blockers on the field, and I think everyone is finally getting adjusted to Stacy Searels and his new system. I think Tech has one of the best offensive line coaches in the country, and guys started coming around. Hopefully that continues into next season.
An improved J.C. Coleman: Coleman looks like he has better vision, and he's much tougher to tackle right now than he was earlier in his career. Turnarounds like this, especially in the middle of the season, are not common.
Less bodies simplifies things: Tech was playing four or five running backs, plus Sam Rogers, earlier in the season. With everybody hurt, the decision making process is a lot easier. I think it helps to stick with just a couple of backs and let them get into a rhythm.
Hopefully this sudden improvement continues into next season. It's a big reason why the Hokies won three of their final four games.
The Halftime Adjustments
I was screaming at halftime for the Hokies to run the football, though in public I was a little more tame.
Gotta try to run it more in the second half
— Chris Coleman (@ChrisColemanTSL) December 27, 2014
Cincinnati was #92 in the country in run defense efficiency heading into the Military Bowl, and Tech had been running the ball well for three straight games. I thought Tech could run it on the Bearcats, and I was disappointed that J.C. Coleman only had seven carries in the first half. Boy, did I get my wish or what? Here's how the opening drive of the third quarter went…
Coleman rush for 9
Coleman rush for 5
Coleman rush for 26
Coleman rush for 3
Stroman rush for 17
Motley rush for -1
Brewer incomplete pass
Brewer to Ford for 11 yards
Rogers rush for 3 yards
Rogers rush for no gain
Brewer TD pass to Malleck
Scot Loeffler came out running the football in the third quarter, and the success of the running game helped set up a perfectly executed playaction pass for a touchdown to Ryan Malleck. That was probably Frank Beamer's favorite drive of the season!
Besides running the ball more, Loeffler appeared to make greater use of the Pistol formation in the second half. As most of you know by now, I'm a big advocate of the Pistol because it's a very balanced formation. Tech used Bucky Hodges and Ryan Malleck as in-line tight ends out of the Pistol, and the Bearcats couldn't use Tech's formation to know which side the play was going.
In that picture, the red circles are the outside receivers, and the two blue circles on the edge of the line represent Hodges and Malleck, and of course that’s J.C. Coleman lined up behind the quarterback. As you can see, that's a completely neutral formation. It's perfectly balanced from left to right, and there's no way that the defense can know whether the run is going left, right or up the middle. I've always been a huge fan of the Pistol, and I hope we use it more next season.
The Cincinnati Offense was Impressive
I don't know about you, but I was impressed by the Cincinnati offense. Gunner Kiel can play, the wide receivers are good and athletic, and the offensive line was one of the best the Hokies have faced all season.
The Bearcats rarely lost yardage during 2014. They were one of the best teams in the country in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed. Meanwhile, Tech was one of the best defenses in the country in sacks and tackles for loss, so something had to give. The Hokies only had four tackles for loss and two sacks, and that's about as well as anyone can hope to do against this particular VT defense.
That says something about Cincinnati, I think. I thought they were good coming into the game, but they were better than I thought. They are well-coached. Even the fourth string quarterback looked somewhat competent when he was forced into the action.
Overall, I thought the Bearcats were one of the better teams the Hokies faced this year. Ohio State is obviously the best, but behind them are Georgia Tech, Cincinnati and Duke. It's been an odd year, but I do feel like Virginia Tech beat three of the four best teams they faced. The challenge going forward will be playing more consistent football, but that should come as the offense matures.
It's kind of odd to give compliments to the other team when you beat them by 16 points, but I consider that a good thing. The Hokies blew out a team that impressed me. I'll take that.
A thin margin for error
Unless you outclass your opponent in talent, there is a very thin margin for error in college football. Florida State is loaded, so they can afford to fart around with all their opponents until the fourth quarter, but Virginia Tech doesn't have that luxury.
Five of Tech's six losses were by one score. On the other hand, wins over Duke and UVA were very narrow margins in favor of the Hokies, and the Ohio State game obviously could have gone either way. The Hokies were pretty darn close to playing for the ACC Championship. They were also dangerously close to going 5-7.
Had the Hokies stopped Georgia Tech on fourth and 15, and had they managed to score one stinking field goal in regulation against Wake Forest, they would be 5-3 in the ACC. The win over the Yellow Jackets would have knocked GT back to 5-3 in the league, and would have given VT the tiebreaker. In that scenario, Virginia Tech would have gone to the ACC Championship Game. They were quite literally just a couple of plays away.
On the other hand, they were also a play away from losing to UVA and Duke. The Hokies couldn't complete a deep ball all season, yet they magically got one to fall into place against the Hoos that eventually decided the football game.
Had that Michael Brewer pass to Bucky Hodges fallen incomplete, as just about every other deep ball attempt did in 2014, we'd be sitting here lamenting a 5-7 season that saw the bowl streak and the UVA streak snapped. Instead, it was complete, and we are celebrating another winning season and a feel-good bowl victory.
That's how close it was for the Hokies this year. Two plays in one direction, and we're playing for the ACC Championship. One play in the other direction, and, well…I don't even want to think about it. Close games are fun, but only if you win. Otherwise they will drive you completely nuts. I'll take a blowout over a close game any day of the week.
Hopefully as the Hokies gain more experience and build more depth on the offensive side of the ball, they won't have such a thin margin for error. Things should begin going in the right direction next year. In fact, you can argue that it already has.
2013 vs. 2014
Here's how the 2013 offense stacks up against the 2014 offense, from a statistical standpoint.
Rushing 2013: 119.8 ypg
Rushing 2014: 147.9 ypg
Tech's total rushing numbers took a big jump from 2013 to 2014. Hopefully they can go up another 30 yards per game next year.
Yards per carry 2013: 3.2
Yards per carry 2014: 3.8
The Hokies averaged over a half-yard more per carry in 2014 than they did in 2013, despite not having a mobile quarterback.
QB Rating 2013: 121.2
QB Rating 2014: 118.7
The statistical difference between Michael Brewer and Logan Thomas is negligible.
Sacks allowed 2013: 33
Sacks allowed 2014: 34
The difference between last year and this year is one measly sack.
Total offense 2013: 356 yards per game
Total offense 2014: 365.3 yards per game
This isn't a big difference, but Tech did improve despite playing so many freshmen and having so many injuries.
I'm not sure what the advanced stats will say, as they haven't been updated since before all the bowl games started. We'll take a deeper look at this once all the games have concluded.
Coming up…
That's pretty much all I've got. As I said, Will did a great job covering the game with yesterday's article, and there isn't much more I can add. Instead, I'm already focusing on the future. Later this week, we'll begin our offseason coverage, including an in-depth look at scholarship numbers and potential attrition, as well as a position-by-position look at each unit and how they project going forward. With Signing Day a little more a month away, there are exciting times ahead.